My top five predictions for SaaS

I see IDC is charging $3500 for a report that, to judge from the published list of its top ten predictions, states the blinding obvious about SaaS.

Here, for free, are my top five predictions that you won't read in IDC's report:

• Large ISVs will continue to shoot themselves in the foot by introducing hosted versions of their conventional products that simultaneously validate the on-demand model while failing to replicate any of its advantages.
• The blogosphere will turn against Google for failing to launch a hosted Office challenge to Microsoft. Meanwhile Amazon will quietly carry on expanding its presence in the on-demand market without anyone noticing.
• The on-demand model will entrench itself in a range of application areas unnoticed by the mainstream software vendors, including corporate purchasing, HR management, travel and expense management and  website marketing and analytics.
• Integration with installed software will become the major obstacle to enterprise adoption of on-demand applications, despite vendors making large strides in integration capabilities during the year.
• New licensing and billing models will gain ground and undermine the competitiveness of conventional subscription licensing, even as the mainstream software industry moves towards adopting the model.

I could go on but I only have a few minutes to spare just now, so I'll leave it at that. If you want to know what everyone else thinks about the prospects for SaaS, then go ahead and buy the IDC report. If you want to know what's really going to happen, all you have to do is keep reading this blog.