2001: A big year for little devices

2000 was a good year for mobile devices. PDA shipments nearly doubled compared with last year and cell-phone shipments hit about 10 million per week, according Gartner Group. But 2001 will be even better. Here's why.

A sure sign the PDA market is maturing is that different manufacturers are working different niches. Eventually, this will lead to products that are more in tune with what users want. Sony is going after consumer users with content from its consumer business. Handspring is zeroing in on those with a yen for add-on products. Palm and Microsoft are both targeting the enterprise market, though with the addition of the Stinger phone to its lineup, Microsoft will also be addressing the wireless crowd.

In addition, the shortage in flash memory and LCDs brought on by the tremendous demand for cell phones won't be as bad by the middle of the year, according to Gartner analyst Abha Garg. With more parts to spare, manufacturers will be able to focus on developing new PDAs instead of having to worry about getting enough of their current units on shelves to meet demand.

From what I'm hearing from manufacturers and sources, expect to see at least eight new PDAs shipping by the end of next year. And you can expect these units to come with color LCDs, smaller cases, and built-in wireless communications and connectivity. Expansion products will still be hot -- and some may even steal the spotlight from the PDAs themselves.

What else is to come in 2001? PDAs and cell phones will continue to converge in smart phones, giving users the features of both devices -- Web access and contact information -- in one. Kyocera, Samsung, and Sony have already said products are on the way, and judging from the excitement surrounding this week's shipment of the first Handspring VisorPhone module, which turns Visor PDAs into cell phones, the market should be more than receptive.

Add to that the frenzy that ensued earlier this month when Handspring put its 1 millionth Visor, a Visor Prism, and the first VisorPhone module up for auction on eBay. The combo -- which retails for about $750 -- sold for somewhere around $4,400. That both devices were also autographed by Handspring's chief product officer and one of the recognized fathers of the PDA, Jeff Hawkins, who has taken on rock-star status, may have helped, but the high price was a sign that people are champing at the bit for this type of device and module.

Also in 2001, look for smart phones to come in smaller packages than their clunky predecessors. The prototypes of Microsoft's Stinger and Samsung's Palm OS-based smart phone that I've seen are smaller than such forerunners as the Qualcomm pdQ or Nokia Communicator 9000. In addition, neither phone depends on the deployment of 3G or high-speed networks; these devices use current wireless networks, and will evolve to support higher-speed networks as they become available.

That's some of what I think will happen in the mobile market next year. TalkBack to me with what you think will happen and what you want from your PDA of the future.