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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

HP's strategy: A credibility check

By | March 17, 2011, 3:38am PDT

Hewlett-Packard CEO Leo Apotheker laid out a master plan this week that had a heavy dose of cloudspeak, WebOS and software. How credible is the plan?

Now that a few days have gone by, it’s worth doing a credibility check on the strategy and assess whether HP has the chops to turn its 30,000 foot view into real execution.

On Sunday, I previewed the HP meeting. The hot topics going into the meeting were:

  • Software.
  • Services.
  • WebOS.
  • Innovation.
  • The PC business and Apple envy.

Following the meeting it’s worth expanding that list by one topic to include cloud computing.

The overall message from the HP meeting boils down to the following:

  • HP intends to be a cloud platform and SaaS player.
  • The company has a lot of software intellectual property that hasn’t bubbled up to become products.
  • Apotheker thinks HP can be an analytics player.
  • HP is going to force feed WebOS with its distribution.
  • The company still values its consumer business and doesn’t intend to be “a junior player” in the tablet market.

Now for the reality check. Following HP’s meeting and all the cloud chatter there were two responses from observers. The skeptical crowd said that HP was cloudwashing the same old stack it has been trying to sell. As for HP’s plans to become an app market for consumer and enterprise apps, critics said that any freshly minted MBA could have spun Apotheker’s strategy.

The folks who were more constructive about HP said that the company was delivering a broad strategy and could fill in details later. Apotheker said that HP’s cloud strategy—including an app market launch—would become more evident in 2011 and 2012. These observers also thought HP could become a credible cloud platform provider.

Here’s a look at the big issues for HP and whether the company’s strategy day clarified anything.

Software. Going into the HP Summit it was clear that the company would talk about building and buying a software business. Analysts were expecting a mix of open source and SaaS.

Instead, HP talked a lot about analytics. “Analytics is a huge space that is poorly served today,” said Apotheker. After his keynote and Q&A session, Apotheker told me HP would attack analytics via SaaS, on-premise and appliances. The timeline: 12 months. Apotheker noted that a host of HPers spend their days on analytics.

More importantly, HP didn’t talk about reinventing the wheel. HP has no interest in competing with Oracle and SAP. The Oracle relationship will revolve around coopetition. Apotheker hinted that SAP and HP will become tighter. That outcome isn’t much of a surprise since HP now has a bevy of SAP veterans—including Apotheker—running around the executive suite. Related: HP to go software shopping: Here’s the potential hit list

Cowen analyst Peter Goldmacher said:

From the perspective of a software investor, HP has decided to leave the high end of the enterprise to IBM and Oracle in favor of a broad based platform strategy designed to create a variety of low cost cloud computing alternatives focused on connectivity to a myriad of end points including PCs, mobile devices and printers. While the company intends to continue to compete aggressively at the high end of the server market, it explicitly stated it has no intention of owning transactional apps or purchasing legacy software franchises. This comment is sure to dampen much of the take out discussion in Enterprise Software. We believe HP’s platform will appeal to the broadest spectrum of users and use cases possible. While going after the low end user will open up new markets, the creation of a low cost “build/test/deploy” platform with enterprise chops will definitely matter to Oracle and IBM over time. Execution is a lot harder than vision, but the vision is compelling.

Credibility check: HP’s software plans were credible and logical. HP outlined a high level software vision that made sense because it didn’t involve disrupting existing software giants. In addition, it’s quite believable that HP has software intellectual property that hasn’t been turned into products. The analytics execution remains to be seen, but the vision works.

Topics

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: What happens when the cloud doesn't work?
drumandyou Updated - 28th Feb
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The difficulty in selling analytics is that it represents an existential threat to various fiefdoms, managers, and experts throughout the enterprise.

Take database marketing, an obvious candidate for the application of analytics. Somewhere in every such company there is a room full of "data base jocks" who compose magnificent SQL statements to extract just the right people for a specific mailing. Now here you come to sell them what amounts to a 'bot' that will not only do their jobs faster, but better. Well, guess what. They will oppose you at every turn, did up horror stories about other analytics deployments, and so on.

Sales forecasting is another obvious application. Except that here you are encroaching on the turf of the Sales VP, who uses the forecast to manipulate which products get built and which don't. He doesn't like your analytics either.

Obviously, analytics projects do happen, they do get sold, and many of them are quite successful. But selling them is a long, slow, slog through corporate mud.
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agreed...
GeiselS@... Updated - 17th Mar 2011
@Robert Hahn You are are totally right and not only that, what in HP's history shows them to be a viable and smart long term investment into their software? Let's face it, HP is a hardware company and diving into this space where bigger software companies already dabble is just putting the company in a position to be knocked down on the hardware front. Perhaps Microsoft needs to buy a hardware company. After all with Oracle taking on Sun and Linux and now HP moving away from Windows to their WebOS, perhaps Microsoft needs to get on the same playing field as Apple and make their own hardware. Problem is with all these companies going this route, the consumer in the end will lose getting stuck with substandard something or other... If HP was truly on track, they would be coming up with cool hardware gadgets and approaching software companies to develop the software to go with it. Just like a consultant...I'd take a specialist any day over a jack of all trades unless of course I want them to just do everything adequately and don't care if they really do anything exceptionally well. HP has lost its vision...sad.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
914four Updated - 20th Mar 2011
@GeiselS@...
HP actually has a long history of software development and having ground-breaking technologies; some examples are Openview Enterprise Manager (any real-world bake-off at a customer site against Tivoli would be won before the IBM folks could even show a console), HP New Wave (if you run any version of Windows higher than Windows 95 you have HP to thank for the GUI), PCL (and HP-GL), (if you print chances are good you are using one of these control languages), if you've ever used a tape drive directly attached to a Windows NT (or any flavor of Windows Server) you used HP software (check out TapeTools, an amazing collection of utilities HP never really bothered to sell), 64 bit Linux, AppIQ, Mercury, and a whole list of others HP bought or created and then relegated to obscurity. No, HP has a long history of making decent software, their biggest issue has always been one of execution, they have consistently been unable to sell the products that they make because of... well, it would take too long to go into that. It still boils down to Business Week's statement about sushi; if HP sold it they would call it "Cold raw fish."

*edited to fix typo
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
tkejlboom 17th Mar 2011
@Robert Hahn

Actually, you've just convinced me they may do it! HP is gargantuan, and the forecasts of key components in key regions have been off by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE for years at a time in some cases. HP will probably get adequate ROI if they can get analytics right and just use it internally.
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@Robert Hahn 100% right on, you nailed it.
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Pipe dreams in my opinion
jscott418 17th Mar 2011
So I think we can safely say much of HP's focus may be just pipe dreams. For a company like HP who sells a lot of consumer and business tech. They really have done very little inovative. They spend very little on R&D and their products are not revolutionary. They are followers much like the rest of the PC industry. Will this dramatically change? I doubt it.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
puppadave 17th Mar 2011
I said it before and I will say it again... HP is an hour late and a dollar short!!! Dell is kicking the butts in both enterprise and consumer sales... An this coming from a long time HP product user (with exception to PCs which are "Home brewed"
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RE: What happens when the cloud doesn't work?
drumandyou Updated - 28th Feb
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Non-techie Talk 17th Mar 2011
"There are only so many platforms for developers to chase and the WebOS is clearly playing from behind."

I'll never understand this kind of argument. Before Apple had an app store, the same could be said of them vs. the then-existing ecosystem of Palm OS 5 apps (sans the catchy lingo to call them that)?

In any league, race, competition, there is one leader and a whole bunch of competitors. EVERYONE except the leader is "behind" the leader - should they all just pack up and concede?

Apple got to be the leader by NOT swallowing "we're playing from behind, therefore we have no chance."

Every leader is challenged to keep on top of their game, lest competition innovate and gain. Remember when MSIE was the browser market share dominator? What kind of internet would we have if Opera and Firefox and Chrome thought "we're playing from behind, might as well not bother"? And here we are, with MSIE at, what, 60% market share, healthy competition, and each browser with its piece of the pie (and, for the record, I use Opera, and Firefox, and Chrome, and I do not use MSIE).

webOS is innovative. It will get distribution. There will be, thus, a pool of demand potential. In a free market, where there's demand, there will be supply, and those who get on the supply side of the market will win share.

Having said all this, clearly I'm a lonely dissenter amongst all the comments here that do not credit HP with the capability to be successful with this plan. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and we shall see what we shall see.

http://nontechietalk.blogspot.com
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Rich Miles Updated - 17th Mar 2011
@Non-techie Talk

I am in agreement with your assessment of the "late to the party" crowd. That might hold true for developers trying to overthrow Google from their basement, but you can't count out these mega-corporations. In fact, it's often less risky to enter a market that has been established than to create the market yourself. They have a lot of money to carve out their slice of the pie.

You mention IE (disclaimer: IE9 user) and I remember when Netscape was the defacto standard. I remember when ICQ created instant messaging and the awesome wars between MSN Messenger and AOL IM. I remember Word Perfect and Lotus 1-2-3. I used Borland C++ when Visual Studio was awful. I did tech support for AOL and I actually had a MySpace account. I remember when there was no way that the xBox would ever overtake the Playstation and the Wii was a joke (can you believe they named it that?). I remember when Ballmer laughed about the iPhone. I remember lots of things.

webOS definitely has potential, but as I said below they *have* to fix the developer story and they need something more compelling than a tablet that *might* be a little better than an iPad.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Non-techie Talk 17th Mar 2011
@Rich Miles I hear you. My apologies for poo-pooing on MS in my diatribe. Indeed, MS (albeit through not-always-above board-methods) has entered spaces late and ended up dominating, WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 are fantastic examples, I certainly remember!

Bottom line here is, starting "from behind" is not, in and of itself, a guarantee of failure; so please, for the love of business history reality and higher thought, techie journalists really ought to quit using that party line.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Eleutherios 17th Mar 2011
@Non-techie Talk
I fully agree with your point, and I'm a developer! However, HP must provide good dev. tools to potential WebOS developers. Apple's and MS's success in terms of building a substantial app ecosystem has relied on the provision of excellent development environments (technically speaking). I'd be willing to look at WebOS if HP provides good dev tools for that platform.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Non-techie Talk 17th Mar 2011
@Eleutherios I'm not a developer, so let me ask you - has HP's webOS SDK changed substantially from the SDK Palm put out before they were acquired?

You're right about good development tools. Back in the day, Palm was king but the parameters were wide enough to accommodate all levels of 3rd party coding quality and Palm sunk as a result of its "buggy-ness" which may have been in part due to conflicts with 3rd party apps on any particular device.

When iPhone first launched, the world wondered and waited to hear IF Apple would allow 3rd party development, and all eyes were on what their SDK would support.

Well, that's all history now, they (magically) managed to allow 3rd party apps while still ensuring a narrow-enough SDK to raise their chances of maintaining a consistent user experience.

So, we "users" can still appreciate what you're saying: the development tools - narrow enough to ensure stability, but broad enough to encourage developers to run with it - will be critical to seeing apps proliferate that capture people's imagination, productivity needs...
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Rich Miles 17th Mar 2011
What remains to be seen is whether an army of WebOS printers and PCs creates an ecosystem. The sweet spot for developers is mobile. HP doesn?t have the smartphones or tablets to give the WebOS mass distribution. You can create distribution for WebOS, but it?s unclear whether developers can create apps that can take advantage of the PC, printer, tablet, smartphone connections.

As it stands now, the developer story is terrible compared to the competition. I haven't seen the beta of the new tools so perhaps HP has been fixing it over the last year.

I like what I've seen of the Touchpad so far, but I haven't seen the "holy crap" feature that makes it better than the iPad. That goes with all tablets.

You can create the Move -- a little better than the Wii but not earth shattering -- or you can create the Kinect. It is not a better Wii. It's an entirely new category. Sure you can complain about casual gamers or Kinects collecting dust, but entirely new categories of experiences will be created because of the technology and many of them won't be related to gaming.

Apple has been doing this -- leap frogging -- for nearly a decade. The iPod is the defacto MP3 player. The iPhone is the defacto smart phone. The iPad is the defacto tablet. Everyone else is an also-ran compared to Apple.

If HP wants to be the leader in consumer electronics then they need to do a lot better than putting out a tablet that might be a little better than an iPad. They need to create an entirely new class of experiences. I think Hurd cut that DNA out of HP and it's going to be a long, hard road to get it back.

For now, if somebody is going to dethrone Apple it's going to be Google or Microsoft. Microsoft seems like they aren't even going to try until Windows 8 and Google needs some serious help in the user experience department -- the issues plaguing Google TV are symptoms of a systemic problem, not a hiccup. What gets me the most is that I don't find Apple's experiences all that compelling. They just seem to be the best of what's available.

One last thing. Are the millions of printers running webOS really going to cultivate an ecosystem for developers?
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Non-techie Talk 17th Mar 2011
@Rich Miles wrote "One last thing. Are the millions of printers running webOS really going to cultivate an ecosystem for developers?"

Good question! Again, there's no question that HP has their work cut out for them. But, remember that they became the largest PC vendor in the world with help from the strategic acquisition of Compaq, back when Dell was also growing as a major distributor. They attempted through that acquisition to also compete in the PDA space (Journada, etc). HP's picking up webOS wasn't a random shot in the dark, it can help power all their devices - PCs, smartphones, printers, with the kind of solid platform that currently does not exist.

They have the technology and the distribution. What remains to be seen is whether they have the vision and management to work a plan and gain traction.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Rich Miles Updated - 17th Mar 2011
@Non-techie Talk

"HP's picking up webOS wasn't a random shot in the dark, it can help power all their devices - PCs, smartphones, printers, with the kind of solid platform that currently does not exist.

This is something I agree with completely. HP is one of a handful of companies that has the potential to make this work. While I think it's a long shot, I still think it has a chance of working.

Since their announcement in February I have been paying attention. I have set up a developer account and have been waiting for them to get back to me on a developer device. I am hoping they get back to me soon.

Since I started this little adventure, I have noticed that the development experience is really jumbled. They have two development paths, the SDK (web development) and the PDK (plug-in development). Of course, you can do hybrids of those. This by itself isn't too different from Windows Phone Silverlight and Windows Phone XNA options.

What environment should I do my development in? Well, they have the online version (Ares), they have a plug-in for Eclipse called Aplanta, they have a PDK solution for Visual Studio 2008 (relatively minor modifications can get it working on VS 2010), and their videos often demonstrate creating things with the command-line tools and text editors.

I was able to get the PDK sample running in Visual Studio pretty quickly. Ares (the online tool) is pretty good but despite running in Java it doesn't run in IE and says it's been tested for Chrome 3,4 (my version of Chrome is 10). There is a plug-in for Eclipse called Aplanta that is my favorite environment so far, but my Eclipse doesn't have the right plug-ins to properly highlight Javascript and HTML so I'm working on that. The version of VirtualBox that is required is version 3, but the latest version is version 4.

I guess my point is that if they want to woo developers, they need to simplify the process. I should be able to go to their site, tell them I'm running Windows 7 - x64 and have it install everything I need. I would prefer those tools to be a step or two above command line and Notepad.

I am going to fight through the issues because I do see the potential and I think they will work out the kinks.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
StanJohnston 17th Mar 2011
Rich hit the nail on the head. While everyone was gushing over HP's margins under Hurd, few people looked at how he was doing it -- mainly on the expense side. His merger-and-aquisition strategy was driven by efficiency projections more than technology contributions. And much of HP's cost savings came from workforce reductions, including R&D and IT. Rich's term "DNA" was great. Bill and Dave fostered a culture of quantum innovation (ie, Apple "leap frogging" in recent years). Recovering that will take time -- and patience from the Board, not a given. I do think HP has opportunities in commercial SaaS, especially if they let the EDS team regain its mojo. Unfortunately, size does matter in turning a ship...
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
mschafer555 17th Mar 2011
HP's software business has never really contributed much revenue. Perhaps an acquisition or 2 is required...
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Good lck to them, and us.
johnmckay 17th Mar 2011
If nothing else the ipad has shown that millions of folk just need a web portal of sorts with little editing/creating of real data. That's gone in the face of many 'expert' views, mine included. So... keeping an open mind why wouldn't I want some of HP Web OS for the house at least? And why wouldn'y I expect that to have a place in the enterprise. Many things are being controlled from a web browser these days... so why not cut the cr$p and just load the browser in effect?

I'm looking forward to an IOS style with creativity and PC style functionality. The best of both worlds. Whats wrong with that?
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
Cantaffordit 17th Mar 2011
webOS rocks. I sure hope this puts it into the public so that the momentum will accelerate.
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TRUTH:
nomoreds 17th Mar 2011
This whole HP thing is getting uglier by the minute!



fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com/2011/03/rest-in-peace-zune.html
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
dalspartan 17th Mar 2011
This will either be a rousing success causing many of us to wish we'd bought their stock, or come crashing down quickly.
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RE: HP's strategy: A credibility check
neilpost Updated - 18th Mar 2011
HP need to do the following

- Junk WebOS/Palm as incredible waste of time and resource
- Do a deal with Amazon to joint venture Amazon Web Services
- Sort out analytics. It is well served and the market is well defined, the problem is that HP don't have a solution where IBM and SAP do
- Realise the consumer market will never be more than a few PC's, a few laptops, and a few printers. They just cannot compete with Acer/Dell/Lenovo (IBM smelled the coffee and off-loaded 5 years or more ago).
- Consolidate and shore up their market share in Corporate server, PC, infrastructure
- Buy EMC, who Dell seem oblivious to them being the solution to their enterprise scale issues, and perhaps Citrix too - Before Oracle figure this out.
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Here's the fine detail...
bjames3 18th Mar 2011
I have good friends that work in HP, today. Sales, Services, former EDS guys. The net from their trench is that this will take a long time to execute. And massive reorganization and reprogramming of the firm. Leo needs to remember that he sells PC's and Magenta. Ink and Intel, that's it. PC's, Printers, and Magenta, that's $90B of his enterprise. You are not going to switch from that strategy overnight. Wall Street will not let you mess with your earnings, your EPS or your profit forecasts without handing you your head if you miss it. So Leo will have to sell Intel and Ink and will continue to do so. My friends all say it, they are not a professional software company. They do a horrible job of integrating multi-discipline platforms, OpenView, IT Service Management, Desktop service management, Security, Networks, all of it is a cluge to manage through. Customer hate dealing with HP on this stuff because every business silo in the place has to have it baked their way and not what the customer wants. Go ahead, try and put a contract in place involving PC desktop support services and Managed service desk. It's a nightmare to get done because of the way they approach the business. Everything requires a 110 piece Craftsman tool chest to bolt it together to work and to bill properly to the customer. And the service and sales people get throttled in the process. And we haven't even gone to the discussion on how they mess with their compensation. Just a nightmare. A vast majority of the HP Sales and Service force is so beat up internally that they can hardly be effective in front of a customer. Everyone knows it, and their competition.

So if Leo wants to pull this off, he's going to have to personally get into those details or this vision/strategy is going to be the biggest thud to hit the floorboards over there since Bill and Dave was running the place.
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I think intelligence in appliances, is something whose time has come. This include very large copy machines and printers to desktop devices. Every machine and every model seems to have a different interface, to many are confusing, and a lot S**K. I can see where standardization, will help. It would even help PC printers, with WebOS on the printer, every single HP printer could have he same interface to the outside world. And the print program and driver could all be the same for all hp printers. If you never have had these problems, especiall across a new O/s you are either a lot smarter than me or have someone else do it.

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