Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Intel cuts outlook; Consumer PC demand weak

By | August 27, 2010, 7:08am PDT

Just weeks after an upbeat assessment about its prospects, chip giant Intel cut its revenue outlook for the third quarter based on weak demand for consumer PCs.

The company said in a statement that third quarter revenue will be $11 billion, give or take $200 million. That’s down from a previous outlook of $11.2 billion and $12 billion.

Wall Street was expecting revenue of $11.52 billion with earnings of 53 cents a share.

According to the company:

Revenue is being affected by weaker than expected demand for consumer PCs in mature markets. Inventories across the supply chain appear to be in-line with the company’s revised expectations.

Intel expects gross margins to be about 66 percent, down from the 67 percent it projected. Enterprise demand appears to be solid.

The news is quite a turnabout from Intel’s outlook on July 13. On its second quarter earnings conference call, Intel was upbeat. Nevertheless, some analysts noted that semiconductor companies are always last to know that a downturn is coming.

However, Intel’s news shouldn’t be that surprising and arguably could have been worse. Analysts have been downgrading Intel and AMD because the Asia PC supply chain looks worrisome.

Among the key worries over the last month:

  • Wedbush analyst Patrick Wang said “following a round of industry checks, we come away incrementally more negative on the PC supply chain, in light of lowered 3Q forecasts for both Intel and AMD as well as an expectation for softer DRAM pricing and questionable demand.”
  • Analysts said that inventories are rising and visibility into demand is hazy at best.
  • Notebook builds were tepid in July and distributors are cutting inventory levels.
  • Back-to-school demand just isn’t there. Barclays Capital analyst Tim Luke said “while still early in back to school cycle, broader PC trends for 3Q have continued to remain subdued & seasonal sales guidance may prove bold.”
  • Meanwhile, Baird downgraded Intel based on weak PC demand. J.P. Morgan noted that PC orders are falling off a cliff.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Intel cuts outlook; Consumer PC demand weak
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
essentially must say you generate a array of wonderful things and really will guide a handful of possibilities to generate black ugg in soon just when each day or two.
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To wax philosophical, I think the weak demand for new PCs is because of the profound disappointment of the Windows 7 operating system. I was so frustrated by it that I reloaded Vista on all my computers. To me, Windows 7 is Vista gone backwards. I sure hope Microsoft rethinks how it designs operating systems.
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@Micromush You are kidding, right?
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@adli89@...

Not kidding. I'm a power user and use VMware to load other operating systems in VMs, Windows XP Pro, Ubuntu. After I upgraded Vista to Windows 7, then tried to use VMware, I ended up with no USB capabilities. Could not print invoices because printers use USB ports. Windows 7 has serious compatibility problems, just as Vista did when it came out. Until all bugs are fixed, I'll keep using Vista with VMware so that I can do some business.
  • Flagged
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@Micromush
should have tried Linux, not windoze.
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@Micromush

Not so fast one person does not dictate the entire market. I just finished a 97 machine deploy, all Windows 7 machines.
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@Micromush Power User?? Not from where I'm sitting! I've had NO problems in deploying Win7, and nobody I know has! Profound disappointment? What planet are you on? Sounds to me like you need some professional IT help!
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@Micromush - I disagree. Win7 isn't perfect by ANY means, but I've grown to love it more than OS X at this point... and it's rather better than Vista, which drove me to OS X to begin with. A shame Apple drive me away from it, but that's their loss.

Not to mention, this so-called "economy" is why sales are weak. Nobody has money and, adjusted for inflation, many jobs' pay has decreased since 1980.
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Look for some even cheaper laptops come 4Q!
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Its about cost
jscott418 27th Aug 2010
Let's face it. The fact PC's are slowing down has nothing to do with Windows 7 being bad. Its about archaic hardware that won't run it. Companies made the decision to ignore Vista and that only delayed the fact that hardware needs to be upgraded. But then the deep recession came and its still here! So until their is a budget for new hardware their is going to be Windows XP.
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@jscott418 Yeah, this sounds more like what's really going on! Archaic hardware is a more likely thing, but what're you calling archaic?
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@jscott418 - I don't agree. My work machine was upgraded to Win7. (AMD Athlon 4200 CPU with 4GB RAM, which is considered 'archaic'). Win7 runs faster, in some ways, than XP. Slower in some, but Win7 is certainly superior to Vista where it counts the most.
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Would be nice
becabill 30th Aug 2010
@jscott418 If we didn't all have to double our PC hardware to get pretty much the same performance and capabilities just to "upgrade" our OS.
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Intel Corp
dcolbert@... 27th Aug 2010
Continues to claim that a lack of skilled engineers in the domestic employee pool will result in the next big thing coming from overseas, not the U.S. Meanwhile Linux advocates continue to try and lay the blame for declining PC sales on Microsoft and Windows 7, but the fact remains the *current* big thing came from Cuppertino, California and along with products built on Google's mobile OS platform, they're an exploding segment of the industry in a time of stagnant traditional PC growth.

When IBM manufactured the original PC 5150 and IBM/XT they regarded them as low margin toys and ignored a market that became the architecture that the entire enterprise and corporate desktop is built on, today. It was the beginning of the end of 100 years of business machine dominance for IBM.

The only thing that looks different to me is that the cycle is accellerating.
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@dcolbert@... the only "lack" is due to pay rates, adjusted for inflation, being lower now than in 1980. There's no ROI for the industry any longer. Not for Americans and we have LOTS of unemployed skilled talent here in America.

Companies just want to pay b.s. wages and then wonder why people don't have money to spend, or to keep buying educational materials for jobs that won't be there (DUH)... or have time to raise their families, but I digress...

And if people read the TOS for cloud-based sites, they'd think twice. Even I have to support facebook over a lawsuit lobbed at them by a couple teens who were 'shocked' to see their photos advertising the company. RTFTOS, folks... they give themselves a free hand to your IP in return for your using the site for "free"...
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RE: Intel cuts outlook; Consumer PC demand weak
Philip Cohen Updated - 27th Aug 2010
Intel has no need to worry. John Donahoe (aka Peter Principle) is on the Board; he will have all the answers. Just look at how he is "turning around", and around, and around, eBay, in it's current spiral downwards! How did this incompetent, inarticulate, sociopath ever make a favourable impression on anyone? Sheesh.

Shill Bidding on eBay: Case Study #4
This latest study demonstrates eBay?s utter desperation for revenue; and, once again very effectively, eBay?s effective aiding and abetting of this criminal activity, at
http://forums.auctionbytes.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=23540
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Slumping PC sales? Ain't happening to Apple.
Davewrite Updated - 27th Aug 2010
Electronista on same Intel news:

"Intel warns of low summer PC sales

"Both Acer and Samsung are either known or believed to be lowering expectations for netbooks as customers either jump ship for the iPad or for an internally developed tablet"
"The slump could mute earlier gains for many of the top tier companies but won't necessarily affect all. Apple has continued with above-average growth and so far hasn't shown signs of slowing down in the summer"

----
only problem with the eletronista article is "or for an internally developed tablet" . What PC tablet is selling well?
NOTE: most analyst firms count Tablet PCs into Pc numbers but NOT iPads. (analyst firms sell their data to PC companies who use their data for bank loans, marketing etc. and the numbers are always skewed to show great PC numbers. NPD said they would count HP Slate running windows but NOT iPad. When HP bought Palm and wanted to load Web OS on the Slate instead of Windows NPD was asked whether they would count Slate running WebOS. NPD refused to answer! LOL) If they counted iPads as computers Apple numbers will even be higher as Apple is selling as many iPads as Macs.
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You do understand...
itpro_z 27th Aug 2010
@Davewrite

...that Macs also run on Intel chips? How about that Macs are a teacup in the ocean of worldwide sales? Sure, Apple sales are up, but when you are a tiny niche player even a small increase in units shipped looks huge when expressed as percentage growth.
@itpro_z

you say " you do understnad that Macs also run on Intel chips". Of course that's what I 'm pointing out: Intel sales slump does not equal Mac sales going down as sources say Mac sales are up. Intel slump is just for Intel Win Pcs.

As for mac marketshare, small or not, Apple sales number is going UP, win PCs are going Down.
Last year Apple was already making 35% of the worldwide PROFITS of worldwide personal computer sales even with it's small market share. Any growth will result in even bigger profits for Apple.

If you want to talk more about market share though Apple sells around the same number (or more) of iOS devices (iPhones, iPod touches, iPads) as all the netbooks put out by all the manufacturers and people are using them to replace netbooks and that has put a dent into netbook sales causing a slump in PC sales numbers.
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RE: Dave
itpro_z Updated - 28th Aug 2010
Dave, I do understand that Apple is very profitable at what they do, but they are still a small niche player in the PC market. Yes, they do very well with their consumer electronics, yet as a computer company they don't even register on the world wide market.

Your comparison of Apple's sales of phones and media players to netbooks is just plain silly. Netbooks are a completely different market. Yes, there is a bit of overlap, but the i devices are toys for content consumption, while netbooks are computers for both consumption and creation.

You might want to consider that with the economies of the world in serious decline those companies that sell expensive, luxury items are generally hit the hardest. Macs and i devices are fine pieces of equipment, but what do you get for the premium price beyond a fashion accessory?
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Just plain silly? Here, lol
Davewrite 29th Aug 2010
@itpro_z

you say :
"our comparison of Apple's sales of phones and media players to netbooks is just plain silly. Netbooks are a completely different market."

WIRED magazine May:

(Netbook sales...)
"It fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April ? collateral damage, according to Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad.?

Of course, looking at the graph you?ll notice a general decline in netbook sales over the course of 2009, so it?s possible that the downward trend simply carried over to 2010. However, corroborating the correlation between the introduction of the iPad and shrinkage in netbook sales, Huberty also cited a survey conducted by Morgan Stanley in March, which found that 44 percent of U.S. consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer."

---
that research was even BEFORE iPad sales took off , before iPad became available in more countries.
dudes, do some research before saying others are silly.
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@Davewrite Ummm...since when is a tablet a desktop PC?
Apple is going to be out of the PC business soon. This is evidenced by the fact that they never showed up at Macworld. They believe that tablets and smartphones are where the future lies, and they?re only half right. I expect the desktop and ALL forms of computing to pick up after personal economies improve! (I know I am!)

The fact that sales of all PC?s have declined is totally due to the deepening recession. Even in this, however, companies that are finding their equipment failing and their competition is heating up, they are upgrading to new stuff out of necessity! They?re not upgrading to Linux or Mac, they?re upgrading to Windows 7 in droves! Those that can still hold out with XP and Vista will wait as long as they can, BUT when asked, all will go to the new Windows, except for some servers running Linux. Why? Because the word is getting out between CTO?s that Windows 7 WORKS!

Like I said earlier I, nor none of the IT pros I know, have had much trouble in deploying Win 7, except on older systems, which need to be upgraded anyway. (A shop running Pentium III?s is stuck in last century, huh?)
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facts don't jive with you
Davewrite Updated - 29th Aug 2010
@barefoot1976

"when are tablet a desktop PC"
when did i say it was a DESKTOP, what i said was that analysts like NPD count tablets running windows as PCs but NOT iPads. You do know that there are tablets running windows for years already right? Look at my posts above where I quote articles saying many people are replacing netbooks with iPads.

"The fact that sales of all PC?s have declined is totally due to the deepening recession. "
that might be true but as I quoted from analysts doing checks, the 'deepening recession" is not affecting macs so much as their sales are increasing not decreasing.

As for Apple's not into macs anymore... are you serious? They just launched new macbooks, imacs, mac pros and mac minis.. (several of them getting Editor's choice from PC world, Computer shopper etc)
As for Macworld, did you ever read Apple's reasoning before you comment? Apple says they're not taking part because : 1) people expect Apple to announce new products at Macworld which conflicts with their own product schedules (Macworld is a privately run fair and not run by Apple) and 2) Apple gets many times Macworld's audience EVERY WEEK through their chain of Apple stores now (I think the number was 50 macworlds a week or something like that). Apple also doesn't take part in CES or Mobile World Congress so does it mean Apple is not interested in consumer electronics or mobile phones?

Mac sales not important or going down?
Fortune Magazine Aug:
"At 35%, Mac shipment growth in June easily exceeded the market's growth rate of 20.9%.
Mac shipments grew 31.4% in the home market, topping the market's growth rate of 25.2%.
At 49.8%, the Mac's growth in business was three times higher than the market's 15.7%.
Mac shipments in government grew 200%, sixteen times faster than the market's 12.1%."

---
See Mac sales going up. Also wouldn't you think your 'recession' theory would affect a 'premium' high class brand like Apple more than low cost pc producers? Although Mac still makes up a small percentage of world pc sales, from Apple's perspective Mac sales are booming. How many business you have where you sales grow 25-30% every quarter?
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Just a thought...
itpro_z 27th Aug 2010
...but I have to wonder if companies are rolling back their projections due to massive deficit spending by pretty much every Western government, economies that are circling the drain, and various signs of imminent stock market collapse?

Nah, must be my imagination.
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The day of consumer shelling out big bucks for PC is toast in this economy. Relying on Back-to_School sales are a joke at best. Most back to school needs can be done with any PC I a can pick up at an yard sale.
Both AMD and Intel upstream manufactures need to press value over paying premimum for prefomace.
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@Richard B
rebelxhardcore 27th Aug 2010
AMD is value for performance, Intel isn't.
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@Richard B, rebelxhardcore
Joe_Raby 28th Aug 2010
Yes, AMD is where consumers are getting the best bang for the buck.

A survey of AMD's outlook should be compared to Intel's. Big companies like HP and Toshiba are pushing AMD in the mainstream segment. Intel doesn't have anything in the same pricing space that's even close to the same value, and their graphics are just a joke.

I see sales of laptops for Best Buy and Future Shop all the time and they're always AMD-based systems. It's not always just price, but also partner marketing. Intel is too big to market effectively.

Where Intel is pushing the Atom for low-cost computing, consumers are pushing back. Consumers aren't impressed with the Atom platform anymore, now with sub-$500 full-featured computers having more than double the performance. The small-screen netbook crave seems to have almost completely died too. The Atom is lackluster with HD video, and Ion systems are weighing in at the same price as AMD systems with better CPU performance.

Intel needs to offer high-end CPU features at scaled back speeds to compete with AMD. I'd like to see a modern Intel quad-core CPU at sub-$120 prices, but it'll likely never happen and AMD will continue to thrive in the mainstream space.

BTW: The new Intel HD Graphics ingrated CPU graphics is a total non-event. It's the same X4500HD crap all over again, but now just in the CPU. I'm anxious to see what kind of capabilities AMD brings to their embedded CPU graphics. DX11 support is slated to be a set goal, so it'll be at least Radeon 5000-based, which is awesome for SFF machines.
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RE: Intel cuts outlook; Consumer PC demand weak
jackson1984-24316069205748857739440257893812 10th Oct
Will you be publishing your own posts? Or getting them reebok jerseys from more or less just about every other sources?
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RE: Intel cuts outlook; Consumer PC demand weak
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
essentially must say you generate a array of wonderful things and really will guide a handful of possibilities to generate black ugg in soon just when each day or two.

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