Google+ predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

Google+ predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

Summary: Although there is already buzz about how long it will take Google+ to achieve 100 million users, Google developers are expecting to surpass the 10 million-mark by the end of today.

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Although there is already buzz about how long it will take Google+ to achieve 100 million users, tech insiders are expecting to surpass the 10 million-mark by the end of today.

Ancestry.com founder and self-described "serial entrepreneur" Paul Allen is predicting on his Google+ page (of course) that the Goog's entry into the social networking world will have 10,000,000 active members by the end of Tuesday, July 12 based on the following calculations:

My surname-based analysis shows that the number of Google+ users worldwide reached 7.3 million yesterday (July 10) – up from 1.7 million users on July 4th. That is a 350% increase in six days. The userbase [sic] is growing so quickly that it is challenging for me to keep up, since the number of users of any given surname (even the rare ones I am tracking) seems to be climbing every day.

More impressive than last week's growth is the astonishing growth in users from yesterday at mid-day to tonight -- a 30% jump. My latest estimate tonight shows approximately 9.5 million users. This suggests that 2.2 million people have joined Google+ in the past 32-34 hours.

Allen adds that the figure could double by the end of this weekend. Paraphrasing Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Allen reminds us that "it is easy to underestimate the power of exponential growth."

Remember that joining Google+ is still on an invite-only basis, which makes this a fairly impressive feat. It would be unwise to compare how long it took Facebook to reach this point as social media in the mid-2000s just wasn't what it is now. Additionally, Google already has a built-in base of Gmail and other Apps users, so that only filters into this building base of subscribers more easily.

Additionally, it should be noted that this is just one person's hypothesis loosely based on mathematical formulas used for the United States Census. Google itself has not released any official numbers updating us on how many Google+ members there are yet, so this is definitely not 100 percent accurate. However, if these numbers are accurate, it would hardly surprise anyone at this point.

Topics: Social Enterprise, Apps, Google

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21 comments
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  • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

    It says "Already invited? We've temporarily exceeded our capacity. Please try again soon" on the Google + screen. How can they reach that amount if they aren't taking anymore people.
    MarkWB
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @MarkWB

      That message comes and goes. I got it Saturday morning but was allowed to register Saturday afternoon.
      wraith404
      • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

        @wraith404 Can you send me an invite to join google+ my email is brian.durden804@gmail.com
        njtechguy@...
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @MarkWB Google did not make that prediction... the prediction was made by someone else about Google.
      duanerstevens@...
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @MarkWB This proves 2 important things....<br>#1 There are waaay too many people out of work with too much time on their hands.<br>#2 People have an insatiable irresistible desire to post there personal information online.<br>Friendster, tagged, myspace, facebook, google...whoever is next.<br>It proves...building your page half the fun!<br>As for me..I'm still trying to get my friendster set up...I'm 6 social network waves behind!!! Oh yeah I'm on that old roach boat XP too...but Ima happy!
      BaconSmoothie4-2
      • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

        @krylosxo Like this comment
        edkollin
      • Social networking is the &quot;me generation&quot; squared,

        @krylosxo
        Yes, the less texting, tweeting etc one does, the more time you have to get and enjoy a life that's truly one's own, off the grid of the delusion that everyone else cares about you and what socks you're wearing today. The joys of keeping a low profile are being lost on future generations. And very pleased to hear I'm not the only XP user still out there.
        rroberto18
  • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

    It's perfectly fair to compare it to Facebook's initial growth. They were comparing Facebook's initial growth to MySpace's initial growth, fair or not.

    Give us the numbers and let us decide for ourselves.
    Droid101
  • Google Invite

    Please send me an invite. My email address is: yomi.odunuga@gmail.com
    yomi.odunuga@...
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @yomi_odunuga@... Just sent u one
      Matthew Mackenzie
  • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

    How many signed up just to see what the hype was and haven't logged in since? I'm guessing 9,000,000 users did that. Don't let Google's number inflation fool you.
    LoverockDavidson
    • That's just sour grapes

      The same could be said of anything at all.

      People could buy anything and only use it every so often. Should they be discounted?
      Michael Alan Goff
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @LoverockDavidson

      Yep. Social networking, another yawn.

      Who would have thought that the standard bulletin boad from the early Net would be described as cutting edge tech. I can understand MMO obsession, or even stamp collecting, but spending lots of time on Facebook is more an indicator of personal problems ;-)
      tonymcs@...
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @LoverockDavidson

      Or.... Maybe people are actually using it. I've got TONS of activity among my circles. It's almost universal that they all love it.
      Software Architect 1982
    • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

      @LoverockDavidson

      <pretty lame for whoever flagged this as spam... I'm reposting>

      OR maybe people are actually using it. My circles are filled with tons of activity and it's almost universal that they love it.

      BTW, if you read the article, you'd know the 10M number is not coming from Google.
      Software Architect 1982
  • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

    I remember they did the same INVITATION ONLY thing when they released GMAIL. I have a feeling they do it intentionally just to get the attention from others.
    sazzad07
  • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

    Whether the numbers are true or not, I am sure, people will love the way Google+ is built. Each and every functionality is well thought and executed. Google keep up the good work. +1
    ezhil.sathya@...
  • RE: Google predicted to surpass 10,000,000 users by end of today

    I will send an invite to get Google+ for $1 to the next hundred people who email this address: turtlesfourlife@gmail.com.
    treynolds1
  • Google insulted me

    I tried to join Google+ today and the system informed me I needed an invitation to join.
    I am insulted.
    Circles or not....they can keep it! (or stick it...whatever...)
    freesneed2@...
  • Google is an insult

    I tried to Google+ and the system informed me that I needed an 'invitation' to join.

    Well....RSVP this! Circles or not....Google+ can Keep IT...or Stuff IT....whichever...
    freesneed2@...