HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

Summary: HP's TouchPad is likely to ding Android tablet market share in the third quarter.

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HP's TouchPad---and the $99 fire sale that came with its death---will slow the market share gains for Android tablets, according to IDC.

IDC said global media tablet shipments surged 303.8 percent in the second quarter compared to a year ago -- to 13.6 million units. IDC is forecasting 62.5 million units for 2011, up from its previous outlook for 53.5 million units.

That overview, however, is a footnote to the market share battle in tablets. As everyone knows, Apple's iPad is top dog with 68.3 percent market share. RIM grabbed 4.9 percent of the market with its PlayBook and Android tablet share fell to 26.8 percent in the second quarter, down from 34 percent in the first quarter.

The upshot is that Apple and RIM thwarted Android's tablet advance. RIM's showing was solid overall, but the real hit to Android market share will come from HP's TouchPad.

HP killed the TouchPad, but its liquidation sale was a hit. IDC said:

IDC expects many consumers who were on the fence about buying a media tablet to scoop up $99 TouchPads as a result of HP's decision to end production of its tablet product. IDC expects close to a million TouchPads to ship into the channel before the end of the year. As a result, WebOS's worldwide market share is forecast to reach 4.7% in 3Q11. However, with no clear plan to license or sell the OS to other vendors, IDC expects WebOS market share to shrink back to zero by 1Q12.

The bottom line is Android's tablet share will fall to 23 percent in the third quarter before rebounding in the fourth quarter. It's clear that price matters and Android tablets need to become less expensive in a hurry to gain market share.

In fact, Android's tablet march looks downright shaky for the likes of Motorola, HTC, Samsung and others. Consider:

  • A soon-to-be-defunct tablet derailed Android market share.
  • An Amazon tablet will give consumers more choice with a quasi-Android device.
  • A year from now there will be Windows 8 tablets available.

None of those items are good for massive Android market share gains.

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Topics: Tablets, Android, Hardware, Hewlett-Packard, Laptops, Mobility

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29 comments
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  • Many TouchPads bought to run Android

    Considering that a lot of people (including me) bought the TouchPads to put Android on it, the Android tablet OS share may actually be larger this quarter. Of course this doesn't mean anything to the manufacturers.<br><br>IMO, the Android tablets are already better than the iPad in terms of the same things that Android phones are better than iPhones - openness, connectivity, form factors etc. They all suffer from the same thing - Price. Very few tablets are worth the price for what they are capable of today. The iPads are waaay overpriced. I bought one and got rid of it in a few months. For me, the Asus transformer comes closest to the best value for money. But even that is about $100 too much. I think $250-$300 is the sweet spot for tablets. I don't know if that's profitable for tablet makers or not. If it is, then iPads will end up in the same situation as the iPhones. If not, then iPads will sell to a limited market and the market will not grow beyond a certain point. Every one else will just get out.
    os2baba
    • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

      @os2baba
      Can you prove your response headline "Many Touchpads bought to run Android". I don't agree with that. Also it is not one android to one iPhone, many Android(s) to single iPhone. If it were not for BOGO, BOG5 plans, Android wouldn't be enjoying this. In other words, carriers are rubbing majority of androids with discounted price or sometimes free. I don't think a particular Android Tablet would take over iPad in any near future.
      Ram U
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Rama.NET I do. If I were to buy a Touchpad, I would probably put Android on it, and in other articles and responses, many have said the same. That a particular Android tablet takes over the iPad is not the point. The point is competition so that people who don't like the way Apple does things have a choice.
        Hameiri
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Hameiri
        Forget about the techies or adventuring individuals, but majority of Touchpad buyers bought it because it was cheaper than Kindle and Touchpad has Kindle. That is like two birds at one shot at discounted price. I have a touchpad and I would venture out as soon as Windows 8 Build for ARM is released. And that makes I wouldn't be counted in many of touchpad owners that os2baba was referring. Now tell me how many of "Many Touchpads bought to run Android" would really go for Android reading some stuff at XDA or other sites.
        Ram U
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Rama.NET

        The ratio of people putting Android on Touchpads vs. not is probably very similar to the ratio of Android users rooting their phones vs. not. The "rooters" like to think that many others are doing the same thing because they witness it in their circles (tech site comments, IT Departments, etc.). But that's a faulty sample. It's like assuming because your from Cleveland and most people you know in Cleveland are Browns fans that a most football fans are Browns fans.

        I suspect that in reality, Android will find it's way onto only a small percentage of Touchpads.
        TroyMcClure
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Rama.NET Why do you care? I keep seeing these impassioned posts declaring why the iPad won't lose its position as the number 1 tablet. As long as Apple makes a profit on iPads and there are enough to continue interesting developers, why do you care whether iPad is 80% of the market or 40%?<br><br>I personally own an Android tablet and phone and as long as they are supported and have enough market to interest developers, I really don't care whether any or all Android manufacturers combined outsell Apple.
        sbf95070
      • Because a &quot;Lie&quot; said long enough without

        @sbf95070 ... fair questioning becomes the truth.

        Pagan jim
        James Quinn
      • TouchPad, Android and webOS

        @Rama.NET
        You were clearly not following the chatter about the TouchPad. Apart from the price, the main selling point was the prospect of Android conversion, as it was for me.

        However, people tended to be pleasantly surprised by webOS (as was I), and the Holy Grail now is a dual-boot TouchPad with webOS retained on side of Android.
        csomole
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Rama.NET I bought two. One for me and one for my wife or parents. Haven't decided yet. They'll both be running Android before they get used significantly.
        kkovach24
    • Really? Everyone I know with a touchpad aren't even considering

      @os2baba
      putting Android on it, so where did you came up with that statement?
      William Farrell
    • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

      @os2baba
      Thats still more myth than reality. I got a fire sale touchpad and following the webos dev comunity closely. Android on the touchpad is not really there. There's more proof of concept than actual practical implementation.
      rengek
  • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

    Yes. Android device makers really need to fear a now defunct tablet. Are you seriously suggesting that the only way Android tablet makers can compete with Apple is by selling $99 tablets? That sounds like a good way to sell a lot of units while losing your shirt.
    RocketEater
  • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

    I don't see the issue. Even though the fire sale sold out of all the HP tablets thats still less than 1 million units. The second batch will put it slightly over 1 million. But then thats it. Sale is over, no more new ones. How is 1 million webOs tablets that will not grow any further going to threaten android tablet sales?
    rengek
    • They get old

      It's likely that the million TouchPads that got sold at $99 came mostly out of the hide of Android tablets that were already built and in the retail sales channel. While those are sitting there waiting for the "HP Hurricane" to blow away, other newer Android tablets with better specs are coming out. My guess is that manufacturers will end up with a good half-million Android tablets that they are going to have to deeply discount to get them out of the warehouses. HP is much better positioned than, say, HTC or Motorola Mobility to take this kind of hit to earnings.

      Bottom line: the HP fire sale could cause at least one or two Android tablet makers to quit the race.
      Robert Hahn
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Robert Hahn
        +1
        Ram U
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @Robert Hahn Hope you are right about the pipeline. I would love it if Google decided to dump old Xooms for $100!<br><br>On a serious note, I am sure that you are correct that people who bought $100 Touch Pads were not seriously considering iPad. The real issue when assessing damage to the Android market is were they in the market at all or did they just make an impluse buy because the price was right.<br><br>I suspect that Google/Moto, ASUS, Acer, Toshiba know what they are getting into and have the resources to last through something like the dumping of Touch Pads.
        sbf95070
    • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

      @rengek

      I think the point of the blog is, as its title indicates (see "tenuous"), if a retired product can negatively impact Android's tablet marketshare, even if only temporarily, then Android's tablet marketshare is far from being on solid ground.

      That means that the iPad3, the Amazon and Windows 8 tablets, all of which are likely to be released in the next 3-18 months, are serious threats to Android's marketshare. Amazon is poised to offer the most similar consumer ecosystem to Apple (and yes, this matters, no matter what free and open advocates say). along with Windows 8 tablets comes Microsoft's corporate dominance and the integration/compatibility advantages that come with it, and iPad 3 will be the latest offering from the biggest player in the tablet market today.

      Now if the Touchpad's last hurrah and RIM's ho-hum Playbook can impact Android's marketshare, what will the steady and heavy fire coming down the road from Amazon, Apple and MS do?
      TroyMcClure
      • Just to be fair ....

        @piousmonk The so called Amazon tablet is (allegedly) an Android tablet. The (alleged) fact that it will have a completely obsolete version of Android on release date is something else. But in the end it counts as an Android OS tablet.

        I don't see RIM making any dent with the Playbook .... specially since they stop production and didn't manufacture even 1/2 of what HP had in TouchPads.

        Also, by the time MS actually comes out with anything, the market would had move too far ahead for them to catchup .... just like with Win Phone 7.
        wackoae
      • RE: HP's TouchPad likely share gains show Android's tenuous tablet position

        @wackoae

        RIM apparently already made a dent with the Playbook. They grabbed almost a 5% marketshare. You gotta figure with 27% split between Samsung, Asus, Moto, Sharp, etc., none of the Android OEMs have much more than 5%. Now given Apple has over 68% marketshare and Android's share dropped by 7%, who do you think took the hit from RIM's entrance?
        TroyMcClure
      • Get a life please...

        @piousmonk

        Windows 8 devices are vapourware, Amazons not much clearer. I might buy either of them depending what the end product is BUT I'm not waiting. Anyone thats waiting has no money, or no credibility, or no need for a tablet. Anyone needing or wanting one will buy what they can. Who is seriously going to wait 18 months??? NOBODY!

        I've an Asus Transformer used daily by everyone, and an ipad that sits in my bag. I paid for the transformer functionality despite being given the ipad from work. I buy what I want, and so should you.

        I dont care if Androids market share takes a hit. Why should I? The only folk that should care are Apple workers, or Android workers. The sad fact is most morons and zealots have a weird satisfaction and desire to wish ill will on a product for no good reason. If this were a nation, or a religion the world would be outraged. It's OK though cos it's only Android (today anyway) and a moronic mass has decided they dont like it, so nobody should like it (might be more valid if they knew what they were talking about). They know best and are protecting me... dont make me laugh!
        johnmckay