The guessing game swirling around Motorola's Xoom tablet sure is fun to watch. One analyst is estimating that Motorola Mobility has sold about 100,000 Xoom units so far. The big question is whether those sales are disappointing or decent.
This 100,000 guesstimate from Deutsche Bank comes as other analysts have marked Xoom sales as a disappointment. In fact, the Xoom disappointment drumbeat has been picking up for weeks. Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff isn't ready to throw the Xoom under the bus yet.
In a research note, Modoff writes:
The latest update to the Android developer website showing OS versioning indicates that 0.2% of Android devices run on version 3.0 aka Honeycomb. As far as we know, the Motorola Xoom is the only Honeycomb product on the market. We currently estimate that the Android installed base at around 50 million units, 0.2% of which is equivalent to about 100,000 units. There is probably some rounding error in our calculation, but we any such differences are likely minor. This level of tablet sales is in line with our estimates of 50k units in Q1 and 150k units in Q2. While we believe Street expectations may be a bit higher 100k units after only two months on the market is a decent start.
A few things to note here:
- There are a lot of semantic issues. If you compare Xoom to iPad's sales, Motorola Mobility's launch is a "disappointment."
- If you forget about the iPad, 100,000 units are "decent."
- We'll know more about Xoom figures when Motorola Mobility reports its first quarter earnings in a few weeks.
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