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The Future of Microsoft |
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AnchorDesk Staff ZDNet AnchorDesk Tuesday, September 5, 2000 |
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Think IBM. Now that Microsoft has 35,000 employees, annual revenues of about $20 billion and a lock on the operating systems and browser markets, the company will never be an insignificant force in the technology sector, even as desktop operating systems become less important. Whether it will be much more is another question. The Microsoft bureaucracy is growing like kudzu and stifling the company's already compromised ability to innovate. The rate of attrition of the Redmond giant's best minds is at an all-time high. Microsoft can remain it's gargantuan self and survive. But if you want to know what that looks like, look to IBM in the 1980s: bloated, boring and a far cry from innovative. BETTER
Radical reinvention. Microsoft could radically reinvent itself. Bill Gates knows this must happen or he wouldn't have described Microsoft's plan for Dot Net as a "bet the company" strategy. The Dot Net strategy gives Microsoft some momentum. But so far, it's all talk. Unless we see more interesting things from Microsoft, I'm doubtful it can regain its reputation as the industry leader. But if Bill can pull it off again -- if he can reinvent the company in a hurry -- he'll create a better future than the one described above. BEST
Split up. The best thing that could happen to Microsoft, its consumers and its investors, is for the company to be chopped into two or more parts. This would leave us with two companies, both with obscene amounts of cash and stables of smart people. The resulting companies would be freed from the anchors that now weigh down innovation. Recall the IBM phenomenon: Huge research and development budgets rarely lead to huge discovery. Likewise, Microsoft's monstrous R&D bankroll is certainly not paying off. By contrast, two smaller companies would be freed from spending so much time and energy preserving the legacy products. Instead, they could move aggressively into the next generation of computing. The breakup of AT&T fostered tremendous innovation and boosted shareholder value. The breakup of Microsoft would do the same. Ask me which path Microsoft will really take and I'll tell you I don't know, but I do know that the choice will determine whether Microsoft remains a force in the industry or a boring behemoth. What's the best path for Microsoft? Hit the talkback button and tell me why, and then take our QuickPoll and tell me which path you think the company will really take. You can also take your soapbox to my Berst Alerts Forum and speak to the crowd.
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