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AnchorDesk

David Coursey
Road Warrior Week, day 4: The future of wireless services

David Coursey
Executive Editor, AnchorDesk
Thursday, March 28, 2002
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For the past couple of days, I've been writing a lot about how you can go "ultralight," hitting the road without your laptop but staying connected to your vital apps and services. Today I'd like to look at a slightly futuristic solution to the same problem--a solution over which the titans of software and telecom are already tussling.

First, though, take a look at your cell phone. I mean it: Pick up your phone and take a good look at it. Not much, is it? Some buttons, a screen, a fancy faceplate maybe.

Software companies like Microsoft and Symbian, handset manufacturers like Nokia, and wireless carriers like Verizon and Sprint look at that same phone and see the world's next great development platform. And they're already drawing battle lines over who will control it.

Cell phones already do way more than conveying conversations. You've already got phones that let you trade stocks, exchange instant messages, find out where you are, and play games. But that's just the start. Handspring's Treo and other "smart phones" are the bleeding edge of a trend that I expect to gain big momentum over the next 24 to 36 months.

THE QUESTION IS, who will decide what kinds of next-generation apps will be available on those phones?

Microsoft has made the case that wireless should be an open platform that would let independent developers write to a single standard, knowing they'll run across a variety of devices and wireless networks.

That's not too surprising: When the company says, "open platform," it means some variant of the Pocket PC OS. To Microsoft, the smart phones of tomorrow are an opportunity to extend Windows into every information device you use. From its experience with the PC, Microsoft knows that owning the OS opens the door to selling other apps and services.

Wireless carriers are understandably leery of this. Like everyone else, they've seen how Microsoft has turned PC hardware into a commodity and vanquished most of its software competitors. That's why these wireless carriers favor a model more like AOL's: They'd like define for themselves the kinds of services their customers get.

This "walled-garden" approach clearly has some customer benefits: AOL can create a seamless world that's easy to navigate and feature rich. If wireless services followed this model, customers could wind up with a choice of rich environments, offering many of the same types of tools, much like they now have a choice between AOL and MSN.

BUT THERE'S A THIRD WAY, one that combines open development with some degree of carrier control. Imagine what happens when the carriers each decide on one of several standard platforms, and developers decide which platforms they want to support. You'd have a wireless world made up of many different walled gardens, each with its own rules and customs, but open to outsiders if they're willing to play by the gardener's rules.

I think this last scenario could be best for consumers: They'd have their choice of services, and no single company would own the platform. Think of it as the division in the PC world among Windows, Mac, and Linux--only with somewhat more even distribution of market share.

Of course, the analogy isn't exact. If PCs were just like cell phones, you'd have to use an AOL-supplied PC to access AOL. In the phone world, you have hardware vendors who've aligned themselves with specific operating systems, and others aligned with specific carriers. The dynamics are completely different.

That's why nobody understands how this will all play out. But the next two or three years could be to the wireless business what the early to mid 80s were to PCs and the mid to late 90s were for the Net--a period in which vendors compete violently for customers before standards are set in concrete. As the wise man said, it's gonna look like knights in armor jousting on Jello. And for now, road warriors like you and me are just spectators.

Which do you think will win the battle for your phone, "open" platforms or the walled garden? What kinds of services do you want on your cell phone? TalkBack to me!

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