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As Microsoft's monopoly crumbles, its mobile future is crucial

By | June 15, 2011, 10:56am PDT

Summary: The latest real-world data on web usage confirms that Microsoft’s once-dominant position in the world of personal computing is crumbling. Microsoft’s share of the web dropped below a key level for the first time this year, and Apple is dominating the mobile web. That makes Windows 8 a big and risky bet.

After nearly a decade, Microsoft’s reign as a monopoly is over.

The consent decree in U.S. v. Microsoft expired last month, officially removing Microsoft from antitrust scrutiny by the United States Department of Justice. And the latest real-world data on web usage confirms that Microsoft’s once-dominant position in the world of personal computing is crumbling.

For the past four years, I’ve collected semi-annual snapshots of web usage from Net Market Share. The data for the first half of 2011 tell an ominous story for Microsoft. See for yourself:

Data provided by > Net Market Share

For the first time since I’ve been recording this data, Microsoft’s share of web usage has dropped below the 90% mark—to 88.88% in April 2011.

That’s a reflection of the decline of the traditional PC and the increasing importance of mobile devices. People aren’t abandoning Windows for other traditional operating systems—OS X usage is flat, too, and desktop Linux still can’t crack the 1% level.

No, people are turning to mobile devices to do tasks that used to require a PC, and the iPad has been the biggest success in that role. In just over a year, it has grown from a microscopic market share to nearly 1% of all web traffic. And the iPhone continues to capture share as well, increasing from 0.53% to 1.23% over the past year.

Thanks to the potent one-two punch of the iPad and the iPhone, Apple continues to roll:

Data provided by > Net Market Share

When I looked at this data six months ago, I asked, “Are mobile devices like the iPhone and iPad taking over tasks that used to be done by PCs?” The answer is a resounding yes:

Data provided by > Net Market Share

By and large, these numbers don’t tell a great story for Microsoft. The company can take some small encouragement in the fact that the overall share for mobile devices is still small. That means it’s possible to overcome the late start. Android proved that a newcomer can make a dent, going from zero (literally) to roughly a third of the share of iOS over the past two years.

Six months ago, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer was asked to pick Microsoft’s riskiest bet. He answered, “The next version of Windows.”

Now that we’ve seen demos of Windows 8, it’s clear what he meant. With Windows 8, Microsoft is unifying its user experience across an entire range of devices, including traditional PCs, ARM-based tablets, smartphones, and the Xbox 360. The stakes are incredibly high, and there’s really only one chance to get it right. if Windows 8 flops on phones and tablets, Microsoft’s future is very dim indeed.

Related:

* Methodology: Net Market Share publishes snapshots of PC usage based on data from 160 million visits per month to its large collection of sites (the exact methodology is here). Its monthly reports on operating system versions contain a wealth of detailed information about even the most obscure OSes, and they’ve tracked the performance of mobile platforms consistently for the past four years. To compile the charts in this series of posts, I recorded data from the Operating System Market Share reports for desktop and mobile OSes at six-month intervals beginning in October 2007.

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Topics

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications.

Disclosure

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is a freelance technical journalist and book author. All work that Ed does is on a contractual basis.

Since 1994, Ed has written more than 25 books about Microsoft Windows and Office. Along with various co-authors, Ed is completely responsible for the content of the books he writes. As a key part of his contractual relationship with publishers, he gives them permission to print and distribute the content he writes and to pay him a royalty based on the actual sales of those books. Ed's books written prior to fall 2011 have been distributed by Que Publishing (a division of Pearson Education) and by Microsoft Press. As of November 2011, Ed is a partner in the independent publishing company Fair Trade Digital Exchange, which exclusively publishes his books.

On occasion, Ed accepts consulting assignments. In recent years, he has worked as an expert witness in cases where his experience and knowledge of Microsoft and Microsoft Windows have been useful. In each such case, his compensation is on an hourly basis, and he is hired as a witness, not an advocate.

Ed does not own stock or have any other financial interest in Microsoft or any other software company. He owns 500 shares of stock in EMC Corporation, which was purchased before the company's acquisition of VMware. In addition, he owns 350 shares of stock in Intel Corporation, purchased more than two years ago. All stocks are held in retirement accounts for long-term growth.

Ed does not accept gifts from companies he covers. All hardware products he writes about are purchased with his own funds or are review units covered under formal loan agreements and are returned after the review is complete.

Biography

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications. He's served as editor of the U.S. edition of PC Computing and managing editor of PC World; both publications had monthly paid circulation in excess of 1 million during his tenure. He is the author of more than 25 books on Microsoft Windows and Office, including the recently released Windows 7 Inside Out.

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RE: As Microsoft's monopoly crumbles, its mobile future is crucial
FAULKNE 13th Oct
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.
I'll add my 2 cents worth here and I am a new owner of a Windows 7 phone and pretty happy with the exception of no Skype and QIK but with Mango, perhaps that will come, but my priorities were security, privacy and then apps, in that order specifically. It's a good phone by all means.

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2011/06/cellphone-died-this-weekmy-new-phone-is.html
@MedicalQuack Fantastic Phone isn't it? I have one also, absolutely love the experience and polish.
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Delete me
SpikeyMike Updated - 16th Jun
@MedicalQuack
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@MedicalQuack ... Why oh why would you select a phone running a Microsoft OS? Windows CE (Predecessor of Windows Phone 7) was vulnerable due to flaws in OS design. Microsoft has a history of designing flawed operating systems. People select Microsoft in spite of security, not for security.
@SpikeyMike Exactly!!!!
@SpikeyMike hhhahaha apple troll guess who talking look at iphone many glitched and flaws. So how big brother steve jobs tracking your every move you make? Windows phone 7 wins again
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@SpikeyMike
I'll tell you why I bought one. I use my phone for work I don't need another playtoy. I'm also not interested in what someone else thinks is cool, nor would I buy one because the masses think its cool, that's for sheep. I have Word Excel Powerpoint, Adobe Acrobat and Outlook on my phone. These are must haves in my business and the phone works flawlessly rather than the flawed system you refer too.

I have to wonder what you base your comments on, fear, lack of experiance with a Windows phone, or someone elses opinion that probably hasn't used one either!
@Eddy-ICUR12 ... you contradicted yourself. You dont NEED it for work, you want it. The Phone Form Factor is too small for work. If you NEED a device to do remote work from accessing/editing documents screen sharing of remote computers for troubleshooting you need a Laptop with a Network Connection (Broadband Card). Use the Phone Voice, PIM functions etc... Getting into a OS flame war is a waste of time.
@Eddy-ICUR12

Why stop there. Why not put Auto CAD, Adobe Premiere Pro and Photoshop on there as well?

And don't forget the magnifying glass. silly
@MedicalQuack

WP7 is a great start for MS in the mobile sector. After watching a video of Windows 8 last week i'm convinced MS is on the right track. Sure they're late to the party but this gave them a chance to identify the weaknesses of Android and IOS. Once Nokia launches some phones things will get interesting.
@rob.sharp@... Yea great start. Did you notice it is version 7! In other words 7 previous chances to get it right and still not?
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What's in a name..?
Wolfie2K3 17th Jun
@LarsDennert
Wrong... Windows Phone 7 is NOT related to Windows Mobile 6.5 and prior versions. It's a complete reboot of the franchise.

Think Apple and OSX - which was a complete reboot of the Mac OS (with an emulation layer to support backward compatibility).
@LarsDennert I don't think iOS 5 means 5 previous changes to get it right too ....
Eddy-ICUR12
So if I understand your comment, If I'm part of the MS Camp, then I'm not a sheep, but if I disagree and use something from Apple that does work for me then I'm not really working, just playing with a toy? Hmmn..

Tell me, do you ever get to go and work, it sounds to me that you'd be stuck in front of the mirror all day....
@MedicalQuack You said it 100% right about windows phone 7 it is a great os phone and better than iphone not so secure phone due to the location tracker file sitting on all iphones and laggy and battery eater android.

Wait when mango comes this Sept it going to for sure make windows phone even more productive than iphone or android. these 2 phones iphone and android are just all hype due to apps has most of the apps i see on these phones are useless. Windows phone 7 apps shows more of the important apps to use not some waste of time apps posted.
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@ipadsucks.. take off the tinfoil hat.. it's been confirmed.. iOS was/is not tracking you it's logging locations of nearby cell base stations some of which could be 10s of kilometres away from your current location.. it also contains the location of bases stations from crowd sourced data i.e. some of the data may not even have been collected by your particular phone.. it can't be used to reliably track your location because it never actually logs YOUR location to begin with.. the data is used by the system to figure out your location in the absence of GPS (e.g. underground parking or in building) and much faster that GPS and with buring less battery than using GPS..
@ipadsucks

All cellular phones 'track' you. They listen for tower base stations and measure signal strength constantly. They also register with the strongest at regular intervals. If they didn't, the phone service wouldn't work without a couple of minute wait when the phone starts up.

iPhone and Android use that tracking to connect to map services to let you find where you are. the cell carriers have had that information for the past 20 years or so.

If you use a cell phone, they know where you are, because they have to. It's part of how a cell phone works. Whether you know or have access to the information is up to you and your phone, but the carriers (and the Government if a warrant is served) will have it no matter what.
@ipadsucks
Yeah, well we've certainly heard nothing biased from you before now have we......But maybe you will get to do some real work if and when Mango comes to life....Sheesh.....
But Ed, I ask you, isn't it good for all consumers that one company not completely dominate the web? I'm happy that finally there are some other compelling things going on that will cause Microsoft to innovate and not just sit back and rely on the fact that they have a monopoly.

Without Apple would we have the kind of smartphones we have today? Without Android would Apple have had to change much? Would we have gotten WP if Microsoft was dominant in the mobile phone space? It will be good for all to level the playing field and get these companies back to innovating to stay ahead.

Windows 8 is a direct result of Microsoft having to innovate to stay ahead, even if Windows 8 flops, as a consumer I'm happy that Microsoft has finally woken up!
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Contributr
Never said otherwise
Ed Bott 15th Jun
@rwalrond

That's a fair point, but kind of outside the scope of this post. For Microsoft to make a dent, it has to become competitive first. And that is not guaranteed in the rapidly growing mobile segment.
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Highlights the threat of monopolies
Richard Flude 15th Jun
That MS was able to dominate a market with it's relatively poor offerings highlights the power of the monopoly in IT markets where the network effect is so powerful.

Alternatives reaching 10% is a milestone, it's a figure too large to be ignored. Content publishes must take it seriously, as we saw with firefox.

Time will tell if MS can become competitive. Given their past failures and overreliance on their monopoly position i doubt it.
@Edward Bott: ... small yet. IDC/Dataquest promise that by 2016 tablets will sell like 300 million unites per year. Lets see how well Microsoft succeeds with its advance in mobile front. But even if they will not lead the mobile market, even shrinking PC market will still be making the company as monstrous in size and profits as it can be for ***decades*** to come (even if, eventually, sales and profits will be lower than now).
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It is not that simple
Economister Updated - 15th Jun
@DeRSSS

A good chunk of ordinary users with simple computing needs may end up buying desktops/notebooks with an OS similar or identical to what they have on their mobile devices. Most users do not need everything a full blown OS has to offer. This may in fact be a bigger threat to MS than just the growth of mobile. If that starts to happen in a major way and MS fails to make an impact in the mobile sector, its days as a major force in personal computing are probably over. MS could not survive with a small percentage of a shrinking desktop/notebook market. Linux can however.
@Econo....
I agree but at present difficult to accomplish.
iOS - buy a iPad? Same experience. Buy a Mac? Not cheap
Android - buy a tablet? An option. Buy a.. Notebook?
Win7 - same thing I'm buying now.
Rim - same as Android.... No notebook options.

sad
@Ed Bott WOW Ed!!! I'm impressed!
You can be non-biased. happy
Good article.
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Ah, Mr. Flude
Mister Spock 16th Jun
@Richard Flude

We can always count on you to post your self optimistic view, and not one based on fact.

plain
MS is marching at their own pace, they are not copying apple like google is. If they wanted to do that they would have put out a windows phone that looked like the iphone 5 years ago. What they are doing is evolutionary advancement based on years of user research. Windows Phone 7 looks and operates nothing like an iphone and would look just like it does without iphones. MS is several years ahead of apple in the mobile space, you just dont see it yet on the device side. But when they brought out WP7 they backed it up with Zune music service, XBox gaming service, Office/Sharepoint service, Bing search/local service, etc. etc. All stuff apple lacks and wont have answered when MS gets its next client update out. Windows phone 8 is probably already done going through the design phase and they probably already decided which things theyll postpone to windows phone 9. None of that has anything to do with what apple comes out with next fall or the year after for iphones. Apple has an advantage over MS with their end to end control that helps them get stuff out first but that certainly doesnt mean they thought of any of it first. Windows 8 will finally have some nice consumer tablets to run on but from what I have seen is also nothing like an ipad. They will go by what their user research shows them people want, not by what ipad is, and they will be able to leverage all their mobile services for tablets as well.
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Economister Updated - 17th Jun
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@Johnny Vegas

You mentioned that Microsoft is years ahead of apple in the mobile space but that we just don't see it yet on the device side. Well, yes, Microsoft has stuff in the works that we don't know about yet, but you seem to have forgotten that the same holds true for Apple.
@Johnny Vegas
If MS was several years ahead of Apple, they would be the ones with the first "iPhone" and "iPad" and their stock would now be soaring. Your conclusions are all wrong...
@Johnny Vegas

Ballmer and Gates both rubbished the iPhone saying no-one would buy them without a stylus and a keyboard, which they deemed essential for smartphones.

So how did they get from that to the Windows Mobile 7 phones without influence from the iPhone?
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Message has been deleted.
itguy08 Updated - 16th Jun
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Message has been deleted.
Mister Spock Updated - 17th Jun
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@Johnny Vegas
Do you work for M$?
@rwalrond I'm sorry but since when did Apple ever sit back and not innovate. They don't need competitors to drive their creativity and innovative thinking. They have always pushed the envelope leaving others to play catchup.

I keep seeing people insinuate that Apple has to have competition to improve products. Not so!!!
@rpollard@...
The revolutionary things they didn't invent like touch screens, tablets, phones and music players were copied from competitors
@rpollard@...
If Apple really was into really innovating anything, they would have, at the very least, come out with the 2.0 version of the iPhone from day ONE. Yes, that means the iPhone would have had the app store, cut and paste, and all the other stuff that came with it on day ONE. But it didn't happen.

Why? Because other competitors already had *nix based phones out in 2005 that could do about 95% of everything the iPhone 1.0 did. The only thing missing - the ability to do multi-touch. In fact, the Motorola A1200 was able to add java apps from day 1. It had cut and paste.

There wasn't a store or central repository - so I suppose having the App store would have been something new - but that was year 2. And there were plenty of sites offering Java and other apps all over the net.
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@rwalrond - Clearly yes - doesn't anyone remember the Nokia 9000 communicator from around 1997? The current E7 is a combination of that and th iPhone. Admittedly its' user interface is not as slick as the iPhone, but it works extremely well with Exchange server.
I am looking forward to the combination of Nokia and Microsoft. I also believe that in the longer term, computing will become seamless, and to be quite honest I don't particularly care what the OS is. I want a capable pocket computer with reliable business apps. The E7 is about 90% of the way there despite running on the venerable operating system Symbian. I just visited an elderly relative in a nursing home, plugged in the large screen TV to the HDMI port of the phone and browsed my daughter's blog with pictures from another continent where she is working as a volunteer.

Ed is spot on - the future is mobile; cloud computing will be a part of it too, but the real factors are seamless, simple and reliable.
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before it becomes agains worse
bezoeker 17th Jun
@rwalrond
Yes, no reason to defend a monopoly. It is bad for consumers.
I believe they say it is not over until the fat lady sings. Not having a monopoly in web access does not mean there are no MS monopoly's no more. As long as they exists one of the disadvantages is that the consumers money they collect is invested in protecting that monopoly, and only partially for creating new products. Look at the Nokia deal. It is spend many times in ways really bad for consumers. The MS tax for consumers. The Android tax for competition. See the Microsoft vs Barnes & Noble case, the blog on this site. Is that where the consumers money should be spend at?
The monopoly's should go before the situation becomes again worse.
@Ed I visited your reference link. Are Windows Phone 7 numbers aggregated into the Windows 7 statistics? Or are they so low as to be less than 0.03%?
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Wait until Nokia WP7 "Mango"
MSFTWorshipper 15th Jun
@PScooter63 That will skyrocket the market share to 2%.
@MSFTWorshipper Hey funny guy IDC did a study - it's at 4%.
@jessiethe3rd
Everything I have read states that combined WM 6.x and WP7SOS have nearly 5%, and that WP7SOS accounts for around 1% (give or take). Being that Microsoft will not release the activation numbers, that is very telling. If sales were great, you would see a full page ad out in every major News Paper and ads run on TV stating how stellar the device is doing. Sadly, the iPhone on Verizon outsold all of WP7SOS phones, in six weeks. That is one phone on one carrier in six weeks, vs. many phones on many carriers in 17 weeks.
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Sadly Rick_K
Mister Spock 16th Jun
@MSFTWorshipper

The iPhone on Verizon failed to sell to expectaions, and we still have no clear number on how many Verizon actually sold, though it is widely understood that they sold much less then Apple prediceted.

Same for the Pad.

Had I emotions, I believe I would feel empathy for those affected.
plain
I'll die before I ever give up my Windows PC. How else will a true gamer game? I love my iPhone and I love my Transformer tab, but I love my PC more!
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Nothing wrong with that either....
James Quinn 15th Jun
@Bates_
However what is true for you now and for the near future might not be the truth for others and who knows the future might have tech in it that will even give you pause?

Pagan jim
@Bates_
PC gaming is dying...
@shellcodes_coder

Nay-sayers have been parroting that phrase for 5+ years. The PC gaming market is about where it has always been and with games like World Of Warcraft as profit machines, there is still plenty of money to be made with PC gaming.
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Bitty, is that really you?
jacarter3 16th Jun
@DonRupertBitByte

Your post sounds like the old Bitty but one never really knows...

Just FYI - World of Warcraft (WoW) can be played on the Mac and even Linux. So that's a very poor example of "PC gaming."

Further, with Blizzard's release of Cataclysm, subscription rates have and game usage have fallen dramatically. Blizzard has countered by making the game so easy, that anyone can play without knowing the game or even its basic strategies which has driven more of their ******** user base away.

My fifteen year old will play for hours on her iPod Touch and could care less about PC games which as far as I can tell are for old guys with way too much time on their hands...
@Bates_
I agree. I have tried Ubuntu a few times. Wine and a lot of others do great work at making games run on Linux. Who else is making programs run on an OS it was not designed for?

My problem was that it was not easy and or consistent. If the game developer companies started making their games in both Win and Linux flavors, I think a lot of gamers would take a serious try at switching. After all, the less you have to spend on your OS is more you can spend on your hardware.
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.

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