Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)

By | October 24, 2011, 10:33am PDT

Summary: A new report about tablet PC architectures reveals that iOS will be the definite leader for the next few years, but competition will steadily increase.

Many analysts and surveys predict that Android will significantly catch up to iOS – at least on the tablet market share — by 2012.

However, a new report about tablet PC architectures from market research and consulting firm DisplaySearch hypothesizes that tablets running Android 3.0 and higher won’t surpass iOS until at least after 2017. Actually, it could be much later than that as the report only covers up until six years from now, and iOS still accounts for a larger piece of the number of shipments annually through then.

As pictured in the graph below, the NPD Group-owned research team predicts that global tablet shipments are expected to reach nearly 330 million units by 2017 — up from less than 60 million units in 2011

By comparison, iSuppli predicted that we’ll see 275.3 million media tablets units in 2015, and In-Stat only expects 250 million tablets shipped in 2017.

Additionally, DisplaySearch reports that shipments of tablet PCs with ARM processors are expected to grow 211 percent in 2011 to 59.9 million units, but those with x86 processors (usually found in laptops and netbooks) won’t grow much until 2013.

That will have an effect on tablets because as more brands will challenge Apple in the tablet PC market, they are also more likely to experiment with the other platforms available to them in the market. But PC brands in general, according to DisplaySearch, will mostly run to Windows and x86 platforms with a minority reaching out to ARM processors.

In turn, the choice that tablet manufacturers make will have a significant impact on the apps supported on those tablets as consumers care more about what they can do with their mobile devices in the end than anything else.

[Graph via DisplaySearch]

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Rachel King is a staff writer for ZDNet based in San Francisco.

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Rachel King

Rachel King has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted in this blog.

Biography

Rachel King

Rachel King is a staff writer for CBS Interactive in San Francisco. Before serving as a contributing editor at ZDNet in New York City for two years, she previously worked for The Business Insider, FastCompany.com, CNN's San Francisco bureau and the U.S. Department of State. Rachel has also written for MainStreet.com, Irish America Magazine and the New York Daily News, among others. Rachel has a B.A. in Mass Communications and History from the University of California, Berkeley and a M.S. in Journalism from Columbia University, where she served as art director for the student magazine, Plated.

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RE: iOS will dominate other tablet platforms until at least 2017 (report)
non-biased 28th Oct
@dave@... The problem with that is that tablets are still considered something that should cost less than PCs. Every buyer understands this.
Really, you somehow know that every buyer out their believes a tablet should cost less?

Including Apple. Their lowest price laptop costs $1000, the iPad starts at $500. Great, if you're an Apple customer. But the average price paid for Windows PC laptops is about $520 in the US, or $480 for desktops (Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore, so not an issue for them). So a tablet outside of the Apple world ought to start at roughly half that, around $300. That's the same dynamic Apple's using.
Considering the iPad sales they are obviously selling tons to Win PC user yet they don't cost less, how do you explain that? Of all the people I know that have purchased iPads (myself included) only two were already Mac users. Of those people 5 have decided to buy a Mac after getting the iPad. BTW, what makes you think Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore?
... we have to wait a year from now to see whether this DisplaySearch graph will be true or not -- in an approximation, at least.
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@Rama.NET

Based on this plot, Apple's holiday quarter will drop by 10% over last quater (yea right) to 10 million units and Android will ship 200% more units than what sold in the previous 3 quarters. They show Android shipping 11,000,000 units in the holiday quarter.

Can you get Vegas odds someplace to take a bet they are already not right?
@Bruizer: ... these people totally ignore basic facts of reality and make up figures out of the blue.
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Bruizer: I agree
toddybottom 24th Oct
There is no reason to believe that Android tablets will ever sell in any substantial numbers. Right now, they ship in relatively substantial numbers but they aren't selling at all. Every single statistic that is usage based shows that the iPad has 95% marketshare.
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I agree
William Farrell 24th Oct
@DeRSSS

It's not like these people do this for a living or anything, just a bunch of inexperienced hacks.
@toddybottom

According to the Android Developers resources, 1.8% of the Android devices connecting to the Android market in a 14 day period ending October 3rd, were running Honeycomb. According to Google 190 million devices connected to the market over the same period. That means if you only count Honeycomb, that's 3.4 million devices which have only been available from between 3-6 months. That doesn't include tablets that have released with Froyo. NPD is setting very low expectations for Android tablets, which isn't surprising. They also grossly underestimated Android on phones over and over again for 2 years running.
@Bruiser The Asus Transformer has been sold to the edge of production for months, and the Transformer 2 (Android 4.0) is due out mid November. It's quite possible that that tablet alone will break 11M units.
@toddybottom
Why do you always have that attitude towards Android? It has statistically been figured by Google itself that there are 6 million Android Tablets out there; Here, I'll provide references from 2 major online magazines.

http://thisismynext.com/2011/10/19/andy-rubin-6-million-android-tablets-out-there/
http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/19/googles-andy-rubin-six-million-android-based-tablets-out-the/

Now, unless Apple has sold 120 MILLION iPad's, that isn't 5 percent market share. It's closer to 15%-20%. After 10 months, with 1st gen tablets with no chance to work out the kinks. Technically, it would be more accurate to compare 1st gen Android tablets only to either iPad or iPad 2, as comparing it to both iPad and iPad 2 would be giving Apple TWICE the timeframe and wouldn't really give an accurate estimation. However, I won't spend my time working that out.

My point is, Android does have a very good chance, especially with Ice Cream Sandwich. There is no possible way that you can honestly ignore the implications of that OS - unified phone and tablet operating systems. And DON'T say that it won't help things because carriers/manufacturers won't support it, because HTC, Sony Ericsson, ASUS, Motorola, Samsung and others have either confirmed the update for their devices or said the update is planned for as many devices as they can get it to work for.

Also, tablet apps have been steadily increasing lately. I notice these things, as I own an Android Tablet (ASUS Eee Pad Transformer, plan to get the Prime). Almost EVERY new app that comes out and does well is optimized for tablets, and many app developers have been optimizing their apps for tablets; Netflix (now compatible with ALL Honeycomb tablets), ASTRO, Asteroid Defense HD, Reckless Getaway, Ground Effect Pro XHD (3D, as well) SlingPlayer for Tablets, Sentinel 3: Homeworld, Virtual City, Star Blitz, and many other apps that I won't list.

Anyway, Android does have a chance. Just give it at some time before entirely discounting it.
@Walkop Technically, it would be more accurate to compare 1st gen Android tablets only to either iPad or iPad 2, as comparing it to both iPad and iPad 2 would be giving Apple TWICE the timeframe and wouldn't really give an accurate estimation.
Really, there were no Android based tablets on the market in 2010? Sure, the big names might not have had their devices out but there were plenty of cheap crap devices out there when the iPad was first getting started. Android fans are more than happy to use those units in stats, why should we only compare to the iPad or iPad 2 if we are including those? Since there are what 20 models of Android phones for everyone iPhone offered should we only use one because it gives Android 20 times the production potential? I don't think so but it goes to show the hypocrisy. Android will gain share no doubt but my point is that you can't pick and choose when you want to include everything and when you don't want to.
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What is your guess?
toddybottom 24th Oct
@DeRSSS
In your opinion, will Android tablets steal significant marketshare from Apple in the next 5 years?

If so, why do you believe Android tablets will be so successful?
@toddybottom
@toddybottom

Same reason Android is now the leader in smart phones - Apple is a control freak, and it took well less than 5 years for Android phones to top iOS phones in market share.
@toddybottom It's simple. Different people have different needs and if you think that one device fits all then you're highly mistaken.
@toddybottom Well Toddy, according to you, and your past postings, "No one will make a competitive tablet until 2020. Until then Apple will dominate. It's a sick market. We all lose."

And everyone here knows your nothing but a troll, who's unhappy because he can't afford to buy an Ipad, but yes, eventually Android tablets will catch up and may even pass Apple's Ipad success. This doesn't mean its a bad thing. Just like right now its not a bad thing that the Ipad's are doing so well, because it makes other companies strive to be better.

And in answer to your above post, how can you claim that there are no Android tablets selling, only shipping? Where are your suppossed links to prove this? What support do you give to make such an outcry????
@toddybottom
Because the iPad is a closed platform.
As tablets replace desktops, people will want the freedom to do what they want, how they want on THEIR computer.

When Apple dominated the PC market with Mac's etc, they lost their way by insisting on the same sort of control of the hardware that they now do with iPads.
The iPad however is even more onerous as they tell you what software you can have as well.
Android will be to the iPad what Windows and the IBM PC where to the Mac.
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@toddybottom
I admit that my guess would be more significant growth for Android tablets compared to iPad than they are projecting. However, it's basically just that, a guess. I don't really know what will happen, and neither do they.

Edit: I forgot to mention Windows 8, but that's because I refuse to even guess at how successful an operating system that has yet to see the light of day will be.
@toddybottom Android tablets will be successful precisely for the reasons Android phones have been. That's lower prices, more options, multiple vendors, better value.

Price is significant, particularly as the market for tablets grows. And yes, many top tier companies screwed the tablet numbers last year by copying Apple. The problem with that is that tablets are still considered something that should cost less than PCs. Every buyer understands this.

Including Apple. Their lowest price laptop costs $1000, the iPad starts at $500. Great, if you're an Apple customer. But the average price paid for Windows PC laptops is about $520 in the US, or $480 for desktops (Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore, so not an issue for them). So a tablet outside of the Apple world ought to start at roughly half that, around $300. That's the same dynamic Apple's using.

But really might blow Android tablets through the roof are other sales models... like B&N and now Amazon. Sure, and Apple fanboi might complain they're not real Android tablets, but they are. The only thing that's really important to the Android market -- does it run Android app? That's the lock-in, the kind of thing Apple has used to keep iOS sales high. The app market ultimatedly drives the hardware market. And some pundits are betting, if they're not supply-limited, Amazon alone could outsell the iPad in 4Q2011.
@Regulator1956 Dreaming much? Android took the lead in smart phone market share due to the number of devices offered across the price range. Android has taken the lead because of the cheap low end devices. Remove all the cheap crap devices and lets look at the numbers again. Not knocking Android as it's a the better choice for some but let's be honest about the stats.
@dave@... The problem with that is that tablets are still considered something that should cost less than PCs. Every buyer understands this.
Really, you somehow know that every buyer out their believes a tablet should cost less?

Including Apple. Their lowest price laptop costs $1000, the iPad starts at $500. Great, if you're an Apple customer. But the average price paid for Windows PC laptops is about $520 in the US, or $480 for desktops (Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore, so not an issue for them). So a tablet outside of the Apple world ought to start at roughly half that, around $300. That's the same dynamic Apple's using.
Considering the iPad sales they are obviously selling tons to Win PC user yet they don't cost less, how do you explain that? Of all the people I know that have purchased iPads (myself included) only two were already Mac users. Of those people 5 have decided to buy a Mac after getting the iPad. BTW, what makes you think Apple doesn't sell a real desktop anymore?
@DeRSSS
The enterprise alone will give Windows 8 the advantage as soon as next year especially as they start to realize that the iPad is not enterprise-worthy, so I am unsure how these numbers came about. In my organization, a college of thousands of employees, after a few people got the iPad, now they want to use it for thing such as printing, taking notes in meetings so they can access those notes on their network PC, install/use Microsoft Office Suite and Adobe CS suite on it, and the list continues. We in IT of course burst out laughing that someone did not set the expectations when handing these "toys" to end users. Now they are barking at us to make it work. Not gonna happen. These are the sort of things enterprises demand and only Win8 can deliver that and end users are also starting to realize the same thing, which also means the same thing in that area as well. All of this simply points to one thing; Win8 tablets will dominate as soon as they drop, which also means this forrecast is totally nonsense.
@techiegz@...
You might care to review the latest Economist technology section which suggests that, since the flow of technology is moving from the consumer to the enterprise, reversing a long trend, the iPad will continue to dominate for many years. The point of a tablet is not to emulate a full desktop but to do what a desktop does more elegantly and simply. The stunning success of Isaacson's biography will only fuel the dominance of iOS--which is perhaps not the best of reasons but reasons come in many forms. As a result, I think your prognosis is about as jaded as your spelling of "forrecast." It's taken healthy IT budgets to maintain complicated, non-robust systems. When the bean counters realize how robust iOS (and similar) tablets and phones are, they will show most traditional IT types the door. Time to think different, boys.
@techiegz@...
Funny... You will not be able to work at my comPany. I have been using my iPad and iPad 2 on our network for the last two years. All you have to is install Citrix. With Citrix you can access your desk top and run any program and even print. So it can be done if you research. My IT group said the samething and as loud as they screamed it could not be done. They were very Embarrassed when I presented to the board that it could be done and even cheaper than laptop they were buying. Windows will never be a player in tablets and cell phones. I have switched my company from BB , Driods and now iPhone. We will not look back. As much IT dept cry that Apple will not work, all you can do is prove them wrong. We have used iPads and we will be issue 16 more in few weeks.
@techiegz@...
The enterprise still has some way to go with Win 7.
Do not expect them to start using Win 8 until 2013.
They are NOT the first ones to jump on to the very newest of systems; they want to see how it will perform and fit in with their systems first.
@DeRSSS

Since we are all guessing, here's mine.

The mobile market, tablet and phones will resemble the desktop market in a few years. iOS will have shrunk to its usual 5-10%. Android will be where Linux always is - around 1% and Win 8/9 will be running on 90%.

That's a lot more likely than Apple's antiquated iOS, chunky, heavy designs and their ancient UI taking over the world wink
@tonymcs@ Fanboys like you will be MSFT's undoing. Get back to reality with you. You sound as bad as a linux zealot pining of the "year of linux" on the desktop. Face it, MSFT missed the boat on this one and for Android, we really don't have solid sell through numbers since the Android OEMs are stuffing the channel and then claiming "shipped" numbers instead of sales to the end user.
@DeRSSS
I think the only reason for the extended period is to be able to add Microsoft to the graph as well. Without that, MS will not even feature...

...just donned my flameproof undies wink
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I think it's even worse than that
vulpine@... 25th Oct
@DeRSSS: This chart takes no account of how the Kindle Fire is using a version of Android, nor does it consider the reports of Samsung and HTC both looking for Android alternatives due to Google's purchase of Motorola Mobile.

So, will Android have a sharp rise, merely to fade again into the pack, or will it show steady growth to eventually surpass iOS? Personally, I think the former is the more logical projection. Just as Android made a huge leap to take a momentary dominant role in smart phones, I think the tablet market will follow a similar path as long as these tablets manage to price themselves significantly below Apple's. However, with the intimations of an Android split coming within the next couple years, Android itself will drop to a more balanced market level, competing not only with iOS but WebOS, Bada and Windows as well as others that may spawn over this next decade. No, unlike the desktop OS wars, this looks to be a more competitive, multi-OS environment which may eventually culminate into an overall OS that features the best aspects of each of them.

Who will be dominant until then? Nobody really knows. We can only guess.
The guy who created this graph should be given some sort of 'genius' award.

iOS will maintain the 10 percent share, Android will end up in trash and the remaining will be owned by Win 8 or Win 9 in 2017.
@owlnet

The Everly Brothers made a great song for you.

All I Have to Do Is Dream
@Alan Smithie

you had to say that huh! now I'm singing it while reading this blog lol
this is all really insanity. this whole tablet market is only a couple of years old in the first place. and now they are predicting market dominance for 6 years. at the rate of fast growing technologies, who knows what will happen next
@derrek.kim@...I agree. If ICS really ties all things Android together there could be substantial Android growth in the next 6 years. But at the same time iOS will be tough to beat for the non-techie crowd, the majority of people.
@chevere

You agree such predictions are useless and then you make an equally absurd prediction? If you aggregate all Android devices, including phones, then the market has already spoken, Android took the lead six months ago.
@tkejlboom@... You cannot be serious? If combine the iOS marketshare for iPhones, iPod Touches and iPads and compare it with all Android devices, iOS still has a huge lead.
@owlnet Here is why they are wrong. Basically, iOS, Android and Windows 8 will give a pretty good tablet experience. People talk about apps and the good ecosystem of iOS. And its not bad, not bad at all, but here is what iOS doesn't have: Corp. development. I don't mean they won't be in corporations, but that very very few companies build their software for iOS to start with. They build their applications primarily for Windows.

***** all you want, but that is a fact. And when a company spends 3-4 million dollars on an application to manage their warehouse and link with their front end office, they want it to run on a lot of things. Enter Windows 8, the touch-first tablet OS that already will run you're company's 3+ million dollar software as well as Angry Birds and Facebook.

Its all about numbers. No amount of tablet savings, even 30k units, can make up for rebuilding an application that costs millions of dollars on a second platform. But, but, but what about the web? Despite all the hype about the web, most companies run their internal applications on good-ol-fashioned Windows. Windows sales are up as is Office 2010, well over last year.

Then what about all that software the company already owns and uses, Peoplesoft, Corel, Media software? Most of these are site licenses that can be used on any machine the company owns, and almost all this software runs on Windows. Yes, even most video production is done on Windows. Mac people hate to hear that, but its true. I don't think Windows is better, I'm just stating a fact.

No, I think iOS will not go away in any form, but recall that when Windows 3.1 came out, Apple was "the operating system for consumers." A few years later they fired Steve Jobs and were doing anything they could to stay afloat. Because, cool doesn't beat bottom line.
@A Gray

So many miss this and go with feel good nonsense. Microsoft shot themselves in the foot with vista but came back strong with win7. They will be tough to shoulder out of the corporate market.

Having said that Google is playing a smart game with their open source approach. They are letting others do a lot of the development for them on thousands of different devices and it isnt limited to smartphones and tablets by any means.

Android is the wild card in this IMHO and like you said I think Apple is repeating history with the walled garden model that will almost certainly relegate them to the 5% market share they had in the desktop arena in a very short time.
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Your facts are opinions;
vulpine@... 25th Oct
@A Gray: I can tell you that several major corporations, including several of the biggest banks in the world, are already developing their own software for iOS devices and quite honestly use off-the-shelf software for Windows.

Much of the capability you describe in paragraph 2 is already available for todays' tablets, including iOS tablets; so they really don't need to spend millions of dollars to create private apps unless they simply want a more focused environment.

Of course, paragraph 3 totally ignores the already-existing capability to access Windows desktops with available tablets, eliminating again the need to spend your millions of dollars to develop separate versions of existing apps. Of course, those companies do have a tendency to update their apps anyway because as technology advances the software has to advance--or the company stagnates.

So, what about all that software the enterprise uses? Every year or so they have to decide whether to update or replace. Every year or so they have to compare the different apps to new ones to determine which is more cost-effective. Windows, in particular, has proven to be very costly--corporate IT divisions the single most expensive budgetary unit; anything at all to change that environment could work to reduce cost and improve efficiency.

You're right, it's all about numbers; and Apple proved 15 years ago that the current environment is far from the most efficient. Changes have been made since then, but interestingly, the biggest changes are only just beginning to appear as the enterprise begins to let other operating systems into their networks.

Why spend $300 per copy of Microsoft Office when you can get most of that same capability for less than $60 per copy elsewhere with almost perfect compatibility? Why spend $200, $300, maybe even $400 per copy of an operating system when you can get the same capability from an OS at 10% of that price? Why? Because the hardware that supports that expensive software costs less to replace. That excuse simply doesn't hold water any more. Sure, you can buy a generic PC for about $500 that will service the company for a couple years; but how much desktop support do you have to provide? How often do you have to replace that machine with one that is little, if any, better? The corporate average for PC replacement is 3 years; I know examples where PCs needed replacing in as little as 1 year within a corporate environment.

So really, where does the cost of ownership balance the return on investment? Which platforms are really more efficient? Tablets offer something the enterprise hasn't had since pen-and-paper days--the ability to take your data with you as you move through the office/plant floor.
I think you will find android is going to eat into ipad sales quicker than that as the ipad has too many shortcomings in terms of connectivity and flexibility of media. Android is much more customer friendly.
@Alan Smithie
I feel you may be missing who the real customers for tablets are if you believe Android is more customer friendly...
@zzrwood

I own an Ipad2 (which I did not pay for thankfully) and own an android phone, believe me android is far more flexible.
@Alan Smithie: ... they want 'usability.' You look at the return rate of Android phones and the #1 biggest complaint has to do with the user simply losing control of the device because they don't know how to control it. They want a device that works, works right, works easily and simply does not need hand-holding to use it. Android doesn't offer that. Android is Windows for the smart phone--offering huge flexibility but needing constant maintenance for stability.
@Alan Smithie Flexible is not friendlier. Yes android can do alot more things that iOS restricts and for techies like myself, that is great. But for the main audience (non techies) iOS is alot more friendlier, which is the whole idea of apples closed garden approach (Lock it down so tight/simple that a child can use it in their sleep).
@Frenz9

Apples lock down is not about keeping the kiddies away from the controls, its about itunes store and app store.
2017 Windows '8' Really? Does the report assume Microsoft is going to die by 2012.
@g@... Specifically tablets.
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I predict that you will endup with two main tablet OSes. iOS and ARM based Windows 8. Windows 8 will be the more "open" of the platforms with more standard port options (USB/HDMI) and iOS will be the more controlled and stable of the platforms.

Android, lacking customer focus and basic usability, will go the way of Linux on the desktop.
@Bruizer
totally agreed. Microsoft is always good at defining HAL, which Google misses badly and thus there are lot of issues between various Androids. If they could integrate their ARM tablets with all types of phones including feature, walled smartphones and so called open smart phones, that would be really awesome and pull majority of enterprise segment to go for it. period.
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My prediction
toddybottom 24th Oct
iPad currently has 95% of the tablet market (really, it is more of an iPad market) and this will continue for the next 20 years.

We need real choice. We don't have real choice. The market is sick. We all lose.

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