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Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead

By | May 19, 2010, 6:38am PDT

Summary: IDC and Gartner’s smartphone market share statistics detail a rough road ahead for Microsoft’s smartphone ambitions. Windows Mobile is dying and Windows Phone 7 is still on the tarmac.

IDC and Gartner’s smartphone market share statistics detail a rough road ahead for Microsoft’s smartphone ambitions.

As Matthew Miller noted, Google’s Android operating system put the big hurt on Microsoft’s Windows Mobile platform. The news isn’t that surprising when you consider that Windows Mobile is basically a dead-end. It’s not compatible with Windows Phone 7, which will be Microsoft’s mobile OS of record in the fourth quarter. Why would you buy a Windows Mobile device now?

So let’s play this out.

Here’s Gartner’s market share standings today:


IDC’s data is roughly the same.

Next quarter it will just get worse. As Windows Mobile plays out the string, Microsoft will transition to Windows Phone 7, a new operating system that will be starting from scratch.

As I noted before, Windows Phone 7 would be much more promising if it came out sooner. Windows Phone 7 devices won’t land until the fourth quarter. By then the Android army will be bigger, a new iPhone will be rolling and Research in Motion will have new devices.

Simply put, Microsoft’s prospects in smartphones look challenging to say the least.

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Topics

Microsoft Windows Mobile, Mobile, Smart Phone, Microsoft Corp., Microsoft Windows, Smart Phones, Handhelds, Cellular Phones, Mobile Operating Systems, Operating Systems, Software, Consumer Electronics, Personal Technology, Hardware, Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

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Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
jackson1984-24316069205748857739440257893812 11th Oct
Hey I assumed this was an remarkably intriguing publish a lot of many thanks for pondering of it. You appear mulberry purses to be to become a really seasoned author.
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but they have the potential to do in the next 3 years what iphone did
Johnny Vegas 19th May 2010
in the last 3 years. They seem to have finally cracked the ux issue and out designed apple. all the iphone/android phones have the same shoddy old ux. and they have a much stronger base os to build on now so i would expect to see WP make great leaps quickly like silverlight has. Remember how little time has passed since SL2 when flash still had numerous advantages over it. Now SL4 is out and its better than flash in every way and now instead of rapidly closing the gap with flash theyre rapidly widening the gap of advantages over flash. I predict the same trajectory for WP. WP7 will be like SL2. Still not quite on par with the current iphone/android offerings this fall. No thethering, no video chat, etc. but 2/3 years from now they will have better implementations of every the competition has plus a bunch of cool new stuff that no one else does. And then theyll be the ones widening the gap with each new version.
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iPhone has certainly become VERY stale
NonZealot 19th May 2010
@Johnny Vegas
If you look at the iPhone since inception, it is clear that Apple doesn't have an innovative cell in that entire company. It came out as a third rate phone with a grid, yes, a grid of icons for the home page and the only thing that has changed is that Apple has slowly been adding features that have been standard in other phones for years (and of course, charging their faithful each time since, surprise surprise, at least a few of those features are inexplicably incompatible with the previous iPhone). 3 years later and we are still stuck with a grid of icons on the home page.

I'll disagree with you on Android though. There is a ton of innovation there being brought to the table by the handset manufacturers. Android is Microsoft's competition when it comes to fantastic innovation. Apple is only competitive because they have leveraged their iPod / iTMS monopolies to break into the smartphone market.
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Hey, NZ-how's that Android "innovation" working for your SecPol?
matthew_maurice 19th May 2010
@NonZealot Any of those Android devices that are so "innovative" yet have hardware encryption so that your company's security policy will work?

I may have a "grid" of icons, but I can get my mail from an Exchange server with a standard security policy.
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Haha, how ironic you bring this up!
NonZealot Updated - 19th May 2010
@matthew_maurice
You sure you have hardware encryption or is Apple simply reporting to Exchange that they support this stuff?

http://gizmodo.com/5357285/iphone-os-31-breaks-ms-exchange-on-older-iphones

Before 3.1, firmwares just falsely reported that a user's iPhone supported device-level encryption. To frame this change as a bugfix is basically dishonest, since this "bug" was intentionally planted by Apple in order to rush full Exchange support out the door on devices that, by their very nature, can't have it. Now, anyone who bought an iPhone 3G under the (reasonable!) impression that they'd be able to use it to connect to their company's security-enabled Exchange server now can't.

That is pure evil. So, are you 100 percent sure that your iPhone supports hardware encryption or are you taking Apple's word on that one? They lied to you once. Are you sure they aren't lying to you again? How would actually test that your phone supported hardware encryption?

And just so you don't worry about my well being, the company I currently work for doesn't use Exchange but thanks for the concern!!!
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Pass the bong, Johnny
OS Reload 19th May 2010
I want to have some of whatever it is that you're smoking.
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Wow, you're an incredible optimist.
matthew_maurice 19th May 2010
@Johnny Vegas We're still 4-6 months out from a shipping Windows Phone 7 device, and by then we'll have iPhone OS4 and, surely, Android 2.2. Do you think there will be any market left for WP7 in "2/3 years"? If so, it will only be the small, and shrinking, share Windows Mobile has now.

I have a serious vision problem trying to see Microsoft pull any iPhone or Android users back to their platform. However, in all fairness I will say this, if they do, it will be the greatest comeback in technology history, short of Apple's recovery since the return of Jobs.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
itguy08 19th May 2010
@Johnny Vegas

WinPhone7 UI is a POS. Horrible, horrible UI and the design is just awful. Awful in that "we want to be hip but have no idea how".

And I won't even discuss what a POS the KIN phones are.

There's no hope for MS.
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Of course it is, itguy08. EVERYTHING MS
John Zern 19th May 2010
does is. by your "standards", the worst a product can get.
No real thought or imagination behind your posts, that the one real truth in your posts.

My bet would be that you've never, ever[ seen the UI.

Much like your posts: "I want to be hip but have no idea how".

Well, posting your usual biased post really isn't the way to do that.
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Sure it is itguy08. EVERYTHING MS
John Zern Updated - 19th May 2010
does is, by your "standards", the worst a product can get. No real thought or imagination behind your posts, that's the one real truth here in your posts. My bet would be that you've never, ever seen the UI.
Much like your posts: "I want to be hip but have no idea how".
Well, posting your usual biased post really isn't the way to do that.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
itguy08 19th May 2010
@itguy08

I have seen it and chopping text off the right/left is not good UI.

Nor are the fonts to large the Blind can see them.

None of this is good design. Period.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
Rama.NET 19th May 2010
@itguy08
Oh really, when did you see a physical Windows Phone 7, not KIN?
--Ram--
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
Loverock Davidson 19th May 2010
I'm pretty sure Microsoft has planned on having a rocky road until the release of Windows Phone 7. I like the concepts of it, its a new UI and is quite the game changer. They realize people are holding out for that so they will take that into account. But when Windows Phone 7 is released, watch out world.
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Microsoft Windows Phone 7
tjbinet@... 19th May 2010
Windows Mobile has a real problem. I am one of the remaining supporters of this OS because it allows a true mobile computing platform (MS Word, MS Excel, etc.), however they are slow to the party. Even if the new mobile OS is a home run, they are loosing potential customers to the faster, more innovative competitors. Microsoft's support and marketing is terrible. They release OS revisions at the launching of new devices, but don't help existing customers with older devices with a migration path to the new OS short of buy a new device. I'm personally tired of waiting for Microsoft to get their act in gear and will likely turn to the new IPhone or Android smartphones that are or soon will be available.

-Tom
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That's where a user updatable OS comes in real handy
John Zern 19th May 2010
Becuase the big issue in the past was that to upgrade, you had to buy a new phone. This may very well have been a restriction placed on users from the manufacturers, or just the maket/technology at the time in general.

As for helping existing customers, not really all that fair to say, as did Apple help existing iPhone users upgrade from ApplePhone to iPhone? GPhone to Android?

No, because these phones where introduced later, the first generation of their products, so we have no idea what they would have done had they had OS out in 2002 or 2003.

I think they can shoot up very quickly if they market this as both Android and iPhone are, and if they can get it to integrate seamlessly with Windows 7.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
tburzio Updated - 19th May 2010
Why would any cell carrier allow Microsoft in the building? They have other suppliers who won't try and borrow their technology, or get into the business for themselves. Even Qualcomm politely showed Microsoft the door. OK, it was more like the pitchfork scene from Frankenstein.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
Rama.NET 19th May 2010
@tburzio
Are you sure? I don't think anybody would do that. Qualcomm wants their platform to be implemented. Look who is actually benefiting from Android, not Google, not carriers, not consumers, not phone makers, it is Qualcomm if you really look into that.
--Ram--
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tburzio's a known troll (shill). Qualcomm's actually
John Zern 19th May 2010
The first to work with MS on WinPhone 7

In our dealings with Qualcomm I can tell you that they want Microsoft in their building any way they can them there!

http://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2010/02/15/qualcomm-becomes-first-chipset-company-support-microsoft-windows-phone-7-se
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
Rama.NET 19th May 2010
@John Zern
Yes you are right. Qualcomm is business, and they definitely want to do business with companies like Microsoft always.
--Ram--
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A lot still to play for
RonanSail 19th May 2010
It's still early days in the smart phone battle. Microsoft have undoubtedly a lot of work to do, but ask yourself a few questions

1. do they have the desire to claw back smartphone market share?
2. do they have the finances to support that?
3. do they have the people? (or finance to get the people)

If Microsoft want it and go after it, then expect some interesting times ahead - it will be good for all of us - the consumers.

Is WP7 the product to do it? - don't know - jury still out until I see it and play with it.

Just got a HTC Desire and it is great! - I think it is only a matter of time ( 3 yrs) before Android is No1 in the market.

What would I do if I was Microsoft? along with developing WP7, develop silverlight for Android and let all of us build Android apps using .Net and VS. - bet on 2 horses at the same time.
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I'd really love to see a Giant Test comparing them all
stevey_d 19th May 2010
To me they all seem pretty similar these days. The forensic mind of a reviewer would be good to pick them apart and see what differences there are if any.
(one suggestion would be: if you have wifi & gps off, how long does the battery last? we all know that if wifi and gps is on, the battery is burned on all of the above).
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How melodramatic
croberts 19th May 2010
Apple walked in, made a new OS and new UI, and captured a large chunk of the market in 3-4 years from scratch.

Android, same thing. I think we are into the tail end of year two or early year three.

And what, MS has a long road? Give me a break. They clearly have other ideas because they could have easily purchased Palm if they wanted to.
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From scratch? Hardly!
NonZealot 19th May 2010
@croberts
captured a large chunk of the market in 3-4 years from scratch.

Apple was able to leverage their iPod / iTMS monopolies to break into the smartphone market. Without the iPod, the iPhone V1 wouldn't have sold a single unit considering how behind the times it was.

Android, on the other hand, was truly released from scratch, truly has a new UI (not just a grid of icons), and has probably already surpassed the iPhone in sales. Now THAT'S impressive!
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
maskman01 19th May 2010
@NonZealot

Impressive argument.

First you use an assumption that no one can ever prove. "Without the iPod, the iPhone V1 wouldn't have sold a single unit..."

Second you argue that Android has "PROBABLY" out sold the iPhone. With an arguments like that who needs facts.

And they say that Edmontonians are only good for digging ditches because they can't think.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
Rama.NET Updated - 19th May 2010
@NonZealot
But Android's UI Success is based on HTC's SenseUI and Motorola Droid. if these two were not there, Android would have suffered a lot after G1. Check how lousy was G1 initially. So in a nutshell, it wasn't Google who made it successful, but in fact it was due to HTC and Motorola. I still have my G1 eating dust somewhere.
--Ram--
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@maskman: Thanks, my arguments are impressive!
NonZealot 19th May 2010
First you use an assumption that no one can ever prove.

Don't believe it if you don't want to but only a fool would believe that the iPhone V1 would have done anywhere near as well as it did without Apple's ability to leverage their iPod / iTMS monopolies.

Second you argue that Android has "PROBABLY" out sold the iPhone.

Yes, I say that based on this:
http://industry.bnet.com/technology/news-analysis/google-android-outsells-apple-iphone/56759/

I was actually trying to give Apple the benefit of the doubt since so many Apple people hated that statistic so much. Even if Android hasn't passed Apple yet, they are going to very, very, very soon.

And I'm not Edmontonian so I have no idea what you are going on about.
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@Rama: That is all part of Android's advantage
NonZealot 19th May 2010
But Android's UI Success is based on HTC's SenseUI and Motorola Droid. if these two were not there, Android would have suffered a lot after G1.

That Android gives others the freedom to innovate is all part of the Android advantage. While I will grant you that Google may not be directly responsible for all the innovation we see with Android, Google does get credit for creating a platform that fosters innovation, unlike Apple's platform which inhibits innovation. The results are immediately obvious on the home screen. Apple gives you a grid of icons. Wow.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
csonera Updated - 19th May 2010
With Apple, Android & Microsoft all battling for market share, the real winners will be us... the consumer. Apple has gotten everyone innovating again, that's a beautiful thing! But they are going to finally be challenged by the likes of Android and yes, Microsoft.

Nonetheless, we will all have some great products to choose from. Choose the one that works best for you and enjoy!
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Microsoft's mobile plans will disintegrate next year
gjafg 19th May 2010
So Microsoft has a short road, not a long one. It will finish next year. WP7 is Microsoft's last roll of the dice. When WP7 sales fall flat in early 2011, it will then be obvious to all that Microsoft has failed, and is out of the mobile game.

Windows Phone 7 will not enter the market like a polished Android or iPhone. It will be buggy. It will be missing vital features (eg copy and paste). It will have relatively few apps. It will have no complex apps. Big app vendors (eg Skype, Mozilla) have already abandoned WP7.

Microsoft is not going to be able to sell these hobbled phones.
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Don't be so sure.
matthew_maurice 19th May 2010
@Market Analyst If the Zune shows us anything it's that Microsoft is content to throw good money after bad for years. A couple of [more] re-orgs at the top of the Mobile division can keep the budgets full for another 5-6 years, and by that time we could have a whole new mobile computing paradigm that MS will jump into and pursue, with futility, for years. Think of if as a full-employment program for Mobile OS engineers.
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HTC HD2
THEE WOLF 19th May 2010
Right now I am using my WM 6.5 HD2 phone which is running as a hotspot...sitting in my car crossing the water in a ferry; it has ever feature I wanted and more...takes awesome pictures with its 5 MP camera/video. I even created an application for it using Visual Studio in about 15 minutes...how cool is that. The graphics are wonderful and it has 16 GB of storage...standard.

I am not sure about which features the Android or iPhone has, but the HD2 running WM 6.5 is awesome...all with a 480*800 screen...soooo clear.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
jhughesy 20th May 2010
Totally agree. I have used the HTC Desire(android) and Iphone and the HD2 interface is much nicer. Compare SenseUI on Android and WM6.5 and you can see WM6.5 is better.
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If Android phones out sold the iPhone ....
wackoae 19th May 2010
how come is bellow the iPhone in the list???

I guess the claim was just pure BS.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
stewymelb 20th May 2010
I personally think the iPhone is decent device, but refuse to own one. Too expensive, and tied to that nasty thing called iTunes.

Android is beautiful, and is getting better all the time. I'm a windows phone man however, and on my third phone (an old i900 OMNIA from Samsung), which does everything I need surprisingly well.

The reason is this - I can get many many different UI's for it, differing features and many software packages - Most I don't even have to pay for. It's currently running WM 6.5, looks gorgeous, responds faster than the iPhone and has a memory card slot to expand it's slightly limited 8Gb of internal storage. It also runs for 3-4 days of normal use without a charge. Sure, it's touchscreen isn't as nice as the iPhone, however it is literally 1/2 the price when I bought it.

The main reason I like it - I can do with it what I please. I've even loaded a W7 phone-like UI on it which is a pleasure to use.

I think Microsoft have both the financial resources and technological clout to take on both Android and iPhone, especially with partner support. Android will be the real competition .... iPhone is to me like the first Ford cars - "you can have any colour as long it is black".

Consumers love choice. When niche value dissapears, the iphone pales in comparison. It's main clutch will be the amount of money people have invested into their (non-too-cheap) apps - this will be the hard thing to fight for both Android and iPhone.

I'm looking forward to the choice, and the innovation .. on all things not iGadget branded that is.
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
yarinsiz Updated - 11th May 2011
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RE: Microsoft's long smartphone road ahead
jackson1984-24316069205748857739440257893812 11th Oct
Hey I assumed this was an remarkably intriguing publish a lot of many thanks for pondering of it. You appear mulberry purses to be to become a really seasoned author.

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