The $155 iPhone

That's true.  You can now pick up an 8GB iPhone for $155. There are a few catches.  You have to live in Germany, sign up to T-Mobile, and take out a monthly contract that costs almost as much as the iPhone itself. 

How long until Apple starts to subsidize a cheaper US iPhone?

Some are taking these price cuts to mean that a new 3G iPhone is on the way, but I'm not too sure that I buy that.  After all, if Apple or T-Mobile wanted to get rid of inventory it could drop the price in the US and achieve the same result.  My gut says that this has more to do with stalling sales than a new model.  The normal evolution for cellphones is for the price to drop over time.  There's no reason to think that the iPhone was somehow immune to the same effect.

It's now going to be interesting to see what other European carriers do.  If we next see Orange and O2 start to drop prices then this is a sign that the carriers are treating the iPhone like any other premium cellphone - hype it, sell it high while they can and then dump the price once the shine wears off.

But when will the US see a price cut?  My guess is that it's not going to happen any time soon.  While the Europeans might be getting bored with the iPhone, sales still appear to be strong this side of the Atlantic.  Strong sales mean no cheap iPhones.

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Thoughts?