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Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity

By | December 7, 2011, 6:16am PST

Summary: Apple’s iPad sales may be caught in the middle of consumers opting to go down market for the Kindle Fire or going upscale with the MacBook Air.

Apple’s iPad sales in the December quarter look to be lower than expected amid the popularity of Amazon’s Kindle Fire as well as its own MacBook Air.

Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu said in a research note that the iPad is seeing competition from two areas—the Kindle Fire and the MacBook Air. As a result, Wu cut his December quarter iPad sales estimate to 13.5 million from 15 million.

Obviously, Apple isn’t going to sweat losing iPad sales to the MacBook Air, but the development is worth noting. Wu also appears to be the latest analyst to indicate that the Kindle Fire is a threat to the iPad.

Apple’s iPad sales have been a hot topic in recent months. Worries began to surface in September and then the concerns appeared to be overblown after Apple deployed some “pricing stimulus.”

Wu wrote in a research note:

In the Mac business, we are seeing particular strength in the MacBook Air, arguably the best ultra-mobile PC on the market. Last but not least, iPads appear a little light of expectations due in part to competition from Amazon’s Kindle Fire but also as some users opt for a more full-featured MacBook Air.

If this MacBook Air vs. iPad theme plays out, the tablet comparison to the tablet is going to be more interesting. It has been widely assumed that tablets will trump laptops, but if Apple customers are opting for a MacBook Air over the iPad perhaps limitations matter. Meanwhile, Intel’s ultrabook movement could also make a dent in tablet sales. As ultrabook prices fall, they will be seen as direct substitutes for tablets assuming static pricing trends.

Bottom line: Maybe we shouldn’t count out PC sales just yet.

As for Apple, light iPad sales may not be much to worry about for the simple reason that the iPhone is carrying the team. Wu said:

iPhone momentum is being driven by the company’s new flagship 4S as well as lower price points on its iPhone 4 and 3GS. This is helping drive greater smart phone adoption as well as enabling share gains against Android and BlackBerry (as evidenced with both HTC and RIM missing numbers). Our supplier checks indicate much improved production capacity but demand continues to outstrip supply.

Wu now sees Apple moving 28 million iPhones in the December quarter, up from his previous projection of 26 million. Wu estimates that 5.2 million Macs will be sold up from his outlook of 5 million.

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Topics

Amazon Kindle Fire, Apple MacBook Air, Apple iPad, Apple MacBook, Apple Inc., Amazon Kindle, Sales Strategy, Notebooks, Tablets, Sales Force Management, Sales, Hardware, Notebooks & Tablets, Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
non-biased 12th Dec
@rengek Keep dreaming happy
View in thread
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Loverock Davidson- 7th Dec
As to be expected. For $699 the iPad is just over priced for what it can do. For that money you might as well get a laptop, actually you can get one for cheaper than that. As for the Fire, $200 is a decent price, still not great but consumers are seeing no reason to pay $699 for one when they can pay $200.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
mholda 7th Dec
@Loverock Davidson- lol, the second-highest priced iPad is $699, the entry-level iPad is only $499.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
itguy10 7th Dec
@mholda Still too expensive. I thought about a tablet but ended up with a $299 netbook. I hate that it's Win7 (that will change when I get the $$ for a Macbook Air) but for $299 I got a REAL computer that will do everything I want it to do. Yes it's slow and has an inferior OS but it can do more than a tablet.
  • Flagged
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
illogicbuster 7th Dec
@mholda

$499. So? Ya can STILL get a laptop for that price that'll blow away the iPad. What's your point?
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Samic 7th Dec
@mholda
$200 Sounds like free money isn't it? Are you going to give me $200? LOL
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illogicbuster, ignore itguy10, he has no point
Mister Spock 7th Dec
@illogicbuster
he makes up scenerios so that he can insult Microsoft and the people who use their products.

His fabrication was entirelly for the opportunity to post hate that it's Win7 (that will change when I get the $$ for a Macbook Air) but for $299 I got a REAL computer that will do everything I want it to do. Yes it's slow and has an inferior OS but it can do more than a tablet

His experieneces and the products he owns change on a daily basis to suit the article.
plain
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
CTS_z 7th Dec
@mholda
These guys don't get it. iPad is for people who already have a computer. It is so much more intimate to consume information, do internet shoping and purchasing on. It is magical. I use a PC all day, but don't feel like it's a PC when I'm using the iPad after work.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
sackbut 7th Dec
@CTS_z ---- After you are "intimate" with it, does it leave you with a kiss and $50.00?
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
sackbut 7th Dec
@CTS_z ---- After you are "intimate" with it, does it leave you with a kiss and $50.00?
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
S_Deemer 7th Dec
@itguy10 : Install Linux on your netbook, and it will fly.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Gisabun 7th Dec
@itguy10 : Oh what a shocker! Mark this day in your calendar to remember. ITGuy10 bought a netbook and has Windows on it - not Linux! Try adding some RAM.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
non-biased 12th Dec
@mholda Lovey knows this but he can't work with facts when talking about tablets and has to twist things to fit his point of view.

@itguy10 If you had said too expensive for you then you would have had a point but you nor I have any right to determine what is too expensive for anybody else.

@illogicbuster We all know you got his point about Lovey not being honest. Nobody said anything about it being cheaper than a laptop so what is your point?
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
TroutHound 7th Dec
@Loverock Davidson-
I bought the highest end Verizon enabled iPad with all the associated gadgets (cables, cover, adapters, bluetooth keyboard). I was not interested in a laptop at any price from any manufacturer. The laptop is not a substitute for the iPad in my case. I found the iPad suitable for many tasks, whether I'm sitting on the couch, reading in bed, as a GPS device in the car, in the tent, at the picnic table with the keyboard, and in the bathroom (imitating Al Bundy).

For other computing tasks, I have a slew of desktops from different manufacturers and different OS'. None can do what the iPad can do in the situations described above. And clearly I was less concerned about the price than you.
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Limits of the iPad and the importance of hardware design
P. Douglas 7th Dec
@Loverock Davidson-

The article underscores the legitimacy of Windows 8. The market for a second or third PC type device which is limited, is really not that large. Most people need a primary PC that allows them to do what they can do now, as well as do new things. It is crucial however that MS and OEMs come out with compelling PC designs that bring out the advantages of touch, to both desktop and mobile computing use cases. E.g. many of the all-in-one designs I se being sold with Windows 7, don't appear as if they can be pivoted / positioned in front of the user, to support comfortable, prolonged touch based computing. Also many all-in-ones and desktop touch screens will need to have optional physical keyboards integrated into them, in the planes of the screens, to support serious touch based productivity computing. Half baked PC designs will undermine touch computing - similar to the half done touch design effort seen in Windows 7. Touch based PC designs, should seek to get people to use desktop apps, while remaining in this configuration. E.g. if someone is using a touch based monitor with integrated physical keyboard for heavy productivity work using metro apps, he should be able to remain in this PC configuration when he starts working with his desktop apps. E.g. he should be able to use his stylus to manipulate desktop screen elements in lieu of a mouse, and bang away on his physical keyboard, without feeling compelled to re-orient his PC. This strongly biases the user towards the touch based computing environment, and helps drive the ecosystem in this direction.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
ryan_v 7th Dec
You make it sound like 700 bucks is such a big deal. A lot of the people here can make that back easily.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
JohnVoter 7th Dec
@Loverock Davidson-
Here is one thing my iPad can do that my laptop cannot: Keep out viruses.

Am I the only one sick and tired of daily maximum priority security updates to Windows, Flash, Adobe Reader, Java, and Microsoft Office products? The traditional PC security model has more holes in it than a sea sponge!
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I agree
toddybottom 7th Dec
@JohnVoter
It's gotten so bad that Apple has had to embed an AV scanner into OS X's kernel.
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Huh?
Gisabun 7th Dec
@JohnVoter : Wondering what kind of computer you have. Last Windows update for me was 3 weeks ago. Just what are you using? As for Flash, Adobe reader and Java, you can't blame Microsoft on shotty development.

If you are getting hit with viruses - you can't blame anyone but yourself. Opening up questionable Emails? Going to questionable download sites? I can't remember the last time I had an actual virus on my system.
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OMG - the world (as we know it) is ending
davebarnes 7th Dec
If Apple's iPad sales don't INCREASE as much as the pundits and so-called "analysts" have predicted. Time to short AAPL.
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The uncertain part is that
Mister Spock 7th Dec
@davebarnes
while he drops sales expactations for iPads 1.5 million units, while only rasing sales of MacBook Airs up .2 million units, that would indicate that 1.3 million people will choose an alternative vendor other then Apple.

These are not things any company wants to happen.
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Other analys has met with Timothy Cook last week and said he was quite sure
dderss 7th Dec
@Mister Spock: ... about iPad sales.

So lets see how it will turn out.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
non-biased 12th Dec
@Mister Spock No, that would indicate that they have reduced expectations by 1.3 million, not that 1.3 million sales are going to another device. Of course you know that but why pass up a chance to say Apple is losing sales to somebody else.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Rigel.628 7th Dec
@davebarnes L. Dignan and his troupe were some of those "analysts."
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Hasam1991 7th Dec
@davebarnes Right then the iPad 3 comes out and they sell 20 million! time to buy Apple!!!!
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
louissossa 7th Dec
To enter into the closed amazon.com for $200. is not really smart. If money IS an issue you belong in the jungle, otherwise get an iPad for your content and a Macbook air for everything else. Just because you spend less does not mean you spent well.
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Let me get this right...
itpro_z 7th Dec
@louissossa, so, according to you, spending $200 on a Fire that connects to the closed Amazon ecosystem is bad, but spending more than double that on an iPad that connects to the even more closed Apple ecosystem is good? Just because you spend more does not mean you spent well.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
faxmonkey 7th Dec
@itpro_z
couldn't have said it better myself. LOL.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
CTS_z 7th Dec
@itpro_z
No way Apple is more closed than Amazon. Amazon has to sell more to you to pay for subsidizing the hardware. There is no way they are making a sustainable margin selling @$200.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
NedVargar 7th Dec
@itpro_z I guess you haven't used a Fire. Yes, Amazon hits you in the face with it's choices, but you can still sideload apps from just about any source. Can't do that on Apple.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
non-biased 12th Dec
@NedVargar Really, can't do that with an iPad? Ever heard of jailbreaking?
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Wow, elitist much?!
daboochmeister 7th Dec
@louissossa - remind me not to invite you over for Christmas, I have a feeling that our food wouldn't be up to your standards.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Dodgson1832 7th Dec
@louissossa

And what if you don't like the iOS or Lion interfaces? I prefer Windows 7 because I know how to customize it to get what I want (and I got rid of that stupid dock, always hated it on Macs and I hated it when Microsoft mostly copied it, although it is a bit less in your face). For comparable price points I get better hardware with software that I know how to use. I like to be able to customize things, and I can never figure out how to do that on Apple devices. Besides, if I were to spend as much on a laptop as the air costs I would get a good workstation. A few extra pounds doesn't bother me for the increased functionality.
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I don't regret buying my iPad
toddybottom 7th Dec
Combined with my Logitech-Zagg keyboard/case, my iPad does pretty much everything that I used to use my laptop for. It isn't perfect and the things that I can't do on the iPad, I've basically just stopped doing while I'm out and about but I'm finding it to be a small price to pay.

The Kindle Fire is a competitor to the iPad in the same way that a bike is a competitor to a pickup truck. In other words, the only reason to buy a Kindle is if you are only interested in reading eBooks and even then, I would always suggest that you go with an eInk solution.

The MacBook Air makes no sense to me though. It has the worst of all worlds. It isn't portable like the iPad and it isn't powerful like the MacBook Pro. The people I've known that have purchased MacBook Airs have all been rabid Apple fans who must buy every single product ever released by Apple. Every single one of them would have been better off just sticking with their iPads. The funny thing is that they end up carrying both with them everywhere they go. It makes no sense.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Rigel.628 Updated - 7th Dec
"Post-PC." Right, Mr. Dignan?
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
CowLauncher 7th Dec
I think Wu is cwazy.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Hasam1991 7th Dec
Well yes, we all already have iPads, why would we need another one?! now I'm looking at the NOOK for the holiday but when iPad 3 comes out, I will buy one. Also, I already have 3 laptops lol so no more windows laptops for me!!
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Hasam1991 7th Dec
Well yes, we all already have iPads, why would we need another one?! now I'm looking at the NOOK for the holiday but when iPad 3 comes out, I will buy one. Also, I already have 3 laptops lol so no more windows laptops for me!!
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Qbt Updated - 7th Dec
@Hasam1991

Who are "we all"? I don't have an iPad and don't have the slightest interest in one. The actual percentage of people owning iPads compared to the number of people in the world is a tiny minority.

So please don't include me and all of the rest of the world that don't care about owning an iPad in your braindead generalizations. Thanks.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
Hallowed are the Ori 8th Dec
@Qbt

Yeah, what he said.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
non-biased 12th Dec
@Qbt I agree that he should not have made such a generalized statement about everyone but have to ask why you don't show the same "outrage" when Apple haters generalize that "everyone" wants this or that feature such as Flash? Are those cases of generalization not an issue? Is it only an issue when a generalization (or anything for that matter) is pro Apple?
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
rengek 7th Dec
Bottom line is if aapl repeats a discouraging quarterly results the institutional investors are going to get nervous. All it takes is one big chunk to leave and the rest will run like heck. Don't be surprise if it goes downward like netflix. No amount of iphone & mac air good news can overshadow any kind of disappointing tablet news because they have been PRing that to death for over a year and its going to be the one thing that they have to keep propped up for investors.
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Tablet vs. PC
kamran.younis@... 7th Dec
I have been very tempted to buy a template in recent months. But I wanted to do this so I wouldn't have to carry my laptop anymore. After much research and hands on using different tablets I had to keep hauling my 5.7lbs Lenovo.
The very fact that Mac Air is selling more brings us back to the question- can a tablet replace a PC?
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Wait until everyone of those Kindle Fire buyers finds out just how limited
GoPower 7th Dec
they are. It's a semi-mobile web interface to buy Amazon products, BFD, for $200 bucks?
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In other words
toddybottom 7th Dec
@GoPower
It isn't competition to the iPad.

There is no competition to the iPad. It is a sick market. We all lose.
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
radleym 7th Dec
@toddybottom Its a sick blog. Self-important people with cutesy "tag lines" they try desperately to drag into every discussion keep ruining my experience here.
We all lose.
(Except for toddybottom and his ego).
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RE: Apple's iPad sales look light amid Kindle Fire, MacBook Air popularity
RoverDaddy 7th Dec
@GoPower I guess I haven't been watching Netflix, sharing pictures, playing music, watching Youtube videos, web browsing, checking Facebook, and playing games on mine. Gee my memory must be going.
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Errrr.....
Gisabun 7th Dec
Why buy a gadget like an iPad when you can get more functionality out of a Kindle Fire or a MacBook Air.

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