NBN strategic review: By the numbers

NBN strategic review: By the numbers

Summary: The details of NBN Co's strategic review will be pored over for the next few days, but these are the basic numbers that NBN Co has compiled comparing the different policies.

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TOPICS: NBN
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The release of NBN Co's strategic review puts the company on the path for a massive change in the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN), but the justification for the proposed changes have relied on a re-estimation of the current project. ZDNet has compared the new figures with those NBN Co prepared prior to the election.

Prior to the election, NBN Co was preparing a new corporate plan detailing the current state of the network rollout, and an indication of the expected cost for the network.

The table below contains the information contained in the leaked draft compared to the information NBN Co released today of the revised forecast and the new proposed NBN plan.

  2013 draft NBN Co Corporate Plan
Post-election FttP Revised Forecast
New NBN plan
Technology
93 percent FttP 93 percent FttP 28 percent HFC; 24 percent FttP; and 41 percent FttN
Fixed-line premises passed by June 2016
3.5 million brownfield premises 1.7 million brownfields premises 1.3 million on FttP in total; 550,000 on fibre to the node; 2.6 million on HFC
Peak funding AU$45.6 billion AU$73 billion AU$41 billion
Operating expenditure AU$26.4 billion AU$23 billion AU$27 billion
Capital expenditure
AU$37.4 billion AU$43 billion AU$30 billion
Revenue at completion date
AU$21.7 billion AU$10 billion AU$18 billion
Completion date
December 2021 June 2024 2020
Download speeds
Up to 1Gbps on fibre; 25Mbps on wireless/satellite by 2021 Up to 1Gbps on fibre; 25Mbps on wireless/satellite by 2024 43 percent to get 25Mbps by 2016; 91 percent to get 50Mbps by 2021; 65-75 percent to get 100Mbps by 2019

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has already moved to distance the government from the corporate plan prepared by NBN Co prior to the election, stating that the NBN Co strategic review found that staff and executives working on the project were overly optimistic in their assumptions.

Stay tuned to ZDNet for additional coverage of the NBN Co strategic review tomorrow.

Topic: NBN

About

Armed with a degree in Computer Science and a Masters in Journalism, Josh keeps a close eye on the telecommunications industry, the National Broadband Network, and all the goings on in government IT.

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Talkback

10 comments
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  • How does that revenue work?

    2013 draft: 21.7BN
    Revised by Turnbull: 10BN
    Turnbull's inferior network, with 28% less connections, at least because they don't own HFC, and suddenly.... 18BN

    Magic pixie dust?
    Pilfer-52cec
    • Ahh, I see now

      Josh, you have your table wrong. Revenue at completion date should be revenue at 2021, as they have in their "review". 2021 was probably picked for having the biggest variation between the two schemes. Even the review is playing politics.
      Pilfer-52cec
      • why politics

        Why so you say politics? Where you there?
        ebbeckt@...
    • inferior

      Why do you say inferior?
      ebbeckt@...
      • Ebb

        You're kidding right? Trolling? We're not explaining this again.
        Ramrunner-5dd3e
  • "Distance" would not be the right word

    That would be "Repudiate".

    While it's reasonable for politicians and parties to advocate general policies and write them into their platforms, it's definitely a bad idea to make promises with regard to technical details until one has all of the relevant data and has consulted with experts able to express a reasoned, professional opinion of the issue (preferably ones who are going to say what they think even if the people paying them don't like it).

    If I'm assessing the situation correctly, the Liberals made promises with regard to the technical details of broadband rollout without first procuring properly informed expert opinion and are now paying the price for it. Unfortunately for his co-partisans, Mr. Turnbull appears to be utterly tactless (the fact that he used to be their leader is truly a scary thought), which is making the situation worse than it needed to be. Of course, it's always possible that the incoming Prime Minister deliberately put a recent rival he absolutely had to include in his cabinet into an impossible situation to make it harder for him to pose a challenge to his leadership later (I can think of US politicians who would do such a thing); if so, it looks like the strategy is working.
    John L. Ries
  • Told ya so.

    For all of the conservative drones out there whose comments I read, whose comments I listened to and who argued with ME face to face about the fact that the only reasonable and superior solution to providing our nation with a decent high speed broadband network was FTTN established by the LNP and as we are now finding out directed by a past FAILED TELSTRA APPOINTEE. TOLD YA SO!!!!!!!!!!!!. I could say to all of you suck it up, the problem is of course is the rest of us rational and educated Australians who could see and supported the original FTTH/P concept of do it right and do it once also have to suffer under the stupidity of the technological luddites YOU ELECTED.
    BoomerMMW
  • Revenue at FY2021, not Revenue at Completion Date

    Accumulated revenue at completion date for Scenario 1 (Revised Outlook) is $25b at FY2024 (completion date). See Exhibit 2-21 on page 56.

    Table 0-2 in the Executive Summary, however, chooses to show accumulated revenue at FY2021, which is the completion date of Scenario 6 (Optimised Multi-Technology Mix), and three years before the completion of Scenario 1. It's a purely political (and confusing) choice.

    Exhibit 4-6 on page 102 claims that steady state financial performances do not wildly differ between each scenario - which is surely absurd.
    Eumenes
  • More of the Same

    Why should we place any more credence post election on any of Turnbull's latest "figures & facts" compiled by his selected drones when the evidence now confirms everything Turnbull stated over the past 3 years was Allbull***t?
    grump-a1eeb
  • Intelligence Slur

    I wonder how often the Libs can continue to slur and undervalue the intelligence of Autralians. Australians - over time - know when, and by whom, they are beign shafted. It ususally takes about three years for most of the population to get it. Then, constitutionally, there is a reckoning. Goodbye Turnbull, I do hope you you enjoy your Parliamentary Pension. Won't be long now. Pity such a decent bloke will have to leave his second profession in shameful ignominy. The one intelligent person on the Libs team, proven by his own hand at the end of his career to have been a pliable, self-interested fool. Still, if Turnbull is the most intelligent member of the Libs team, what does that say about the rest of them?
    Dr. Ghostly