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It's a mobile, mobile, mobile world
When you look at Mary Meeker's predictions for the Internet, anyone can see that the future of personal computing belongs to smartphones and tablets. Beginning in 2010, their sales left PC sales behind in their dust. By 2013, over four times as many smartphones were being sold as PCs, both desktop and laptop. Tablets were right behind smartphones. Looking ahead, Meeker smartphone and tablets only increasing their lead.
On these devices, Android rules followed by Apple iOS. The real battle is for third place. Who will take the number three spot is still an open question. Here are the real contenders. I've placed them in the order of what I consider their chances are of taking the third spot.
There are some that are no longer in the race at all. WebOS, for example, looked like a contender at one time, but it was pulled from mobile devices by its one time owner HP. Under its new owner, LG, webOS has found a new life as a Smart TV operating system, but LG seems to have no interest in entering the crowded smartphone and tablet market.
Now, with no further adieu, let's start with the least likely of the mobile operating systems to make a splash in the coming years.
BlackBerry OS 10
If BlackBerry as a company had not stood pat when it owned the business phone market, we'd be talking today about whether anyone could ever catch them. Fortunately for Apple and Google, BlackBerry blew it. By early 2013, when the company's QNX embedded Unix-based BlackBerry 10 OS finally arrived it was too little, too late.
I think it says it all, the BlackBerry's greatest hope for gaining fans is by making it easier to install and use Android apps on it.
The chances that BlackBerry OS 10 will ever be number three? I'd say one in a hundred. Chances that BlackBerry will finally close its door by the end of 2016? I'd say one in five.