Opinion: The DOJ is DOA in its move against Microsoft

I'm not sure if Janet Reno and her troops live in the same universe we do, but I am sure they don't live in the same time period. Apparently they're still celebrating New Year's 1995 in Washington, D.C.

The Department of Justice's complaints today that Microsoft has used anticompetitive tactics to ramrod Internet Explorer 4.0 into PCs is about two years too late -- and betrays a complete ignorance of where the computer industry is today.

I mean, come on -- the network is the computer. Would Novell ship Netware without a network protocol stack? Would Sun ship Solaris without TCP/IP support, remote procedure calls and applications for accessing network resources? No.

Microsoft has every right to ship an OS that integrates network connectivity. It's just plain ignorant to say that IE 4.0, an interim step in the evolution towards a Windows with seamless network integration, is anticompetitive.

After all, Microsoft has so much catching up to do. The Windows platform is the worst network interface out there. The Microsoft OSes are way behind the competition when it comes to network integration. NT still isn't a multiuser system. Windows 95 gags on Microsoft-made network applications, not just software from Netscape, White Pine and others. The integration of IE 4.0 into Windows 98 is absolutely necessary if 85 percent of the desktops in the world are going to realize the potential of the Internet. According to Reno's logic, Microsoft can stop development of IE where it is today. Would that be good for consumers? No.

Why? Because even if Microsoft shipped Windows with a deinstaller for IE 4.0 desktop integration that worked worth a damn, Netscape and Sun will never ship a product that adequately takes the place of IE 4.0-level Web services.

In effect, if the Department of Justice says, "Microsoft, you must let Netscape have a place on the desktop and you must implement Java according to Sun's interpretation of the licensing agreement," those companies will use the ruling as a competitive tool against Microsoft. That's like unleashing termites in an already aging house. In effect, Microsoft would be crippled when it came to differentiating its products from the competition. And the competition's stuff is as slow as, or breaks down just as much as, Microsoft's Web integration systems, ActiveX and JDirect.

As usual, Justice is waking up to the realities of the market after the market has decided a product's fate. There has been no exodus from Windows to another desktop platform due to the rise of the Internet. Netscape's market share has steadily eroded; the company has not produced a viable alternative to the Windows desktop -- even its Windows desktop integration will require Windows. Java is broken for the time being, but the market seems to be gathering energy to force Sun and Microsoft to find a solution.

In fact, the real action today aims several years ahead, at the dawn of digital television. Microsoft is dancing into position to control the digital television application environment, buying and investing in companies in order to dictate the direction the market will take. As usual, Microsoft is winning by being behind the times, letting other companies lead in streaming technologies, compression, delivery architectures, and so on. Whatever wins will be absorbed.

Old-fashioned antitrust strategies aren't going to work against Microsoft. The Department of Justice had better learn to use scenarios to predict where Gates is headed. If Janet Reno wants to "control" Microsoft, it's time she cracks a book to study the tactics of Napoleon, Bill Gates' hero. Napoleon didn't win his empire by sheer daring or brilliance, but by inspired application of tried-and-true tactics to novel situations. He overwhelmed Europe by providing focus for French Revolutionary zeal in the same way Bill Gates uses money to conquer realms pioneered by others. It's always too late to fight that strategy when you wait for the conqueror's next target to become clear.

Mitch Ratcliffe is president of Internet/Media Strategies Inc. (www.ratcliffe.com), a Tacoma, Wash. consultancy. He can be emailed at godsdog@ratcliffe.com.