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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

How likely is your software to survive the recession?

By | March 20, 2009, 4:11am PDT

Summary:   TechRepublic guest post via Chad Perrin. A recession economy can affect more than just your employer’s revenue stream; it can also affect the software you use. It’s time to start thinking about how to minimize any negative effects that may have on your systems’ security. You can find more posts like this on TechRepublic’s security [...]

 

TechRepublic guest post via Chad Perrin. A recession economy can affect more than just your employer’s revenue stream; it can also affect the software you use. It’s time to start thinking about how to minimize any negative effects that may have on your systems’ security. You can find more posts like this on TechRepublic’s security blog.


In today’s recession economy, IT industry companies may run into financial trouble. Many smaller software vendors are likely to fail or get swallowed up by larger vendors that have a different vision for the software they provide. Even larger organizations may cut major product lines, or perhaps even disappear entirely, if things get bad enough.

That may not affect most of us very much (aside from saturating the employment market with people in need of new jobs, I suppose), but it may more directly affect some of us. One such possible effect could be the loss of ongoing development and support for software that we use on a daily basis. Part of maintaining the security of our computers and networks is ensuring that security vulnerabilities are identified and fixed. Unfortunately, when the vendor of a closed source, proprietary piece of software disappears or ends support for the software, it’s not only difficult (in many cases effectively impossible) to get needed security patch support; it’s also illegal to do so.

As you consider future software deployment options, consider the likelihood the software will continue to receive support. Companies with large cash reserves such as Microsoft are more likely to survive the recession intact; software lines that are central to a company’s business model such as Adobe Photoshop are more likely to receive continued support; and, ultimately, popular open source projects are more likely on average to survive the recession intact than closed source software vendors, because their continued development is not as dependent on having a lot of disposable income.

Open source projects aren’t even dependent on any organization, because if current developers just give up on it, there’s nothing stopping others from picking up where they left off. In fact, as financial belts tighten, open source software projects may actually get stronger, as tighter finances create opportunities for more open source software deployments.

In addition to making decisions with more of an eye toward the potential survivability of a given piece of software in the face of a failing economy, some attention should be paid to how compatible any software you select is with other offerings that can serve the same purposes for you. Sometimes, when making (hopefully educated) guesses about things like how likely a piece of software is to continue to receive support, we guess incorrectly. There are always likely to be factors we didn’t know about when our guesses were made that will affect the accuracy of those guesses. Choosing for maximum compatibility between applications is one way to hedge your bets.

If you select a piece of software that uses file formats or works with input and output streams according to open standards, and for some reason that piece of software ceases receiving support for security updates, it may be very easy and very cheap to switch to a different piece of software without losing any data or suffering any operational discontinuity (that’s managerial language for “day to day business coming to a screeching, expensive halt”). Even if there isn’t really any set of applications that all use the same open standards in a given case, allowing a one-for-one replacement in case changing software selections becomes necessary, there are still things you can do to make a potential future transition easier. The two biggest aids in that regard are choosing software for which you have access to the source code (whether through licensing deals with the vendor, favoring applications written in interpreted rather than compiled languages, or using open source software) and choosing software that uses easily parsed data formats (i.e., plain text).

When selecting software, especially in what may turn out to be a very volatile next few years for the software industry, add to your criteria concerns over the possibility of what you choose simply going away some day (or at least ceasing to receive security support). Choosing well may help you avoid larger costs later on.

While you’re at it, have a look at what you’re already using and see how future-proof it is. If you can improve that situation without business disruption now, rather than unexpectedly finding business already disrupted later and having to fix it then, you’ll be better off.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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OSS is not free, nor altruistic in nature
aszakal@... Updated - 25th Mar 2009
Let me remind the author and readers that OSS exists for several reasons. As a foundation for implementing open standards and as method for creating an industry ecosystem for innovation. Most all OSS is funded by vendors (some gov, some VC). If the vendor community is hurt by the economy (yet to be seen) then so will OSS. OSS is not developed for altruistic reasons - it's to create a foundation to implement other vendor based applications - neither is it free. OSS distributors are vendors just as much as MS, Oracle, IBM, SAP, Sun, etc. And all of these vendors are playing in the OSS space by funding development teams that contribute and manage OSS projects.
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It reminds me of something I read recently which said that the cost of migrating off a product if it uses a hidden/proprietary protocol should be included in the purchase assessment so that a better decision can be made regarding the possible overall cost of the product.
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I am not so sure you're right about the survivability of open source software in this tough financial environment. Open source relies on developers having free time to give to these projects. As developers have to commit more time to finding and keeping their jobs, they may be distracted from these projects. I guess the hope is that when they lose their jobs (as many unfortunatley will in this climate), they will use that "leisure time" to more actively support open source projects.

FYI, although it's much worse this time around, I was involved in a small software company during the 1990s recession. We employed 12 people in 1991 and by the time we got back into economic good times in 1994 our staff was more than 80. Trick was, we had a product that saved money for big business, so as economic conditions got worse, our product just got better and better. We sustained 40%+ year on year growth while the rest of the economy was in negative.

So don't lose hope.
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History
daengbo 23rd Mar 2009
You just need to look at the first dot bomb to see how open source will deal. It did pretty well coming out of that one.
Given the current economic crisis and lack of comprehensive OTA/cloud services that target both consumers and prosumers, Techstone Soft has created a suite of services (MobiWee.com) to offer compelling OS agnostic self-care solutions at a fraction of the cost of traditional host/server models.
If I were you guys, I'd be worried how your beloved microslop will
make it through the recession. You give them as an example of a
company with a lot of cash reserve, but they have far less cash
than their only competitor (Apple), and the MS mindshare has
dwindled to almost nothing. And they have no compelling
products. I know they have your back, but no one cares about
that but you.

Also, talk about going with proprietary solutions, MS is the king of
proprietary software. Don't let the so called open hardware fool
you. Apple has proprietary hardware, but their software is based
on open source and open standards, it works far better than the
stuff you push, and no one wants it anymore.
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Wow
daengbo 23rd Mar 2009
I'm no MS fan (in fact, I'm a full-time Debian user), but to say that MS is more proprietary than Apple is ludicrous. Apple bases its stuff on open source software, but it generally uses BSD or MIT, and closes that stuff right up.

Apple is a vertical solution shop. You get everything from them. They do what they can to lock you in, too.

Pages uses .pages files. Keynote uses .key files. Mail uses .emlx files. iTunes stores data in an ITL file. Some of these are bundles with XML, but some aren't. They are all proprietary and specific to the application. Try to find applications to convert them. Converting your mail from Mail.app to Thunderbird is about a dozen steps.

Sure, if you stay in the BSD layer, everything's standard Unix and open formats, but the moment you start looking at using applications, your data is in locked-up formats. Sure, you can export some of the stuff, but that's no different than any MS program, really. Mass conversions are going to kill you.

It doesn't matter that printing uses CUPS and iChat uses SIP because there's no data stored there.
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If you weren't doing that already...
David Gale 23rd Mar 2009
If you weren't doing that already... pick up your cards and find another industry to work in.
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I think that cost has much more to do with the recession-depression-inflation problem we will have. Consider M$ and you pay big bucks for first, the app, then the online training, and again for support, and don't say it's free here.

Since Sun is now going to be bought or merged, will Open Office stay with a X-86 version for PC's?

Would a lesser program that's freeware do the job that Powerpoint, Excel, or Word, or all the online stuff M$ has? I think so.

If you have decent programmers that can code fast, efficient programs then that helps.

Then of course there are torrents and no problem for those who use 'apps' that are available.

So, it all depends on about two things here. Are you going to see a 70% tax on business with the runaway govt spending, which is NOT over by any means. Would that mean you pack up and move to someplace more compelling?

When this is not done right with the careless spending, you could see 20% inflation this time. Be prepared folks. That should be enough to curb high priced software right there.

With Vista getting bad response and Win 7 no more than 3% faster than XP (right now) then who said you'd see a 25% boost in speed and where is it?

Yeah 7 Ultimate may switch to Basic when running apps but why? Does 7 need all that ram while just doing eye candy?

It might be better to ask, will your hardware survive with a new OS now. If say ATI-Nvidia, HP etc have financial woes over this insane spending-inflation, where are the drivers gonna be in a year??

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Very true
philsimonsystems 24th Mar 2009
I remember a client of mine that chose Lawson a few years ago primarily due to the uncertainty of PeopleSoft's acquisition by Oracle. Clients would be well-advised to take potential future acquisition into account. However, most organizations do not have the budget for a Tier 1 ERP--those that are least likely to be acquired. Bottom line: Nothing is certain.
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Look at contracts and database carefully...
randysmith@... 24th Mar 2009
It was touched upon, but not really explained in the article that source code might be available. When purchasing software or systems from vertical application companies, look for a contract clause that provides the application code in escrow (held by a separate legal entity), with a provision to make it available to licensees in the event of the publisher's demise. That gets around the legal problems of obtaining or modifying copyrighted software. And, the selection of a common, open database also provides an advantage over a proprietary or even an obsolete database structure.
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Software as a Service will carry through
cole.parker Updated - 25th Mar 2009
In a down market it's "new" purchases that people cut out. Sure they cut down on recurring expenses but much less so and if they do they only downsize not cut out. If the software company sells a service then they are continuing to deliver value to every customer including "your company" and therefore need "you the employee" to keep up the work. If it's on a CD already the client can just wait to buy it and company can wait to build anything new.

But I might be biased....

Cole Parker
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OSS is not free, nor altruistic in nature
aszakal@... Updated - 25th Mar 2009
Let me remind the author and readers that OSS exists for several reasons. As a foundation for implementing open standards and as method for creating an industry ecosystem for innovation. Most all OSS is funded by vendors (some gov, some VC). If the vendor community is hurt by the economy (yet to be seen) then so will OSS. OSS is not developed for altruistic reasons - it's to create a foundation to implement other vendor based applications - neither is it free. OSS distributors are vendors just as much as MS, Oracle, IBM, SAP, Sun, etc. And all of these vendors are playing in the OSS space by funding development teams that contribute and manage OSS projects.

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