Cloud boom or cloud bubble?

Summary:Clouds will bring business model success to some open source companies, while for others it will lead only to grief.

A bubble
An Evans Data survey saying 40% of application developers want to sell their stuff from the clouds, and the resulting backlash against clouds, leads to the obvious question.

Are we about to face a cloud boom or a cloud bubble?

The answer, in my view, is it's a little of both.

There is something inherently frothy about every new technology. I can't remember one, in all my 25 years covering this business, that did not begin with unbridled enthusiasm, followed by tears, but then followed by real progress.

This was true for the PC, for LANs, for multimedia, the Internet, even open source. Each new trend is an open door, to which everyone rushes. But not everyone gets through.

Clouds are going to be that way. Some applications will adopt well to SaaS -- some already have. Others won't and in a few years we'll wonder why we thought they would.

This is just the way of the technology world. Clouds will bring business model success to some open source companies, while for others it will lead only to grief. This does not make the cloud vision false.

Just, for those of us looking forward, a bit cloudy.[poll id=99]

Topics: Open Source, Browser, Cloud, Emerging Tech

About

Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist since 1978, and has covered technology since 1982. He launched the Interactive Age Daily, the first daily coverage of the Internet to launch with a magazine, in September 1994.

zdnet_core.socialButton.googleLabel Contact Disclosure

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Related Stories

The best of ZDNet, delivered

You have been successfully signed up. To sign up for more newsletters or to manage your account, visit the Newsletter Subscription Center.
Subscription failed.