The Apple Core

Jason D. O'Grady & David Morgenstern

Apple on pace to sell 9 million iPads in 2010

By | April 25, 2010, 6:55pm PDT

Summary: iPad sales top 1,000,000 according to an ad network tracking iPad cookies.

Special Report: Apple iPad

Over 1,000,000 iPads have been sold according to Chitika Labs, an online advertising network serving over 2 billion monthly impressions. Its methodology:

- We count how many new, unique iPads we see coming through the Chitika advertising network
- We multiply that by how much of the Internet we see at any given time to figure out how many iPads in total are out there
- We  look at where iPad traffic is coming from by state

While far from perfect, its cookie approach actually serves as a pretty decent barometer of iPad sales. Apple sold 500,000 iPads in its first week, so that would mean that its pace has slowed to roughly half that, or 250,000 per week in weeks two and three.

If Apple’s indeed already sold 1 million iPads in a scant three weeks, it could close out the year with around 9 million iPads sold (assuming a pace of 1M units per month) or even as many as 10 million with a big holiday surge. Not bad for a product that it was only available for three quarters of the year.

Tip: TUAW

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily e-mail newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Topics

Jason O'Grady is a journalist and author specializing in mobile technology. He has published six books on Apple and mobile gadgets and his PowerPage blog has been publishing for over 15 years.

Disclosure

Jason D. O'Grady

Jason D. O'Grady is the creator and editor of O'Grady's PowerPage, which has been publishing mobile technology news since 1995. He maintains an advertising relationship with the following legacy advertisers on the PowerPage:

  • Amazon Associates
  • Google Adsense
  • Tekserve
  • Advertising on the PowerPage is brokered by a third-party agency (BackBeat Media) and he recuses himself from these negotiations.

Biography

Jason D. O'Grady

Jason D. O'Grady developed an affinity for Apple computers after using the original Lisa, and this affinity turned into a bona-fide obsession when he got the original 128 KB Macintosh in 1984.

He started writing one of the first Web sites about Apple (O'Grady's PowerPage) in 1995 and is considered to be one of the fathers of blogging. He has been a frequent speaker at the Macworld Expo conference and a member of the conference faculty. He also co-founded the first dedicated PowerBook User Group (PPUG) in the United States.

After winning a major legal battle with Apple in 2006, he set the precedent that independent journalists are entitled to the same protections under the First Amendment as members of the mainstream media.

O'Grady is the author of The Nexus One Pocket Guide, The Droid Pocket Guide, The Google Phone Pocket Guide, and The Garmin nuvi Pocket Guide (Peachpit Press), the author of Corporations That Changed the World: Apple Inc. (Greenwood Press), and a contributor to The Mac Bible (Peachpit Press). In addition, he has contributed to numerous Mac publications over the years, including MacWEEK, Macworld, and MacPower (Japan).

When he's not writing about Apple for ZDNet at The Apple Core, he enjoys spending time with his family in New Jersey.

89
Comments

Join the conversation!

Just In

RE: Apple on pace to sell 9,000,000 iPads in 2010
Garion DK 8th May 2010
9 million iPads sold in 2010? Sorry, but that's just crazy talk. The iPad will sell between 4,3 and 4,8 million iPads in 2010, which will be extremely impressive for a first generation device in a whole new product category.

A pace of 1 million per month is totally out of whack. You can't extrapolate from the one million iPads sold in its first month in the market. That includes 52 days of preorders and, most importantly, pent up demand from early adopters. 9 million in 9 months is impossible.
If Apple can sell just half that, the iPad will have made an extremely succesful debut.
form factor. Bodes very well for Android too.

What matters here is thin, lightweight, battery
life, cool to touch, price, design, and user
interface designed for the form factor.

All things working against Windows 7.
0 Votes
+ -
Haha. LoL.
Rama.NET Updated - 25th Apr 2010
DB, you got me with this. You look more like LATW and LG day by day.
Have you seen Microsoft earning reports? Nothing is stopping Windows 7
and I think even your dreams will oppose you.
--Ram--
Now back to my 8.5x11 formatting and printing.
0 Votes
+ -
Guess not. HP Slate would do much better with a real OS designed for touch
and not one crippled for it.
0 Votes
+ -
Did you really try HP TouchSmart PC with Windows 7?
Rama.NET Updated - 26th Apr 2010
if you, you wouldn't say that. Windows 7 is made for Capacitive Touch
Screens. The multi-touch, pinch and zoom etc are perfect there. Even the
Start button, Ribbon UI and control center are perfect. Try one before
comment.
--Ram--
All you have to do is use the HP Touch Smart to realize it is orders of
magnitude worse than a Touch based OS.

I have tried one. It bites. Windows does OK (not great, but OK), once
you get out of Windows, it is a major FAIL.
Maybe in general Win7 will do OK, but NOT on
tablets.
0 Votes
+ -
Wrong.
Rama.NET 26th Apr 2010
Try HP TouchSmart with Windows 7 and you will realize that Windows 7
is made for Touch.
--Ram--
0 Votes
+ -
i did
banned from zdnet again and again 26th Apr 2010
and while windows 7 itself worked ok (though i sometimes had to touch
a few times before it responded) the applications worked horrible and
none of them was optimized for touch screen input. not a good
experience imho.

microsoft has to start from scratch here as they did with windows phone
series. an os built from the ground up for a touchscreen device + the
ecosystem that you need around it (apps built solely for touch).
0 Votes
+ -
Third party problem, not directly MS's problem
gcomputeronet@... 27th Apr 2010
It is not Microsoft that needs to start from scratch they just need to build the foundation for third part software, which they did with Windows 7.
0 Votes
+ -
All you have to do is use Viso or Outlook on a Win 7 touch device and see
it is not JUST 3rd party software.

This is the same reason the Slates on a desktop OS will fail. No good
software optimized for their use.
0 Votes
+ -
Windows 7 tablet...
prof123 26th Apr 2010
Windows tablets will never match the iPad because Apple
hardware and software are optimized for each other. In
Apple products, there is a very tight integration between
hardware and software, it is almost like one entity. Since
Apple is the only company which builds both hardware
and software, nobody can touch them...
0 Votes
+ -
Win7 isn't made for touch...
nix_hed 29th Apr 2010
...a third party UI from HP is made for touch. So the underlying OS
supports it, big deal. This, my friend, is all about UI.

In terms of the UI, HP can port it from Windows to WebOS. Then you have
a much, much more efficient OS with a decent UI running on a device
that can last all day long with little or no bogging down. Kind of like an
iPad or Android device.
0 Votes
+ -
Google needs start allowing large screen devices itno the Market Place.
an attribute to each application to specify the
minimum screen size required. Some applications
will have versions for large and small screens
of course.
It is that they are excluded from the Market Place. Google needs to start
thinking about all the pieces of the puzzle or Android will loose out.
for every android device. Eventually, you'll have 4 primary screen sizes -
480x320, 848x480, 1024x600, and 1280x720 (give or take a few
pixels). You start selling apps with the ability to better use all four
standard resolutions, and the users will come. If you also have a
computer-based app manager that installs what part of a multi-res app
goes onto a device (848x480 on your Droid, 1024x600 on your
GoogleSlab), then you won't tie up memory on your devices.
0 Votes
+ -
Pixels are not screen sizes.
Bruizer 1st May 2010
Layout does not concern pixels as much as screen size. The base layout
on a 3.1" 320X480 pixel screen would be about the same as a 3.1"
640X960 pixel screen. However, if you had a 3.1" 320X480 screen and a
6.2" 640X960 screen, your app would (or at least should) have
fundamentally different layouts, controls and UI.
0 Votes
+ -
Right, we will see when there is competition in the market. Some of the upcoming devices, like the HP Slate are far superior.
0 Votes
+ -
Just you wait...
support@... 25th Apr 2010
Yeah, just you wait 'til my big brother gets here. He's knock the crap
out of you. LOL!

I seem to have heard that refrain before:

Just you wait 'til the other, better smartphones hit the market.

Just you wait 'til Zune gets going.

Just you wait. Vista will be the best OS ever introduced by Microsoft.

Just you wait everybody will be using DOS. Nobody will be using a silly
mouse.

Just you wait 'til Apple dies, Zeen ve vill take over ze vorld! Ya!

I'm still here. I'm still waiting. And in the meantime you may not have
noticed that Apple is swiftly creeping up on Microsoft and will soon
surpass them as the second largest company in the country.
0 Votes
+ -
Apple did surpass MS on 4-23-2010
i8thecat 26th Apr 2010
Apple is now #2 and MS is #3 and Exxon is still
#1.
0 Votes
+ -
Based on?
Bruizer 26th Apr 2010
Market cap? # of employees? Revenu? Office Square feet? Profits?

Apple is still tiny compared to the likes of WalMart (almost 0.4 Trillion in
Revenus (OMG!!!) compared to Apple's 0.050 Trillion). MS still has a
greater Market Cap.
0 Votes
+ -
get half of Apple's margins on their sales.

Pagan jim
0 Votes
+ -
Biggest based on what
Bruizer 26th Apr 2010
I have been seeing this posted at various sites for a week with no explanation.
0 Votes
+ -
Still it is well known that Apple gets in the range of 35% per sale of it's
hardware as a rule it fluxes here and there depending on the device and
such but it's roughly in that area. I don't think Dell gets even a full 10%.
Different business plan. Dell goes for the low margin high volume sales
as does Wal Mart. Apple goes a different path.

Pagan jim
0 Votes
+ -
i8thecat used #1, #2, #3...
Bruizer 26th Apr 2010
I have no idea what he/she means. #1 of what? #2 of what?...

The list includes Exxon. What is the measurement for being #1.
0 Votes
+ -
Based on the S&P 500
i8thecat 27th Apr 2010
Don't you guys pay attention to tech stocks???
0 Votes
+ -
Just #2 there.
Bruizer 27th Apr 2010
And just indicates the weighting.

Thanks for clarifying a broad statement like "#1" when Apple is a bit
player in revenue/profit figures.
0 Votes
+ -
Please define...
john@... 3rd May 2010
"when Apple is a bit player in revenue/profit figures."

Funny that - on what scale are you saying that Apple is "a bit player"?

Microsoft do earn a billion dollars profit a month selling 2 cent CDs for
upwards of 300 bucks a shot. So they will be profitable - especially if
people keep buying. But Apple's earnings and profits are definitely in the
"bit player" field.
0 Votes
+ -
It needs a real touch based OS with touch based applications.
0 Votes
+ -
Wrong!
ConstableOdo 25th Apr 2010
I think the HP Slate's biggest weakness will be Windows user's
narrow-minded attitudes. Just remember, they're always the one's
claiming that netbooks are superior mobile devices because they're
equipped with a physical keyboard and none of those users seem
capable of typing on anything with a virtual keyboard. Tell me why
anybody would need Microsoft Office on a tablet that doesn't have a
physical keyboard? Microsoft Office was built to take advantage of a
physical keyboard and mouse. Why would Windows users accept
something as crippled as that? They won't.

Windows users also refuse to use any device with anything less than a
full Version of Windows 7 so they've basically shut themselves off to
any alternative OS on a low-powered tablet. They've effectively
screwed themselves out of having a nimble device.
No reason to not use a desktop OS on a desktop
and tablet OS on a tablet. Win7 users don't use
it on their cell phones either.
0 Votes
+ -
Oh, you did a survey about this,
Rama.NET 26th Apr 2010
could you please share it with us.
--Ram--
0 Votes
+ -
Just speak the truth.
Bruizer 26th Apr 2010
Sorry if it hurts your religious views.

A desktop OS is not a good solution for a keyboard-less device. While
Win 7 has some minor optimizations to help with Touch, almost none
of the apps (have you ever used Outlook on a Win7 touch enable
device? It is down-right horrid) actually support it.

So you have to ask your self. Is user experience driven simply by
having a port or by the gestalt of software and hardware?

Dell is much smarter in their tablet/slate plans in using Android and
not Win7. The one thing Dell needs is to have Google get off of their
kiesters and start allowing software for larger screen devices into the
Market Place.

Each individual slate will fail or succeed purely on ease of use
standards. How fast does it turn on? How well integrated is the
software? How easy it is to get and find apps targeted to the device?
0 Votes
+ -
Agreed.
vulpine@... 26th Apr 2010
Without touch-centric applications, no Windows device will succeed as a
tablet.
the difference.
--Ram--
0 Votes
+ -
Been there. Done that.
Bruizer 26th Apr 2010
Windows OK. Outlook miserable.
0 Votes
+ -
n/t
0 Votes
+ -
Then you have low standards. -nt-
Bruizer 26th Apr 2010
nt
0 Votes
+ -
It seems I was right...
vulpine@... 30th Apr 2010
... considering the reports that HP has cancelled the "Slate" project and
purchased Palm supposedly to gain access to the WebOS and create a
true tablet.

I say again: There is NO tablet software available for Windows on the
open market. HP is the only company that has even tried, and they only
provide it on their own hardware.

Now, if they decide to create a new tablet with the WebOS, Microsoft
may finally learn a lesson.
0 Votes
+ -
I sold 10 units first day and with that I would sell at least
3650 in the year is wrong calculation and sampling data is
not enough for calculation. We need at least 2 quarters of
data to predict. This is premature way of saying something. If
I were you, writing for ZDNET, I wouldn't consider it and
make it big. I need more than a month data to put my
presentation.
--Ram--
0 Votes
+ -
After all model got released or is being released at different times so
the first quarter is shot to heck. The second quarter would be more
stable but not enough to discount the newness factor and I think sales
will start to show up over sea's as well. May be a full year?

Still what makes me curious is it would seem the iPad has broken
sales records for Tablets right? So when will you say it is a success?
What number over what period will do it for you? What I'm obviously
getting to here is.. Is there a number and time period where you will
clearly state "I was wrong in my predictions on the iPad." Or will the
IPad always be on the verge of failure for you?

Pagan jim
0 Votes
+ -
No, I am not saying iPad is a failure
Rama.NET 27th Apr 2010
My intention is once the 3G model is also released and international is
released, it could easily surpass 20,000,000 in a year, or may be not. But
the sampling of data is not enough to predict. You are right, you need at
least 1 year data to properly predict, but 2 quarters is quite ok for
gestimations, but taking 3 weeks of information and based on some ad
server hits, is totally ridiculous. That is what I think.
--Ram--
0 Votes
+ -
I see what you did there...
john@... 3rd May 2010
"My intention is once the 3G model is also released and international is
released, it could easily surpass 20,000,000 in a year, or may be not."

Apple have said nothing about what would make the iPad a success or
failure and yet you have done the over-promising for them. I don't think
I have seen ANY analyst claim that Apple would ship anywhere near that
number in a year. And yet, you, an Apple sceptic are claiming "easily
surpass 20,000,000 in a year". So you are setting ridiculously high goals
which Apple will fail to meet and you can claim fail.

Please remind me ram "How many Tablet PCs were shipped last year?"
0 Votes
+ -
Right now the iPad has no competition. When HP releases
the Slate, it's only going to drive more people to buy iPads.

I can only see 9 million iPads being sold if there is a whole
new market of Apple product users out there. Mac
loyalists will still have to buy the new iPhone 4G and surely
many will have to buy new notebooks and iMacs. Mac
buyers are going to have to be putting out an awful lot of
money if they want iPads too. Apple's consumer base is
going to have to grow drastically to support high sales of
all their products.

I say that Apple can only sell about 9 million iPads if all the
Europeans fall in love with it. I'm sure England and France
will go ballistic over it.

I like the sound of selling 9 million iPads in a consumer
market that doesn't or didn't exist.
0 Votes
+ -
Jason, that's not how critical mass curves work re: product
inception. First, it's a curve. Second, the mass adoption curve that
builds, if at all, only after the early adopters have bought in and
built the buzz to a sufficiently fevered pitch around town. So there
are really two curves: early adoption and thereto-scaled mass
adoption. Backing up yet further, plotting the early adoption curve
requires accounting for late awareness of and access to iPad in
foreign markets. And I dare not delve into the nitty gritty, for this is
not even my field. Dude, do you seriously get paid to simply
multiply weeks two and three over three quarters?? My fourth
graders want your job, guy wink
0 Votes
+ -
Based on your own analysis, then...
vulpine@... 26th Apr 2010
... the iPad should sell in excess of 15 million before the end of the
year. After all, the iPhone, after taking 74 days to break the first
million, sold 6 million by the end of the first year and in just the
holiday quarter for 09 sold over 8 million. If anything, the iPhone's
curve is rising and the iPad's sales look likely to do the same thing.

Sure, there's an opening-day surge; however, if history proves itself
again, the relatively slow 250,000 per week will rise as world-wide
sales kick off. Also, when you consider that some proportion of those
first-week US sales ended up shipping out to the grey market, that
means the world-wide demand is at least as large as the US demand, if
not significantly larger.
0 Votes
+ -
The pace is going to accelerate
jameskatt Updated - 26th Apr 2010
Once the 3G comes out, we will see the full spectrum of
iPad buyers.

This will accelerate the sales pace.

International sales are going to start.

This will accelerate the sales pace even more.

Just you watch.

The iPad is HUGE.

In the news was that the President of Iceland ran his country via his
iPad during the recent volcano eruption.

That was huge free advertisement for the iPad. Wow.

The iPad is HUGE.
0 Votes
+ -
That was the PM of Norway, not Iceland...
vulpine@... 26th Apr 2010
... but the point was well made.

Once my 3G arrives, I'll be a 2-iPad home.
0 Votes
+ -
Can I get some of the Dank
Feldwebel Wolfenstool 26th Apr 2010
...that you've been huffin'?
0 Votes
+ -
9 million iPads sold in 2010? Sorry, but that's just crazy talk. The iPad will sell between 4,3 and 4,8 million iPads in 2010, which will be extremely impressive for a first generation device in a whole new product category.

A pace of 1 million per month is totally out of whack. You can't extrapolate from the one million iPads sold in its first month in the market. That includes 52 days of preorders and, most importantly, pent up demand from early adopters. 9 million in 9 months is impossible.
If Apple can sell just half that, the iPad will have made an extremely succesful debut.

Join the conversation!

Formatting +
BB Codes - Note: HTML is not supported in forums
  • [b] Bold [/b]
  • [i] Italic [/i]
  • [u] Underline [/u]
  • [s] Strikethrough [/s]
  • [q] "Quote" [/q]
  • [ol][*] 1. Ordered List [/ol]
  • [ul][*] · Unordered List [/ul]
  • [pre] Preformat [/pre]
  • [quote] "Blockquote" [/quote]
ie8 fix

The best of ZDNet, delivered

ZDNet Newsletters

Get the best of ZDNet delivered straight to your inbox

Facebook Activity

White Papers, Webcasts, & Resources
ie8 fix
ie8 fix