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Blodget: MicroHoo 'is gonna be a disaster'

"It's gonna be a disaster." That's how Silicon Alley Insider founder and Web pundit Henry Blodget characterized the outcome of the Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo, if and when it goes through.
Written by Mary Jo Foley, Senior Contributing Editor

"It's gonna be a disaster."

That's how Silicon Alley Insider founder and Web pundit Henry Blodget characterized the outcome of the Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo, if and when it goes through. (Blodget seems to believe it's more a "when" than an "if," as CEO "Steve Ballmer is a guy who hates to lose.")

Blodget shared his opinions of the deal during his appearance on February 11 at a meeting of the New York Software Industry Association (NYSIA).

Blodget, who had been predicting the Microsoft offer for Yahoo for months, said Microsoft was "very tactical and intelligent on how they made their bid." Yet Blodget said he still doesn't see the pair as fitting together well without a lot of overlap.

Since 1995, when Microsoft rolled out Internet Explorer 1.0, Microsoft has been looking for ways to gain Internet traction.

"They've been running a distant third for thirteen years," Blodget told the NYSIA audience. "It's been a pathetic performance."

Blodget bristled at folks who've likened Microsoft to General Electric, with tentacles in myriad businesses. Microsoft isn't a company that can rest on its laurels and rely on its existing businesses to fuel it, he said.

"GE has been a conglomorate for years," he said, while Microsoft, until fairly recently has been all about Windows and Office.

Blodget also wondered how Microsoft will be able to balance its competing Internet and software interests. Any new business idea from MicroHoo that might compete with Windows or Office will get short shrift, he predicted.

Blodget said he doubted that Microsoft will axe Yahoo properties -- its portal, search, mail and other services -- that duplicate or compete with offerings from Microsoft.

"Microsoft would be insane to pay $50 billion and replace everything (from Yahoo)" with Microsoft's competing brands, he said. He predicted that Microsoft will use the Yahoo brand to clear up its own confusing and ever-changing "Live" branding strategy.

Not every Microsoft watcher is predicting doom if the Yahoo deal is consumated. Over on LiveSide.Net, Kip Kniskern (almost) convinced me there's an upside that Microsoft hasn't spelled out publicly. Kniskern's logic:

"According to IDC, a MSFT-YHOO combination would put Microsoft at some 17% of online advertising, to Google's falling 23%. That's not text based search ads, that's all online advertising, which is what Microsoft is after, and which, by the way, is growing at its fastest pace ever. It's why MSN makes sense, it's why adCenter makes sense, it's why acquiring Yahoo! portals makes sense, and it's why acquiring all the eyeballs that a combined Hotmail/Yahoo! Mail and IM merger bring to that advertising platform makes game changing sense.

"A Yahoo! acquisition puts Microsoft in a strongly dominant position in mail and IM, where Google has been making inroads but would be far behind the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Mail and IM are important because they are sticky. Search isn't sticky."

Increasingly, it's sounding like Yahoo-Microsoft is inevitable. If it works, Ballmer will look like a genius. If it fails, it just might be his swan song....

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