Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Apple's tablet: What happens when the tech lust wears off?

By | January 26, 2010, 2:05am PST

Summary: Apple will unveil its latest creation, reportedly a tablet that could reinvent media, entertain us, change our lives in ways unforeseen, part the seas, cure cancer and perhaps bring us world peace. And that happens only if Apple’s tablet merely meets expectations.

Special Report: Apple Tablet

Let’s entertain just for a minute that Apple’s tablet will be more Apple TV than iPhone.

In a little more than 24 hours, Apple will unveil its latest creation, reportedly a tablet that could reinvent media, entertain us, change our lives in ways unforeseen, part the seas, cure cancer and perhaps bring us world peace. And that happens only if Apple’s tablet merely meets expectations. Yes folks, the Apple hype-o-meter has completely spun out of control, but the real world will have a few reservations.

Searches on “Apple,” “tablet,” and every variation in between have skyrocketed on Google. In the technology world, we’ve covered almost every base there is to cover (and most of us have no clue what Apple CEO Steve Jobs is going to unveil). Gizmodo has a cardboard mockup of how you’ll hold Apple’s tablet.

Jobs is going to slay dragons. He’s going to unveil the most important thing he’s ever done at least a friend of a friend sixteen people removed from Jobs said. And he’s going to have a really tough time living up to this advance billing.

Yes, even Jobs may have trouble meeting these expectations. Why? Outside our little tech bubble, real people—you know the ones who have budgets and don’t like to piss away hundreds of dollars on every gadget that comes down the pike—are interested in Apple’s concoction, but are reserving judgment.

The common question: “I have an iPhone and a laptop. What is this thing going to do that those two can’t?”

Also: Apple tablet: All you need to know

I just kind of nod my head. I have no clue what this device will do, but if it can consolidate a few of the devices I carry on the plane, I’m interested. Apple’s tablet could replace an e-reader. Or not. It could replace your laptop. But probably not. I do know one thing: If it’s yet another device to carry around—YADTCA—I’m less interested in Apple’s tablet.

Ask someone other than your Webhead/engineer/Apple fanboy/programmer/tech enthusiast about Apple’s tablet and there’s a similar feeling. The folks at dinner parties, your church and the supermarket feel like they’re locked and loaded with gadgets.

Now I know folks will point out that Apple has continuously made a mint giving us things that we don’t think we need. There were MP3 players before the iPod. And there were certainly phones before the iPhone. And we all know that tablet PCs have been around forever (and never caught on). According to central casting, Jobs will hit the stage and do it all over again—this time with a tablet.

But once the tech lust fades, you have all those real people who haven’t bought netbooks, e-readers and all those devices positioned between the PC and smartphone.

So what are the core issues that will sway the masses to Apple’s Jesus Tablet?

Here’s a look:

Price: Apple doesn’t compete on price, but when you’re dealing with a new category it matters. Why? You can get a well-equipped Windows 7 laptop for $500. You can get a MacBook for $999. You can get a Kindle for $259. Apple’s challenge will be to thread the pricing needle. If Apple prices its tablet too high then folks will say, “I’ll just buy a laptop.”

The connectivity: Apple’s tablet is likely to have 3G and Wi-Fi access. The rub: The 3G is going to cost something. That cost is going to be a factor for consumers.

Device fatigue:
Some folks are tired of carrying a bunch of devices. They want convergence. Does this sound familiar? You get on an airplane and you’re armed with a smartphone, a laptop, an iPod and increasingly a Kindle. You need the phone for texts and email. You need the laptop because you can’t review presentations and delete thousands of emails on your phone. You need the iPod for music. And the Kindle for reading. We’re tired of all those devices. If Apple’s tablet can nuke the Kindle and iPod (and potentially the laptop) on the airplane then Jobs may have a winner.

The ecosystem: Yes, we know there will be a lot of apps. And we know that the Apple tablet will be a gaming machine. But the content deals will matter. Will Apple’s tablet and iTunes have enough firepower to replace Netflix? How about your cable bill?

Simply put, Apple has a case to make for its tablet device. Apple will wow you on the first day and may even live up to its advance billing with its tablet. But the real success will be determined by all of those non-tech folks you run into around town.

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Topics

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Apple's tablet: What happens when the tech lust wears off?
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You say it as it is, Larry...
Sleeper Service 26th Jan 2010
?I have an iPhone and a laptop. What is this thing going to do that those two can?t??

Exactly.
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100% agree.
Bruizer 26th Jan 2010
It might be a cool device. Will it be $600 or $800 cool? I can't put it in
my pocket. It has a smaller work space than my laptop. No keyboard
(just guessing on this one).

And what will I use this thing for? Might have a TV tuner it it:-)
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nt
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Who Cares
Rob.sharp@... 26th Jan 2010
Oh sweet! Another over priced device that does the same stuff as my laptop!

Why do we let these Coroprations dick us into buying things we don't need?
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...then you might want to use dick as a noun and not a verb.
  • Flagged
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...as a verb
Darkkeep 26th Jan 2010
e.g.: I watched a movie the other day, and in it
Jessie Jane got dicked like all the fanboyz who
pony up at the altar of St. Jobs.
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Cure cancer? [nt]
WarhavenSC 26th Jan 2010
nt
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not the best part!
paladin2 26th Jan 2010
I actually saw this so don't you Apple 'deniers' start with me. I saw a doctor pass a Macbook Pro over somebodies dead grandmom and she started breathing again! Try that with your trashy PC. When she heard the price though she died again, so this is not recommended for amateurs.
0 Votes
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I would've said Veal, but with it being an Apple
product and all, I know it wouldn't cook a baby
cow . . . wink
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More pancakes!
billtahoe 26th Jan 2010
What about more pancakes!!
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Blueberry?
Hallowed are the Ori Updated - 27th Jan 2010
If so, even though I'm all about a good blueberry pancake, I am sooooo still not buying an Apple sanitaryPad.
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LOL!
John Zern 26th Jan 2010
That was Good!
0 Votes
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Chuck Norris?
brighteyes459@... 27th Jan 2010
Can Chuck still lift his leg that high?
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Chuck is . . .
JLHenry 27th Jan 2010
immortal, invincible, and knows where you live(d) . . . . wink
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That Apple halo ... before adding the data plan
andrys1 Updated - 26th Jan 2010
That image is hilarious! Love the blue apple halo too.

Yes, how do they clamp down on the outsized expectations?

I know it has to be thin, but if it has a slide-out keyboard, it'd have a chance to replace a laptop+Kindle on an airplane for those who don't need humongous reliable storage for business needs and who don't care about emulating paper-print look.

That 2nd data plan is going to be a tough one though.
My own guess: $1000 w/o data plan, $750 with, and it would sell pretty well at $600 w/ a reasonable data plan.

- Andrys, kindleworld.blogspot.com
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Slide?!
jeremychappell 26th Jan 2010
A Slideout keyboard is NEVER going to work on an airplane lap-tray! Also
that thing would put a serious crick in your neck.

Everything I can imagine will suck. Let's hope it's nothing I can imagine!

For me, this thing either has a "killer-app" or it doesn't. No comments
about price or anything else are relevant until that application is
revealed. Then and only then can you consider if it's overpriced or not.
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iTunes? No, changedTunes
whisperycat 26th Jan 2010
It's funny, but when Microsoft were talking up Tablets, ZDnet was salivating over them. Strange how all it's taken is a shift from Microsoft Tablet to Apple Tablet to see a 180 degree turn

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/0,1000000091,2122964,00.htm
"Firing up your (MIcrosoft) Tablet when sitting next to somebody favouring an A4 pad and chewed biro will be the boardroom equivalent of pulling up alongside a clapped out banger at the lights in your brand new mid-life crisis confirming sports car"

-- amazing! And yet Apple tablets have nothing to offer.

http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=4011
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....
Badgered 26th Jan 2010
Strange how all it's taken is a shift from Microsoft Tablet to Apple Tablet to see a 180 degree turn

Oh please.. spare me. One not so glowing article about what might or might not show up from Apple, and you get your ******* in a bunch?
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Glowing article?
T1Oracle 26th Jan 2010
What "glowing" stuff could they possibly write? It doesn't even exist yet.

Fan boys... SMH
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Check your sources.
bhartman36 26th Jan 2010
Firstly, the first article is from 2002. I think it's understandable that an article from 2002 would have a different attitude towards tablets than one from 2010. (Remember: The Apple fanaticism wasn't even revved up at that point.)

And the second article is not that effusive in its praise of tablets either.

Also, keep in mind that several other tablets (e.g., Dell's tablet) were introduced at CES this year. I think it's perfectly natural to be skeptical that Jobs is going to introduce something entirely revolutionary when several other companies have already been there, done that.

Keep in mind: One of the reasons that the iPod and iPhone actually took off is because they solved problems that competing MP3 players and phones, respectively, had. In order to really impress anyone, Apple's going to have to find some way to do that with the tablet. I think that's going to be harder to do, because a tablet is basically a laptop without the keyboard, and I don't see a lot of places to improve on that. Multitouch is already on tablets, and the download/synchronization that made iPods famous is trivial on a tablet, so there's no room for advancement there. About the only software I can see Apple making any headway is by integrating books into iTunes, but even there, it's not going to be easy to make improvements, because Amazon's Kindle for PC beat them to it.

There's a chance that Apple will introduce some kind of display that's a hybrid between LCD and e-Ink (in color, of course), and that would be huge, but that would also probably be a niche product, because at the rumored $1000 mark, not a lot of people are going to be lined up to get one.

We shall see tomorrow, though. It's never a good idea to count Apple out entirely. The question, though, is whether this will be another iPhone or another AppleTV.
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When the Ipod was firewire and no Itunes for the PC, Creative and a whole host of MP3 makers had USB connections, larger storage, voice recorders, FM Tuners and even FM recorders. Same with the iPhone, WinMo/BlackBerry/Nokia all had more features before the iphone was a glimmer in Steve's eye.

Apple makes stuff that looks nice, works as advertised and easy to use. And it's worth the extra $50 bucks as opposed to the Zune/Creative/BlackBerry/WinMo when it's your own money.
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...really didn't take off. It was the Windows support and the addition of iTunes that did it. The iPod's "killer app", so to speak is iTunes, without which the iPod would simply be another MP3 player.

It's the "easy to use" piece that people are most willing to pay money for, which is why the iPod made it big with iTunes. The iPhone piggy-backed off of the iPod's success. (Remember: In the beginning, the iPhone didn't have an App Store.)

In order to duplicate that kind of success, the iPad (or whatever it is they're going to call it) is going to have to find some similar hook. I don't think there's very much they can simplify with a tablet, so they're probably going to have to wow people with a new technology. My money's on a dual LCD-eInk screen, or some kind of eInk that can refresh fast enough to handle video. (Because of the way eInk works, I don't think it's possible to have one screen that can simultaneously act as both LCD and eInk, but if you throw in some kind of front-lighting, plus imporve the refresh rate, you might end up with an eInk screen that can do general-purpose computing.)
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You do realize...
vulpine@... 26th Jan 2010
"The early version of the iPod you're talking about really didn't take off.
It was the Windows support and the addition of iTunes that did it."


... that it was popular demand that encouraged Apple to port iTunes to
Windows, don't you?
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There was nothing, repeat: nothing special about iPods until iTunes came along for Windows. The demand you're talking about was market demand from people who wanted iPods but couldn't run iTunes and didn't have FireWire ports. The iPod was popular with Mac owners, but didn't really take off until it was made compatible with PCs.
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Oh, c'mon
frabjous 26th Jan 2010
You don't really think Jobs and Apple were unaware of the size of
the PC installed base as they developed the iPod/iTune system? I
don't know if that assumption is disengenuous or just stupid...
There was a company making a $25 program that allowed you to sync
with your Windows box.

iTunes just made the whole thing really easy.
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@frabjous
bhartman36 26th Jan 2010
No, I don't think Jobs was ignoring Windows. He was trying to compete with Windows. People tend to forget, I guess, that the original thinking was that they'd get people to adopt iPods in the hope that they could get people to switch to Macs in order to manage them. Apple was more than capable of making a Windows client for iPods from the beginning, and giving them USB connectivity, but that didn't fit with the original strategy. iPods were never meant to be the flagship of Apple's business.

So to answer your question: No, I don't think Jobs & Co. were ignoring the Windows market share. They were trying to chip away at it. The change in strategy came when Apple realized that they weren't going to be able to keep iPods Mac-only.
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@bruizer
bhartman36 26th Jan 2010
There was a company making a $25 program that allowed you to sync with your Windows box.

I'm not saying there was no way to do it (provided you had the FireWire port, which wasn't that common on Windows boxes). What I'm saying is that the release of iTunes for Windows opened the floodgates. The original strategy with the iPod was to promote it in hopes that people would adopt Macs to manage their music. When Apple saw that people were simply using other software with their iPods on Windows, they abandoned that and released iTunes for Windows.

You have to remember: Apple's main focus wasn't consumer electronics. It was Mac computers. You can see the thread of that strategy running through the company to this very day. Think of how many more copies of OS X they could sell, if they allowed it to be loaded on regular Wintel boxes. They don't allow it, because they're interested in selling Macs, not OS X. And unlike with the iPods, they're able to sustain this because they can sue anyone who tries to sell PCs with OS X pre-installed. If they'd been able to sue that company making sync software for your Windows box, you might still not have Windows-compatibile iPods.
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Multi touch on tablets?
zdnet-gregc 26th Jan 2010
That may be, but it wasn't when I, and lot of others like me, tried and gave up on tablets 2-3 years ago. The fundamental problem was the stylus. It was just the mouse point-and-click paradigm translated to a touch screen. No thanks.

I might be ready to take another look, thanks to the publicity surrounding the upcoming Apple announcement.
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Things have changed.
bhartman36 26th Jan 2010
Granted, two or three years ago, multitouch didn't exist on tablets, but that's no longer the case.

Check out the Dell Latitude XT2. HP also showed one off at CES that will be released sometime this year. Lenovo is also in this space (although it's different from what we expect the Apple tablet to be, in that it has a keyboard that folds back).

I assume that the Apple tablet will be thinner and "sexier" than the current tablet offerings, simply because Apple excels at industrial design. I just don't know if that will be enough to dominate the space. After all, Apple hasn't been as successful selling their computers as they have been selling other computer electronics (namely, the iPod and iPhone).
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Well...
frabjous 26th Jan 2010
"Apple hasn't been as successful selling their computers", you
say?

Apple announced all-time record sales and earning for the latest
quarter yesterday and prominent in that release was the 33%
increase in Mac sales (in a recession) and an INCREASE in gross
margin to 40.9% (in a recession)--numbers that any PC
manufacturer would die for during any given non-recession.

Of course, you may define success differently.
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Growth and margins
Lester Young 27th Jan 2010
Highest growth and margins are from iPhone and iTunes sales. Mac sales and gross are up but with decreased margin. The manufacturer with the highest growth of PC sales is Toshiba, which pushed Apple out of fourth place.
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Success
bhartman36 27th Jan 2010
Hi, frabjous.

Notice, I did say "as successful". An increase of 33% in sales is, indeed, impressive, but the installed base of Macs is nowhere near the sold units of iPods, let alone the installed base of PC's. That shouldn't be interpreted as "Macs suck", of course, but the success of the Mac has been nowhere near the success of the iPod.
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@bhartman36
Axsimulate 26th Jan 2010
If you think fanaticism only exists in the Apple or Linux world your head is clearly stuck in the sand or your feet are so firmly planted in the Windows fanaticism side you can't see the forest through the trees.
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Fanaticism
bhartman36 26th Jan 2010
I certainly didn't mean to imply that only Apple fans were fanatical. I've seen both Linux and Windows people who drank the Kool-Aid, so to speak. I was really just trying to reference a time period. Prior to the iPod, you didn't see the same kind of "Everything from Steve Jobs is gold" attitude, because nothing prior to that had had that kind of success from Apple. (Not that they didn't have their fans, but there have always been far fewer Mac computer users than Windows users.)

While we're on the subject, though, I do think there's a difference between the Windows fanatics and the Apple fanatics. Windows has always been the default -- the standby. You've never had to go out of your way to use Windows. Mac fans are more passionate, by nature, because they have to be. You have to go out of your way to get a Mac system.

Linux is a little bit like Macs, in that way, but it's easier to get into, because you don't have to buy into the hardware.
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No Line ups??????
tom@... 27th Jan 2010
There will be huge line ups of people who will buy anything from Apple. The test comes in penetrating the market beyond the Apple fanboy community.

We will have to wait and see.
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Even more amazing
jeremychappell 26th Jan 2010
What's even more amazing is we've not even seen it, already it's being
dismissed as "irrelevant"! Until tomorrow, we have no idea. If it were
anyone other than Apple we'd probably not care (yet).
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Now one thing, in 2002, they were 2K+. Adjusted to about 2.5K in
todays $$$.

So at $600, they may work. I still don't see it.

Too big to fit in your pocket. Too small for serious work.
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Ummm... Who failed?
vulpine@... 26th Jan 2010
Microsoft? I'd say yes, you're right. But if you're trying to say that Apple
failed with a tablet in '02, I really need to question your memory.

It's not the technology that's failed--not completely. What has caused
the tablet to fail up to now is that there was never any true touch OS or
tablet environment where all applications operate the same way,
whereas Apple has attempted over the decades to ensure their apps
maintain the same basic functionality across the board. There are some
apps in Microsoft's Windows Tablet Edition that work beautifully, but
the OS itself merely uses the touch as an alternate to using a mouse--
completely inefficient for the intended purpose.

No, I'm not saying that OS X itself is a tablet OS, but the iPhone OS has
been leading almost directly towards becoming exactly that, a Tablet
OS.
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Tablets failed.
Bruizer 26th Jan 2010
I have yet to see the WOW! use for them. Will they make books half the
cost? Will they run for hours and hours on one charge? Will they fit in
your pocket?

I just don't seen Tablets being a big thing.
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The story you are referring is 7 years ago when tablet was new gadget so of course it was exciting.
Today it's not!!! So that explains the low enthusiasm. Most of us don?t get excited much if dell/HP/others come up with a new laptop model but when the first laptop came out it was a freaking BIG deal.
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It wont be a tablet...
Ceridan Updated - 26th Jan 2010
There's only 2 possibilities here...


1): It will be the iBook aka a ebook reader.

2): It will be a mind controling device that will transform the users intro slaves for Steve Jobs... wait you mean Jobs allready have this system called iSlave, an application in all Macs? oh well nvm then.

But regardless there will be a new closed format filled with crappy DRMs.
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relax
johnh58@... 26th Jan 2010
It is crystal clear zdnet hates all thing mac. your mindless bitching is old. If
windows and Microsoft wasn't so mundane, maybe peole wouldn't get so
excited about apple.
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Re: relax
SpectreWriter 26th Jan 2010
bravo! Well said, John. TY.
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One thing for SURE.
DonnieBoy 26th Jan 2010
The presention will be about 100x more interesting that what
Balmer did on the so called future HP tablet running Windows 7,
AND, there will be no power outages on stage.
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It wil only be interesting....
Ceridan 26th Jan 2010
Because unlike Ballmer, Jobs have the Reality Distortion Field version 10.7 that makes people present at his presentation think that annything Jobs created is a master piece...


Guess why Jobs forbids streaming... iRFD 10.7 does not work over IP...
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Seriously?
JimJensen3 26th Jan 2010
Reality distortion? I guess that is why Apple has done so well as evidenced by this quarters success? Everyone wants to go negative but name one current Apple product (aside from apple TV) that has not done well. Go back and read the articles about the iPhone before it came out. It was all the same negative comments by all the so called experts, how it will never succeed. I don't believe every Apple product works for every person but give credit where credit is due. I made the switch to a MacBook Pro three years ago and I would never go back to Windows. It works for me, maybe not for you but it does for me. I switched from a blackberry to an iPhone, is it perfect? no but neither was the BB and the iPhone works for me. Everyone bashed netbooks when they first came out because they were so lame performance wise but guess what lots of people bought them cause they worked for them. Lightweight and easy to travel with.

I travel often and use a Macbook Air for travel. I am very interested in the tablet for travel and hoping that I can replace the Air and my Kindle with the tablet.

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