iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

Summary: A new report about tablet PC architectures reveals that iOS will be the definite leader for the next few years, but competition will steadily increase.

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Many analysts and surveys predict that Android will significantly catch up to iOS -- at least on the tablet market share -- by 2012.

However, a new report about tablet PC architectures from market research and consulting firm DisplaySearch hypothesizes that tablets running Android 3.0 and higher won't surpass iOS until at least after 2017. Actually, it could be much later than that as the report only covers up until six years from now, and iOS still accounts for a larger piece of the number of shipments annually through then.

As pictured in the graph below, the NPD Group-owned research team predicts that global tablet shipments are expected to reach nearly 330 million units by 2017 -- up from less than 60 million units in 2011

By comparison, iSuppli predicted that we’ll see 275.3 million media tablets units in 2015, and In-Stat only expects 250 million tablets shipped in 2017.

Additionally, DisplaySearch reports that shipments of tablet PCs with ARM processors are expected to grow 211 percent in 2011 to 59.9 million units, but those with x86 processors (usually found in laptops and netbooks) won't grow much until 2013.

That will have an effect on tablets because as more brands will challenge Apple in the tablet PC market, they are also more likely to experiment with the other platforms available to them in the market. But PC brands in general, according to DisplaySearch, will mostly run to Windows and x86 platforms with a minority reaching out to ARM processors.

In turn, the choice that tablet manufacturers make will have a significant impact on the apps supported on those tablets as consumers care more about what they can do with their mobile devices in the end than anything else.

[Graph via DisplaySearch]

Related:

Topics: Tablets, Hardware, Laptops, Mobility

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132 comments
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  • As recent history shows, most of these prognosises are useless, so

    ... we have to wait a year from now to see whether this DisplaySearch graph will be true or not -- in an approximation, at least.
    DDERSSS
    • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

      @DeRSSS
      +1
      Ram U
      • We can already make that call.

        @Rama.NET

        Based on this plot, Apple's holiday quarter will drop by 10% over last quater (yea right) to 10 million units and Android will ship 200% more units than what sold in the previous 3 quarters. They show Android shipping 11,000,000 units in the holiday quarter.

        Can you get Vegas odds someplace to take a bet they are already not right?
        Bruizer
      • Agree; these predictions, especially for this year, are totally insane

        @Bruizer: ... these people totally ignore basic facts of reality and make up figures out of the blue.
        DDERSSS
      • Bruizer: I agree

        There is no reason to believe that Android tablets will ever sell in any substantial numbers. Right now, they ship in relatively substantial numbers but they aren't selling at all. Every single statistic that is usage based shows that the iPad has 95% marketshare.
        toddybottom
      • I agree

        @DeRSSS

        It's not like these people do this for a living or anything, just a bunch of inexperienced hacks.
        William Farrell
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom

        According to the Android Developers resources, 1.8% of the Android devices connecting to the Android market in a 14 day period ending October 3rd, were running Honeycomb. According to Google 190 million devices connected to the market over the same period. That means if you only count Honeycomb, that's 3.4 million devices which have only been available from between 3-6 months. That doesn't include tablets that have released with Froyo. NPD is setting very low expectations for Android tablets, which isn't surprising. They also grossly underestimated Android on phones over and over again for 2 years running.
        tkejlboom
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @Bruiser The Asus Transformer has been sold to the edge of production for months, and the Transformer 2 (Android 4.0) is due out mid November. It's quite possible that that tablet alone will break 11M units.
        daengbo
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom
        Why do you always have that attitude towards Android? It has statistically been figured by Google itself that there are 6 million Android Tablets out there; Here, I'll provide references from 2 major online magazines.

        http://thisismynext.com/2011/10/19/andy-rubin-6-million-android-tablets-out-there/
        http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/19/googles-andy-rubin-six-million-android-based-tablets-out-the/

        Now, unless Apple has sold 120 MILLION iPad's, that isn't 5 percent market share. It's closer to 15%-20%. After 10 months, with 1st gen tablets with no chance to work out the kinks. Technically, it would be more accurate to compare 1st gen Android tablets only to either iPad or iPad 2, as comparing it to both iPad and iPad 2 would be giving Apple TWICE the timeframe and wouldn't really give an accurate estimation. However, I won't spend my time working that out.

        My point is, Android does have a very good chance, especially with Ice Cream Sandwich. There is no possible way that you can honestly ignore the implications of that OS - unified phone and tablet operating systems. And DON'T say that it won't help things because carriers/manufacturers won't support it, because HTC, Sony Ericsson, ASUS, Motorola, Samsung and others have either confirmed the update for their devices or said the update is planned for as many devices as they can get it to work for.

        Also, tablet apps have been steadily increasing lately. I notice these things, as I own an Android Tablet (ASUS Eee Pad Transformer, plan to get the Prime). Almost EVERY new app that comes out and does well is optimized for tablets, and many app developers have been optimizing their apps for tablets; Netflix (now compatible with ALL Honeycomb tablets), ASTRO, Asteroid Defense HD, Reckless Getaway, Ground Effect Pro XHD (3D, as well) SlingPlayer for Tablets, Sentinel 3: Homeworld, Virtual City, Star Blitz, and many other apps that I won't list.

        Anyway, Android does have a chance. Just give it at some time before entirely discounting it.
        Walkop
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @Walkop [i]Technically, it would be more accurate to compare 1st gen Android tablets only to either iPad or iPad 2, as comparing it to both iPad and iPad 2 would be giving Apple TWICE the timeframe and wouldn't really give an accurate estimation.[/i]
        Really, there were no Android based tablets on the market in 2010? Sure, the big names might not have had their devices out but there were plenty of cheap crap devices out there when the iPad was first getting started. Android fans are more than happy to use those units in stats, why should we only compare to the iPad or iPad 2 if we are including those? Since there are what 20 models of Android phones for everyone iPhone offered should we only use one because it gives Android 20 times the production potential? I don't think so but it goes to show the hypocrisy. Android will gain share no doubt but my point is that you can't pick and choose when you want to include everything and when you don't want to.
        non-biased
    • What is your guess?

      @DeRSSS
      In your opinion, will Android tablets steal significant marketshare from Apple in the next 5 years?

      If so, why do you believe Android tablets will be so successful?
      toddybottom
      • You are trolling, so it is useless to answer

        @toddybottom
        DDERSSS
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom

        Same reason Android is now the leader in smart phones - Apple is a control freak, and it took well less than 5 years for Android phones to top iOS phones in market share.
        Regulator1956
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom It's simple. Different people have different needs and if you think that one device fits all then you're highly mistaken.
        smangal
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom Well Toddy, according to you, and your past postings, "No one will make a competitive tablet until 2020. Until then Apple will dominate. It's a sick market. We all lose."

        And everyone here knows your nothing but a troll, who's unhappy because he can't afford to buy an Ipad, but yes, eventually Android tablets will catch up and may even pass Apple's Ipad success. This doesn't mean its a bad thing. Just like right now its not a bad thing that the Ipad's are doing so well, because it makes other companies strive to be better.

        And in answer to your above post, how can you claim that there are no Android tablets selling, only shipping? Where are your suppossed links to prove this? What support do you give to make such an outcry????
        Rapid Rec
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom
        Because the iPad is a closed platform.
        As tablets replace desktops, people will want the freedom to do what they want, how they want on THEIR computer.

        When Apple dominated the PC market with Mac's etc, they lost their way by insisting on the same sort of control of the hardware that they now do with iPads.
        The iPad however is even more onerous as they tell you what software you can have as well.
        Android will be to the iPad what Windows and the IBM PC where to the Mac.
        Goresh
      • At Least I Call Mine a "Guess" Rather than a "Projection"

        @toddybottom <br>I admit that my guess would be more significant growth for Android tablets compared to iPad than they are projecting. However, it's basically just that, a guess. I don't really know what will happen, and neither do they.

        Edit: I forgot to mention Windows 8, but that's because I refuse to even guess at how successful an operating system that has yet to see the light of day will be.
        CFWhitman
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @toddybottom Android tablets will be successful precisely for the reasons Android phones have been. That's lower prices, more options, multiple vendors, better value.

        Price is significant, particularly as the market for tablets grows. And yes, many top tier companies screwed the tablet numbers last year by copying Apple. The problem with that is that tablets are still considered something that should cost less than PCs. Every buyer understands this.

        Including Apple. Their lowest price laptop costs $1000, the iPad starts at $500. Great, if you're an Apple customer. But the average price paid for Windows PC laptops is about $520 in the US, or $480 for desktops (Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore, so not an issue for them). So a tablet outside of the Apple world ought to start at roughly half that, around $300. That's the same dynamic Apple's using.

        But really might blow Android tablets through the roof are other sales models... like B&N and now Amazon. Sure, and Apple fanboi might complain they're not real Android tablets, but they are. The only thing that's really important to the Android market -- does it run Android app? That's the lock-in, the kind of thing Apple has used to keep iOS sales high. The app market ultimatedly drives the hardware market. And some pundits are betting, if they're not supply-limited, Amazon alone could outsell the iPad in 4Q2011.
        Hazydave
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @Regulator1956 Dreaming much? Android took the lead in smart phone market share due to the number of devices offered across the price range. Android has taken the lead because of the cheap low end devices. Remove all the cheap crap devices and lets look at the numbers again. Not knocking Android as it's a the better choice for some but let's be honest about the stats.
        non-biased
      • RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

        @dave@... [i]The problem with that is that tablets are still considered something that should cost less than PCs. Every buyer understands this.[/i]
        Really, you somehow know that every buyer out their believes a tablet should cost less?

        [i]Including Apple. Their lowest price laptop costs $1000, the iPad starts at $500. Great, if you're an Apple customer. But the average price paid for Windows PC laptops is about $520 in the US, or $480 for desktops (Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore, so not an issue for them). So a tablet outside of the Apple world ought to start at roughly half that, around $300. That's the same dynamic Apple's using.[/i]
        Considering the iPad sales they are obviously selling tons to Win PC user yet they don't cost less, how do you explain that? Of all the people I know that have purchased iPads (myself included) only two were already Mac users. Of those people 5 have decided to buy a Mac after getting the iPad. BTW, what makes you think Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore?
        non-biased