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Android, iPhone, BlackBerry installed base game

Summary: Google's Android platform is showing strong momentum and accounting for a nice chunk of global smartphone sales and even dominating in the U.S. But what's really telling is how the major platforms, Android, Apple and BlackBerry, are playing a game of installed bases.

Larry Dignan

By for Between the Lines |

Google's Android platform is showing strong momentum and accounting for a nice chunk of global smartphone sales and even dominating in the U.S. But what's really telling is how the major platforms---Android, Apple and BlackBerry---are playing a game of installed bases.

All three platforms can do fine as long as they convince their customers to upgrade. GigaOm citing Nielsen and Canalys data shows the following:

  • 71 percent of Android owners want an Android OS when they upgrade their next phone, but 21 percent want an iPhone.
  • 89 percent of iPhone owners want an iPhone next with 6 percent saying they want an Android next.
  • 42 percent of BlackBerry owners want a BlackBerry next, with 29 percent eyeing an iPhone and 21 percent wanting an Android.

Add it up and it's clear that RIM is vulnerable since half of its user base is pondering another platform. However, RIM isn't going to disappear. If it can keep its customers in the fold---potentially with the BlackBerry OS 6---we're really dealing with a simple game. In a nutshell...

  • Keep the customers you have;
  • Poach from others when possible;
  • Three mobile players can remain fat and happy for a long period of time.

Canalys says the following about Android.

The United States smart phone market grew 41% year on year. It is the largest smart phone market in the world by a significant margin, with 14.7 million units accounting for 23% of global shipments in Q2 2010. Android devices collectively represented a 34% share of the US market in the quarter, and with growth of 851% Android became the largest smart phone platform in the country.

So what's going on here? There's a new normal in the mobile industry. BlackBerry is giving up some gains to the iPhone and Android phones, but that will stabilize at some point. With this new normal comes a case of a trio of smartphone leaders. The only wild card is when the onslaught of the Android army will end. Android devices are just swamping the market.

Topics: iPhone, Android, Google, Hardware, Mobile OS, Mobility, BlackBerry, Smartphones

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39 comments
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  • Typo?

    Android, Google and Blackberry?
    Probably Android, Apple and BB
    Economister
    Reply Vote

    • iPhone usage gains are double Android's

      in the face of the cacophony of Android devices proliferating the market. The meme that Android is killing iPhone is basically false.

      http://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=9&qpcustom=iPhone&sample=34&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=115&qpnp=25#
      CowLauncher
      Reply Vote

      • Apart from

        @CowLauncher

        you replying to my "typo" post, your point is what? iPhone sales are growing, which is supported by your link. I believe that is an established fact.

        Android is growing faster, certainly in percentage terms, but also, I believe, in units sold terms.

        http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/android-phone-shipments-increase-by-886/9169?tag=mantle_skin;content

        Finally, the blog does not talk about "Android is killing iPhone"

        You must be a mindless fanboy
        Economister
        Reply Vote

      • How so?

        @CowLauncher the iPhone 4 is selling really well, but mostly to the existing iPhone users. Android phones are selling even better - and mostly to new phone users since the original G1 users are just about coming out of their contracts now and the user base of Androids is growing exponentially.

        Android phones are now outselling iPhones almost 2:1 daily - 165K to 90K daily. It's just a matter of time before the 3 year old existing iPhone market share is also eclipsed by Android which has only really started selling in the last 3 quarters.
        os2baba
        Reply Vote

      • Correct me if I'm wrong here...

        @Economister
        In the argument about percentage growth does not the factor of already existing installed base count against that? iPhone has what a 2 year or so jump on Android there for it has already due to huge sales of the iPone BEFPRE Android was out means that percentage growth for Apple will naturally be smaller right?

        Is this disagreement between you and the other poster just depending on how you "look" at the numbers?

        Pagan jim
        James Quinn
        Reply Vote

      • Android phone are really not selling very well

        @CowLauncher .... they are being given away very well (with a contract .... just like other PAID smartphones).
        wackoae
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Android, iPhone, BlackBerry installed base game

      @Economister fixed typo thx
      Larry Dignan
      Reply Vote

  • When smart phones become commodities....

    Android may have a significant advantage, just like the PC and their clones did way back when. Apple may continue to do well as a smaller premium niche player and Blackberry MAY continue to do well with corporations IF it can provide compelling advantages. Nokia (if it ever gets its act together) and HP have the potential to mess this triangle up significantly, particularly HP in the corporate world. If I were RIM, I would lose sleep over HP.
    Economister
    Reply Vote

    • HP is only a threat to themselves

      @Economister
      Sell a computer, HP can. Write consumer software, HP cannot. Thus, HP is only a threat to themselves-- by investing heavily in a platform they don't have the chops to get off the ground.
      ericesque
      Reply Vote

      • Reread my post

        @ericesque

        I said "corporate". If HP comes up with a great smart phone for corporations, will they not be able to supply turnkey solutions for ALL the corporations IT needs, top to bottom, and replace RIM?
        Economister
        Reply Vote

      • ericesque? Did you forget HP bought Palm?

        @ericesque HP makes great corporate hardware at reasonable prices. Palm a great OS (they've owned many IP solution btw for a Patent Rich Portfolio), but their hardware is suspect these days. Now with HP behind them, you've a very possible winning combination of hardware and software! NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT!
        i2fun@...
        Reply Vote

    • I'd lose Sleep more over WP7 than any of them!

      @Economister In a convergence market that is seeing the onslaught of Desktop graphics capabilities in soon to be launched WP7 Phones and an already established gamer following of 40million gamers looking to play their console and PC games on their WP7 Game Phones. Especially online games!!!! .....nobody else can compete with the catalog of game ports in an already established Xbox Live (2001) Marketplace started for Apps and Games prior to CrApple iPhone launch.

      No doubt we will get some surprises from Microsoft with them getting direct support from Arm in anticipation of Intel's influx of x86 chips into the phone market. But again Android will remain strong as it too is fully cross platform. Now if they only had the games Microsoft is bankrolling into WP7. They have the hardware and it's all fully supported right into all platforms being an Open Source OS. But there again, Microsoft is co-operating with hardware manufacturers where CrApple is NOT!

      It's time for War and CrApple has already lost the battle...... AGAIN and this time they have two more assailants to worry about. Guaranteed they can't hold their own against HP (Palm), MS (WP7), RIM (BlackBerry), Nokia (w/ Intel on Symbian and Meego) and for sure Android is poised as the only ground up Touch Screen Mobile OS designed from the start for the future since 2003!!! ....yeah, Andy was designing it before CrApple stole his ideas and that's why Google bought it in 2005!
      i2fun@...
      Reply Vote

  • The whole market will change when MS releases WP7

    When the first round of advertising hits, the new numbers will be:
    [i]100 percent of Android owners want a WP7 OS when they upgrade their next phone.
    100 percent of iPhone owners want a WP7 OS when they upgrade their next phone.
    100 percent of BlackBerry owners want a WP7 OS when they upgrade their next phone.[/i]

    ;)
    NonZealot
    Reply Vote

    • LOL...right on brother!

      @NonZealot
      CowLauncher
      Reply Vote

    • RE: Android, iPhone, BlackBerry installed base game

      @NonZealot I wish I could "Flag" a comment as "Dumb"
      alangerow
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Android, iPhone, BlackBerry installed base game

        @alangerow I thought the same thing...
        Sarbustal
        Reply Vote

    • RE: Android, iPhone, BlackBerry installed base game

      @NonZealot

      Hardly. Considering I would NEVER, EVER consider a WinPhone 7 OS on my phone. So that right there means no 100%.
      itguy08
      Reply Vote

      • RE: Android, iPhone, BlackBerry installed base game

        @itguy08
        Nobody asked you. So the polls remain 100%.
        ericesque
        Reply Vote

    • you forgot to mention...

      @NonZealot
      100 percent of dumbphone owners want a WP7 OS when they upgrade their next phone.
      ericesque
      Reply Vote

      • And then we have

        @ericesque

        the plain dumb phone owners (dumb owners, not phones).

        I am not having a lot of trouble placing you.
        Economister
        Reply Vote
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