IDC, Microsoft at odds over future Windows Phone market share

Summary:Microsoft projects Windows Phone will have market share of 15 percent in 2018. IDC projects 10 percent share for Windows Phone in 2017. The old prediction from IDC: 20 percent Windows Phone share in 2015. Keep guessing folks.

One of the key assumptions behind the Microsoft purchase of Nokia's device and services unit was that Windows Phone could garner 15 percent market share in 2018. Some folks on a conference call found that assumption optimistic. Turns out IDC does too.

Microsoft dished out the following slide to justify its Nokia device purchase.

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Given that Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer mentioned BlackBerry repeatedly it's clear where he company thinks it'll gain market share. However, IDC projects the following market share for 2017.

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Let's get real, both parties are guessing. Keep in mind that IDC was way too optimistic about Windows Phone just a few years ago. In 2011, IDC projected 20 percent market share for Windows Phone by 2015.

Rest assured, there's a lot of growth to be had. IDC is projecting that smartphones will hit the 1 billion unit mark in 2013 as mobile phones grow at a 7.3 percent clip. In 2017, IDC projects that the smartphone market will hit 1.7 million shipments.

Overall, the smartphone landscape will continue to be dominated by Android and iOS, but Windows Phone should take BlackBerry's market position and potentially poach from Android.

Topics: Smartphones, Android, iOS, Microsoft, Mobility, Nokia

About

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CN... Full Bio

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