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Will XP's 'execution stay' for emerging markets apply to other countries?

Some pundits seem to have forgotten that when Microsoft initially granted Windows XP five more months to live, back in 2007, the company left itself a loophole.
Written by Mary Jo Foley, Senior Contributing Editor

Speculation continues to swirl as to when and whether Microsoft will extend the June 30, 2008, cut-off date on which many PC makers will be expected to cease bundling Windows XP with new PCs.

But some pundits seem to have forgotten that when Microsoft initially granted Windows XP five more months to live, back in 2007, the company left itself a loophole. (And I don't mean just the early 2009 cut-off date it granted white-box vendors/system builders). Late last year, Microsoft officials said that vendors preloading Windows on PCs aimed at "emerging markets" wouldn't have to stop selling Windows XP until 2010.

From Microsoft's September 27, 2007, press release:

"(S)ince some of the systems that ship in emerging markets don’t meet the requirements for Windows Vista, we will be extending availability of Windows XP Starter Edition to June 30, 2010. This will allow our OEM partners who sell PCs in emerging markets more opportunity to offer genuine Windows licenses."

The new question that company watchers are asking this week is whether Microsoft will extend this 2010 date to cover "low-cost" PCs -- like the Asus Eee ultra-cheap laptop -- even if those PCs aren't running XP Starter Edition.

I would expect Microsoft would find offering XP for another year-plus on those PCs to be a lesser evil than conceding the low-cost PC market to Linux. If these machines do not have enough processing power to run Windows Vista (not even the Home Basic edition), what else can Microsoft expect their manufacturers to do, other than to continue to offer the systems with XP?

Will Microsoft extend its XP-preload cut-off date again, outside of these fringe cases? My bet is no. Microsoft will be shooting itself in the foot if it does this, as it would be concedinng that there are real reasons that users and its hardware/software partners might not want its latest Windows release (which is now over a year old, mind you)....

What's your take? Will any amount of outcry stop Microsoft from making good on its June 30 XP preload cut-off date?

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