Android to overtake Windows in 2016, says Gartner
Summary: Gartner says the world's most popular desktop operating system will be relegated to second place as the world's most popular mobile operating system takes over. But no rush: 2016 is when it's mean to happen.
By the end of 2016, there will be 2.3 billion computers, tablets and smartphones running Android, and only 2.28 billion Windows-powered devices, says research firm Gartner.
(Now, it's worth mentioning that Gartner's analysis doesn't always match up with... reality. Its predictive figures are relatively spot on and in line with other research firms, however.)
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But there's no rush. As PC shipments decline in the run up to the next-generation Windows 8 operating system, it comes as no surprise as the rise of the post-PC device segment. Tablets to smartphones versus the traditional PC and notebook.
Gartner says that by the end of this year there will be 1.5 billion Windows devices and 608 million devices using Android. Let's compare this to the figures we already know about.
Windows' market share currently stands at 44 percent as of September, according to Net Applications.
In June, Microsoft said it had sold more than 600 million copies of Windows 7. Bump this by a month and the numbers will be about the same, if not slightly higher, because in July both Windows 7 and Windows XP were level pegging at 42 percent, according to the usage analytics tool. Ergo, 600 million copies of Windows 7 meant about the same number of copies for Windows XP. Double the number, and we're looking at 1.2 billion copies of Windows 7 and XP alone, not including Windows Server or Windows Vista, or other versions.
Android's market share currently stands at 17.4 percent, again according to Net Applications, but this only includes Android 2.3 and Android 4.0, the two most popular versions of Android currently on supported phones.
Breaking down the figures and using similar logic, Android currently stands at more than 500 million from September, according to Google, with more than 1.3 million new activations per day. Breaking out the calculator and seventh grade math, that's about 554.6 million activations of Android devices currently on the market.
By 2016, it's likely that the post-PC market will include devices of all ranges -- smartphones will be indistinguishable from tablets and tablets will be commonplace, while a PC is a relic of the early-21st century. But that's another discussion altogether and one for another time -- if it hadn't already been done to death.
And even then, by 2016 we may only be figments of the ether's imagination if those crafty Mayan's get their way.
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Talkback
More brain dead nonsense from Gartner
I know. My prediction will be
Gartner-Wrong
They may be right.
Flawed Numbers, Flawed Response!
At least in Windows XP, I didn't have to worry about leaky firewalls owned by Microsoft, that were always letting both Microsoft and their Proprietary Partners in to steal my info and data. I could use some hacker made Firewall Controls and keep em all out!
Now with Windows 8 we have a Proprietary Firewall Holier than the Pope, guarding our Internet door to the Cyberworld. Where DRM (Digital Rectal Manipulation) PWNS us all on a daily basis. When on Linux Based OS's and Android is one of them, we have NSA's own developed Security Enhanced Linux kernel even in Android now!
It wasn't that long ago that the Head of the FBI said, "Don't do your banking or make purchases online from a Windows based computer. Instead use a Live Linux Distro running from in a VM, preferably from a DVD or USB drive to surf the web, do online banking and make your purchases. Use a distro like Ubuntu with NSA's SE Linux and you are inherently safer than even using Apple's Mac OS X too..... even not in a Live Distro!
Now I also have 7 Android run devices and only one of those is being counted by Gartner. But I use two old Android phones for TV remotes and media servers. My Samsung TV runs Android w/ Google TV. I also have Three Android Tablets, still used everyday (actually one is HP Touchpad w/ Linux based WebOS and Android JB). My present active Smartphone is Samsung Galaxy S3 w/ Android, while my wife uses a iPhone 4. So only two real proprietary run devices in the whole house! :D .....and that Apple iPhone will soon fly south to a recycling bin, when she buys a Samsung Galaxy S4!
If....... Gartner was really paying attention, most of the active Android Smartphones have been only activated in the last two years and Google's Activation rate exceeds 1.7 Million devices a day Globally and those are just the numbers for Google Devices with Certified Google Services. If you throw in the Chinese and Indian markets, God only knows how many Android devices are actually being activated daily. Google earlier this year said they'd break 1 Billion Activations by August/September and that's 250 million more than what they said were active in March. So that proves out their own Activation rates and the fact that most active Android devices today are new or near new!
If you and Gardner had brains...... and could count more than the fingers on one hand, you all might realize that Linux actually owns the Computing World we live in today! ......and that's because it has Military Grade Level 6 Non-Proprietary NSA Security Built In!!! ......which is a whole lot more than we can say for both Microsoft and Apple!!! ;-P
BTW..... Samsung alone sold 220 Million Android devices last year alone and they are slated to sell over 300 Million Android based Smartphones this year. If you counted Wifi Only Android devices too, Google Android is more than Doubling that growth rate. So in effect just Samsung alone is responsible for around a Million Official Android Activations a Day right now!
Android to overtake Windows in 2016, says Gartner
MS on tablets & smartphones
remember when ?
Not so sure ...
I can imagine Android and Linux merging with Linux and escaping Google's closed dev process (Andrux or Lindroid, perhaps?). At which point, what we currently think of as Android and Linux will end up in routers, switches, alarm clocks, fridges, etc. - basically, most limited function devices ... much like it is today.
This shouldn't be a surprise.
HOWEVER, I very much doubt we'll see Andrux/Lindroid take over the desktop, especially in the enterprise: It's just too wild, wild west for most end-users & consumers to enjoy a safe experience.
we aren't far off from what you suggest
That being said, i disagree with the premise of this article. You can't compare all devices running android (phones, tablets, chromebooks) with all devices running windows (pcs, netbooks, phones, tablets). Although it can be argued that both operating systems run on similar hardware across the spectrum, android clearly has the advantage in phones and there are more phones than pcs per capita (if that makes sense).
happened already
Linux is already more used operating system than Microsoft NT or CE operating sysems everywhere else than on laptop/workstation setups.
It is just funny how Linux has managed to conquer whole world under all these big analytic firms and Microsoft/Apple fans noses. Now only the visible and followed market sector is left.
Android is Linux distribution
Android is Linux and it's Open Source!
I have to agree with Loverock Davidson-
On a side note, I don't really think that tablets and smart phones will get rid of the PC. Sure they may outnumber them, and that is to be expected. For example, everyone in a house may own a smart phone, maybe there is one PC in the house, and of course one or more tablets.
When I say PC I mean desktop or laptop.
With the new MS stuff coming out no one can say for certain how it will go. MS may flop or it might take off.
It doesn't seem to matter how much they try
... so?
You're amazing, Loverock Davidson.
You're a blinkered, myopic, dinosaur, my friend.
Amazing, Loverock Davidson- has
Meaningless
A phone is NOT comparable to a PC.
it is