Can the networks support next-gen smartphone traffic?
As the next generation of mobile devices hits the market---iPhone, Pre and Android-based devices---the next question is whether there's the infrastructure in place to support them. Are we headed into a cellular black hole?
As Rory Cellan-Jones points out, O2 has the dominance on the smartphone market as it won both of the contracts for the Apple iPhone and the Palm Pre. He is concerned with the stability of their cellular network with thousands of these powerful smartphones on their network, potentially using bandwidth on a scale of netbooks or laptops.
I've already shown how mobile broadband work outside the house. Even though mobile broadband speeds stay relatively constant throughout the day, 3G simply isn't enough for some of the advanced features that smartphones have nowadays.
Something I mention from time to time is the 9/11 effect. To put it simply:
"When (justified) mass panic ensues, everybody tries to call everybody else and brings the phone network to a standstill - because the phone network is like a motorway/highway. There’s a finite amount of space and if too many people use it, it becomes slow and eventually stops."
Consider this on a slower scale, and you will build up an image of how the networks will crumble under the weight of individual bandwidth use.
One of the main non-invasive ways of reducing the load on the mobile networks is the use of femtocells. Even though they would only be used in the home or the office they would enable overall bandwidth to be maintained. These femtocells allow the mobile network to be relaxed for a time whilst the home/office broadband took over.
Currently, theoretical mobile and cellular broadband speeds are estimated at roughly 3Mbps with some networks rolling out across the UK, Germany, and others, up to 7.2Mbps HSDPA. However as I have pointed out before, the mobile web is disappointing at best, even in an inner-city environment. It depends entirely on contention. If more people are buying and using advanced features on smartphones - uploading high-resolution pictures to Flickr or Facebook and videos to YouTube - it will slow everyone down.
"The advent of the iPhone 3Gs has only accelerated [high-bandwidth use from smartphones], with Google reporting that uploads to YouTube from a mobile soared by 400% in the days after the launch of the first video-capable iPhone.
But if my experience is anything to go by, users of either of these phones may hit heavy traffic on the web as they try to surf, download and share information and pictures online."
Ofcom, the UK governmental office of communications which concerns itself with mobile network coverage, recently released visuals of 3G coverage for the United Kingdom. To see the difference between overall coverage of the UK from all networks and O2's 3G coverage is interesting. Add the the Apple iPhone and Palm Pre and the ability to potentially use a lot of bandwidth and it's possible that O2 can't cover the entire country. The US is similar in this respect, covering the major cities but leaving "the middle bit" out.
Of course, with my experience, had I spoken to the mobile networks public relations or press office in regards to this issue, I can assure they would say everything is fine, and that the infrastructure will evolve in time.
Unless they can generate a technology which works like the draft specification of 802.11n but transport it to cellular technologies, the mobile networks will crumble sooner than we know it.