Analysts vie for best prediction on Apple iPhone sales in previous quarter

Analysts vie for best prediction on Apple iPhone sales in previous quarter

Summary: Apple's fiscal first quarter 2012 appears to be a banner quarter, analysts agree. But by how much? It depends on the number of iPhones sold, they say.

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Apple's fiscal first quarter 2012 appears to be a banner quarter, analysts agree. But by how much? It depends on the number of iPhones sold, they say.

Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog recently pulled together predictions from some 40 analysts, professional and layman.

As usual, the estimates of the independent analysts are higher than the pros (see here for why), but even the most pessimistic expect Apple to report record unit sales.

The numbers from the 22 Wall Street analysts who have responded so far to our call for estimates range from a high of 35 million iPhones from BTIG's Walter Piecyk to a low of 25.2 million from Gabelli's Hendi Susanto. The average among this group is 29.74 million, which would represent a year-over-year increase of  83 percent.

One of the more interesting parts of the story is a giant grid showing the analysts predictions, as well as the date of the estimate and the quality of past predictions for the previous four quarters. It appears that Q4 2011 was a tough one for some of the "reliable" analysts. Some who were reliably in the Top Ten fell 30 or more spots.

Topics: Smartphones, Apple, Enterprise Software, Hardware, iPhone, Mobility

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4 comments
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  • RE: Analysts vie for best prediction on Apple iPhone sales in previous quarter

    I'm assuming these numbers are based off the fact that none of the professionals use or read anything about the 4s... provided they don't develop more problems... like still not fixing the battery issue (who wants a phone that lasts 2 hours and doubles your data usage?) Or not fixing the outbound call issue with not being able to hear the person but they can hear you which apple just ignored it until more than 120 pages of customer complaints appeared on there forums and to many to delete...
    Nate_K
    • RE: Analysts vie for best prediction on Apple iPhone sales in previous quarter

      @Nate_K - I'm assuming you are just reading old data and living in some anti-Apple state of mind. I got my iPhone 4S for Christmas. I have charged it exactly 3 times. Have never powered down. Active use for calls, games, internet and email is about 4 hrs. per day, otherwise it remains in stand-by mode. Granted, I turn off the 3G cell data unless there is no WiFi available which may be why it lasts so long between charges. Don't need 3G for calls or games. Probably only use 3G 30 min. per day.

      Nate- try a different site if you are trying to convince folks that Apple's iPhone is not worth buying. You won't get any new converts at ZD-Net.
      The Danger is Microsoft
      • RE: Analysts vie for best prediction on Apple iPhone sales in previous quarter

        @The Danger is Microsoft Always love CES. Just found this great article for an outstanding solar gadget http://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2012/01/06/solar-powered-kindle-cover-introduced-at-ces/
        sreeseche
  • RE: Analysts vie for best prediction on Apple iPhone sales in previous quarter

    I assume that your snarky attitude was based on not owning or using an iPhone 4S, or simply a general hatred for Apple. Despite the media-generated tempest-in-a-teapot about battery life issues, my own experience in using my iPhone 4S is that the battery life is more than adequate, much better than the iPhone 3GS that I replaced. I haven't had any outbound call issues, except perhaps the opposite of what you say- my mother can't hear me half of the time on her cell phone (though I suspect that problem is on her end rather than mine, as it happens from landlines too).

    Of course, if you want statistics rather than spam, here it is:

    http://www.changewaveresearch.com/articles/2011/iphone4s_20111201.html

    Seems that 96% of iPhone 4S customers are satisfied or better with their phones, with the overwhelming majority (77%) in the Very Satisfied category.

    So I guess the numbers ARE based on research, given that stores are selling the phones as fast as they get them in, and that it's on AT&T, Verizon, AND Sprint now.
    ssaha