BetUS.com has posted odds on a variety of scenarios for the iPhone. I've added my thoughts and comments below each entry in italics.
- Consumers are reported camping out waiting for an iPhone - 3/1 Almost a certainty. I can even think of a few on the ZDNet crew who might have to get the sleeping bag out!
- Initial iPhones get recalled - 30/1 I'd have placed this as nearer 200/1. Any recall would surely shake investor confidence in Apple and short of iPhones going China Syndrome on people, I don't see a recall being likely.
- iPhone sells at least 12 Million units in 2008 - 5/6 No way.
- Apple’s stock jumps at least 10% in value in regards to the price on 6/30/07 - 1/2 Possible, but I'll be surprised if the peak isn't followed by some sort of correction.
- Consumers pay at least three times the original price ($1500) on ebay - 2/1 Sure, there are plenty of suckers about.
- The screen breaks/cracks like first generation nano - 150/1 I think that there will be stories of breakage, but these will be isolated cases or as a result to stress-testing.
- There are mass reports of the battery life being less than the promised 8 hours -10/1 Likely ...
- Someone is trampled while trying to get an iPhone - 20/1 Nah, Apple users are a gentle sort. Well, as long as you don't say that Leopard looks like Vista ...
- iPhone spontaneously combusts - 150/1 I hope not, for Apple's sake.
- How many iPhones will Apple sell in the first month? Over 1.2 Million Units - 5/6 Under 1.2 Million Units - 5/6 My money would go on Apple selling about 1 million in the first month.
Note: For the record, I don't own any Apple stocks and I don't plan on placing any bets.