IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

Summary: IDC is projecting that there will be nearly 1 billion smartphone unit shipped in 2015 and has begun the long tweaking process for its platform standings.

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IDC is projecting that there will be nearly 1 billion smartphone unit shipped in 2015 and has begun the long tweaking process for its platform standings.

The research firm's quarterly smartphone prognostications include the following:

  • 472 million smartphones shipped in 2011, up from 305 million in 2010;
  • A landscape where Android is the top dog with 40 percent of the market in the second half of 2011;
  • Continued losses for Symbian;
  • Volume gains for Apple iOS and the BlackBerry OS, but market share losses.

However, the most debatable IDC projections revolve around the 2015 view. As noted previously, IDC is projecting the Nokia transition to Windows Phone 7 to go smoothly and that Microsoft will have 20 percent of the mobile platform market.

I argued that IDC's figures for 2015 were bunk and questioned Gartner's take too. Recent events---profit warnings at both Nokia and RIM---make projecting out to 2015 a fool's errand.

Fortunately, IDC is backing off a bit on its Windows Phone 7 optimism. A quarter ago, IDC's Windows Phone 7 2015 market share projection was 20.9 percent. As of Thursday, IDC is at 20.3 percent.

Anyone want to bet that IDC's 2015 projection will be a smidge below 20 percent next quarter? The wild card will be Nokia's market share going into 2012. Today Nokia looks like it is unraveling.

IDC's rationale looks like this:

Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia's transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.

That assumption today looks crazier than it did just three months ago.

Topics: Mobility, Hardware, Microsoft, Nokia, Operating Systems, Smartphones, Software, Windows

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63 comments
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  • this is bull sh*t!

    I mean IDC's prediction is bull sh*t! Windows Phone 7 should have 10% market share before 2012 starts. 30% end of 2012. And kill me if Android still exist in 2015.

    It is amazing how many stupid people in the world!
    jk_10
    • Truly amazing

      How many people like you there are. Oh, that means I agree with you on your last sentence.
      ego.sum.stig
    • Best part is iOS is going to have 4% market share for rest of the year

      Did these analysts even pass grade school and learn basic math.

      This report is laughable at best and imbararesing at worst.
      Bruizer
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Bruizer

        that's embarrassing - grade school must have been hard for you ;-)
        tonymcs@...
    • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

      I agree. In 2006 IDC predicted for 2010 a 36% market share for mobile phones with a Microsoft OS. That prediction is approx. 500% wrong. Currently we see only the opposite. The share of Microsoft OS devices in the mobile world dropped to approx. 6.5 %. That fact is saying everything about the reliability of IDC's prognosis. So from where the market dominance of Microsoft shall come? From Nokia? A company with no real stake in the smartphone world which is doomed to die off?
      hengels
  • Android 43%, how frustrating is that!

    Windows phone 7, is probably going to eat more of BlackBerry, because of businesses.
    razzzor
    • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

      @razzzor
      <i>Windows phone 7, is probably going to eat more of BlackBerry, because of businesses.</i>

      How many businesses are going to want their employees having xbox live at work? How many are going to want employees distracted by constant twitter, Facebook and other social network updates? Unless these features can be disabled, I do not see Corporate America wanting these social network phones in their place of business.
      Rick_K
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Rick_K
        It's already happening. WinPhone 7 is being currently being considered as a replacement to the dated blackberries that all the employees are complaining about (and they all use Torch's). iOS is not even being considered... this being a MS shop and all.
        kstap
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Rick_K

        So, what you are saying is that you don't think corporate america wants their employees to have smartphones.
        SlithyTove
      • Many said the same think about the iPhone

        @Rick_K
        How many businesses are going to want their employees having "Angry Birds" at work? How many are going to want employees distracted by constant twitter, Facebook and other social network updates?
        Will Pharaoh
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Rick_K
        Yes because blackberries cannot access facebook or twitter can they...try to keep up
        saf312
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @SlithyTove
        I guess you missed the sales pitch for the latest version of Windows Mobile? There is a heavy emphasis on Social Network, and gaming features. What business would want that?
        Rick_K
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Rick_K

        Would that be the sales pitch that they are making to consumers? They talk up Office for their corporate targeted ads. Targeted marketing is targeted.

        All major smartphones have Facebook, twitter, etc. All of them have games, and with the exception of Blackberries, they all have good games. They all talk up their capability to play games and to Facebook, and to twitter. Why would GameCenter be fine by a business but not Xbox?

        How many businesses refuse to buy laptops because the laptop can theoretically be used to play Halo?
        SlithyTove
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Rick_K <br>How many business let their employees have iphones at work? Doesn't iphone have nice games???<br><br>Rick_K, Get outta here iNaive!
        mikroland
  • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

    Android is going to eventually crumble under it's own bloated weight. Not to mention the app store that's slowly becoming a festering cesspool of malware lurking in the shadows waiting for another victim.
    razzledazzle
    • Agree except for crumbling due to bloatware

      @razzledazzle The crumbling will be due to the fact that Android is a copycat OS. All they do is copy.

      Without any real innovation, there will be no way for the OS to protect itself from patents ... no matter how much money Google throws at it.
      wackoae
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @wackoae you can throw Apple into that boat now that they totally ripped off Android/BlackBerry/WP7 with iOS5
        jrggzmn
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @jrggzmn
        Any proof to your assertions? Or are you just foaming at the mouth? Improving something is not ripping it off. What Microsoft has done since 1985 is known as IP theft, but that has been their M.O. for so long that they do not know how to do anything else.
        Rick_K
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @Rick_K
        Any proof to your assertions? Or are you just blowing it out the other end? Improving something is not ripping it off. What Apple has done since inception is known as IP theft, but has been their M.O. for so long that they do not know how to do anything else.
        WinTard
      • RE: IDC starts walking down Windows Phone 7 2015 projections

        @WinTard
        You are joking, right? Microsoft has long been known for Embrace, Extend, and Extinguish, or to put it another way IP theft. If I am not mistaken: it was Microsoft, not Apple, that tried to Wrest control of Java from Sun. It has been Microsoft constantly in court for stealing other company?s IP, not Apple.
        Rick_K