Forecasts for the smartphone industry used to add little value as things changed quickly, however over the last couple of years the market has settled down and the changes have not been drastic at all. IDC just issued their four year forecast that appears reasonable given the current state of affairs.
We have seen significant growth in smartphone sales, but IDC forecasts that this growth will slow to single digits in North America by 2017. That makes sense given the saturation of smartphones with a reported 200 million smartphones in active use on this continent.
Android will continue its domination with worldwide share expected to stay in the upper 70 percent. iOS is predicted to stay pretty consistent at mid to upper 14 percent, likely due to their high ASP and fact that other smartphone platforms offer equally compelling experiences. Windows Phone is predicted to have the most growth from 3.9 percent to 7 percent by 2018 and IDC considered the new Windows Phone partners here too. BlackBerry is forecast to continue falling from 1 percent (2014) to 0.3 percent by 2018.
We know that Apple's iPhone is the most expensive smartphone available, but I was a bit shocked how its average selling price (ASP) is at least double, and in some cases almost triple, that of competing smartphone platforms. The iPhone leads in ASP at $649 in 2014 with BlackBerry at $339, Windows Phone at $265, and Android at $247. US consumers buy the iPhone thinking it is just $100 or $200 because they have bought into the subsidy model, but the real cost is much higher.</p
- IDC report: Smartphone shipments pass 1 billion in a year for the first time in history
- IDC: Windows Phone sees largest year-over-year increase, Android still dominates
- IDC, Microsoft at odds over future Windows Phone market share