Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Microsoft's tablet prospects: Caught in middle of Amazon, Apple?

By | November 30, 2011, 2:01am PST

Summary: Microsoft needs more than just interest to get into the tablet game. It will need some unique feature—Office integration is an obvious choice—as well as a real product/price strategy.

News that interest in Microsoft’s tablets has declined from the first quarter indicates that the software giant’s crawl to the market may bit the company, but the bigger issue may be pricing.

As noted by Mary Jo Foley, 46 percent of consumers were considering a Microsoft Windows tablet in the first quarter largely on a bet that some device would emerge. Today, consumer interest is 25 percent. In other words, Microsoft just isn’t viewed as a tablet player.

On the surface, Forrester’s findings aren’t all that surprising. Microsoft has largely been a tablet no-show. Meanwhile, Microsoft could create a great device and interest could pop. The overall takeaway is that many folks are tired of waiting around for a Microsoft tablet.

Also see: Great Debate: Kindle Fire vs. iPad: Which one should you buy?

Just a few months ago, Microsoft’s “fifth-mover” strategy in the tablet market looked better. Microsoft held back as numerous Android tablets flopped. No one could touch Apple’s iPad and No. 2 was wide open.

Now that tablet equation has changed a good bit. Why? Amazon’s Kindle Fire. At $199, the Fire will garner interest and probably a bunch of sales. Apple’s iPad will chug along at a higher price point. Caught in the middle are tablets such as RIM’s PlayBook and Samsung’s Galaxy Tab.

Add it up and Microsoft’s biggest issue with its tablet will revolve around pricing. Will Windows 8 tablets be at a high-end price point—$499 and up—or low-end at $199? Or will Windows tablets go for the uncomfortable middle ground, which has proven to be a graveyard for alleged iPad killers?

In other words, Microsoft needs more than just interest to get into the tablet game. It will need some unique feature—Office integration is an obvious choice—as well as a real product/price strategy. Microsoft is so late to the game that it won’t have much of a margin for error.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

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Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Microsoft's tablet prospects: Caught in middle of Amazon, Apple?
non-biased 2nd Dec
@Dr. Anomaly Have not tried that particular unit but having a netbook, an iPad and several laptops I couldn't go that route. I would far rather have an iPad and a full laptop for when I need it versus trying to do much work on a netbook. My netbook now collects dust except when I use it to run GPS software in remote areas.
Every company is a victim of its own baggage; Apple is saying "We understand you, and we love you, so long as you buy a product every year from us, at a rather inflated price", Google is saying "Don't you realise there's a better way of doing this, and we understand it better than you", Amazon is saying "Well, it doesn't have bells and whistles, but we think you might like it. Take a look inside". While M$ glares unsmilingly ahead, and says "There is only Microsoft".

Apple's approach makes them loved by their rich young market (and hated by those they don't want); Google's approach makes you want to shake 'em by the throat, shouting "we're not all geeks!". And with Amazon, you know it will arrive, and do exactly what it says on the packet. Cheaply.

And Microsoft? They just don't get it. End of.
@Heenan73

How is selling at a price point no other OEM can match a "rather inflated price"?

How quickly people forget that, before the launch event of the iPad, it was expected to cost around $800. And even the Ultrabook makers are struggling to match the cost of the MacBook Air.

I'm afraid your point is a little out of date.
@Englishmole I think you're right, other than what the Fire is showing. For some people, a less capable, cheap tablet does the trick. Amazon can subsidize the hardware a bit for future book sales obviously. Apple still has a great advantage in the full featured tablet area, but they can't rest on their laurels.
@Englishmole Play with the figures how you like; Apple's profit margins are way above the industry standard. A 'rather inflated price' is, as most readers realized, the understatement of the year. I don't 'blame' Apple for charging what they can get away with - that's business - but I don't see any need to pretend it isn't happening, either.
@Heenan73

"Play with the figures how you like; Apple's profit margins are way above the industry standard"

Sure it's above. That's because Apple was smart in securing great bulk pricing on componets early.

But let's not forget Apple also invested more than anyone in the industry when developing the iPad. They purchased a couple chip companies before the launch to work on the chip design inhouse. Apple now have 1000 engineers working on chip design for the iPad and their other devices. Who's paying their salary? Apple invested heavily on production plants and they're still investing to improve and expand production facilities. They are Samsung's "biggest customer" acording to Samsung. Apple just opened a new factory in Brazil to help with iPad production. Having a designer like Ive and great engineers working inhouse on chips etc cost Apple millions.

Compare their investment's to the competition that's getting free OS and software from Google.
@Englishmole

Hes obviously speaking of Apple products in general, not necessarily the ipad. But when u factor in that the iPad is twice the price and half the functionality of a netbook. Then yeah comparatively speaking it is over-priced.
@Heenan73
Don't take this the wrong way, but anyone who still continues to use that childish "M$" is basically saying "I don't understand what I'm seeing".

Microsoft in not creating an OS for the sake of a tablet, rather a unified approach, something Apple is trying to do, and the Kindle and other Adroid based tablets aren't really addressing.

Your view of where things are headed is a bit out of date.
End of Story. wink
@William Farrell I know what they're trying to do; I'd like to see your evidence that says it's the RIGHT approach. I'm not sure how abbreviating them to M$ proves anything about be 'outofdatedness'; though I'll happily concede it says much about my view of their motivation (duh! that's why I do it!).

The M$ business model has always been to make people believe that 'there is only M$', deviate and you're dead. With the growing importance of the cloud, and the arrival of mobile devices used by different people for different things in different ways, the M$ approach is out of date, not me.
@William Farrell

Actually, the use of "M$" is childish peevishness and nothing more.

@Heenan73 - actually Microsoft does "get it", they probably just don't get *YOU*, which, when all is said and done, really probably isn't any great loss.

That said, I'd bet a dollar that you've not used WP7/7.5 because really it is a spiffy UI and from the developer preview, they're expanding that into the desktop for a touch centric UI. And if they do it right, it WILL change how tablets are viewed and Apple/Android will need to do some serious catching up to offer the same immediate feedback/status that Metro provides.
@Heenan73 Funny man (if that is your real picture). You hit the nail on the head with Google's approach. I've been saying that Android is more suited for the geeks and iOS for the rest of the people.
However, if you feel that you don't want to buy an iDevice because you think they're making too much money, well I guess that's up to you. I would buy something because of the value though, not reject it because the company is making more profit than I think they should make.
@Heenan73 Couldn't agree more. Nothing new about engines for profit ... the difference now is that 'Service and Improvement" has been replaced by "Innovation and Change." With the focus on a generation whose value system is based on "New and Exciting" as opposed to "Achieving a goal utilizing technology" it is no surprise to those who have been participants for the last 30 years.

MS is another perfect example of "Resting on their Laurels" and thinking they are indispensable.

Personally the cost is not important - the VALUE is. And, THAT is different for each.

After over 20 years of MS and their OEMs (everyone knows the drill) it was a pleasure to have a single source that I could pay for and talk to someone of my geography who actually try to help and in most cases, do.

But, that's for me.
Add me to that 25% waiting on a proper computer in tablet form.
@kris_stapley@...
I'm there with you. Its hard to say anyone is interested or not since most people aren't tech geeks reading sites like these. Most don't know a thing about Windows 8 so frankly I think many just don't know they want it yet.
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So go buy one
Robert Hahn 30th Nov
@kris_stapley@...
Why are you waiting? They've been available for ten years. You can get a Windows tablet (Acer Iconia) online right now for $500. Unless you're just part of the Microsoft PR engine hosing up the forums, go put your money where your mouth is, then come back and tell us how great your tablet is.
@Robert Hahn
Read the article, he is referring to Windows 8, not Windows XP or 7. Maybe you are just part of the "write dumb things" PR engine hosing up the forums. May want to think about what you say before calling out others.
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Waiting for you know
Robert Hahn 30th Nov
@OhTheHumanity
I know what the article was about. Watch the indentation: I wasn't responding to the article. I was responding to the guy who wants "a proper computer" in tablet form. He can have one right now, except neither he nor anyone else wants one.

We are told by Microsoft that this obvious lack of interest in "proper computers" in tablet form will be cured by Windows 8. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. What the article is about, since you brought it up, it that more people every month are abandoning the wait.
@Robert Hahn

The sad part is, those tablet PCs and Slates and UMPCs/Origami that was in the market for over a decade now will probably suit his/her needs better than this W8 touch UI tablet.

I couldn't imagine trying to be productive using full blown Photoshop or AutoCad with my fingers on a tablet. I would want a mouse or stylus, which those tablet PCs and Slates and UMPCs/Origami and laptops with swivel screens had. Either the MS PR machines are going extra hard or there's lots of confusion with regards to tablets and what consumers really want.
@Robert Hahn
The operative word here is Windows 8. Waiting for Windows 8!! By the way, you can't go aroung telling people what they want, and expect them to take you seriously. Just saying!!
@kris_stapley@... AKA the laptop...
"It will need some unique feature..."

You mean like a full blown OS? What is with these posts lately. ZDnet seems to be completely blindfolded by this ridiculous Forester study.

Microsoft's tablets strategy is to replace the Laptop/Netbook. For the people with a lack of vision, it may seem hard to understand that right now, but it will be clear in a couple years once Win8 has taken stronghold.
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Beemertrucks
Robert Hahn 30th Nov
    Microsoft's tablets strategy is to replace the Laptop/Netbook.

But whenever anyone asks why a person might want a Windows tablet, we get answers like "A full-blown OS" or "so you can do RealWork(tm)." Yet real work requires a keyboard, which defeats the purpose of a tablet, unless you jump through a bunch of contortions about how consumers will carry along bluetooth or USB keyboards... something for which there is little evidence, and a lot of reason for doubt since laptops with integrated keyboards are dirt-cheap, more powerful, and not all that much heavier or bigger than a tablet plus a carry-along keyboard.

I think the story about how Windows tablets (or slates, or whatever Ballmer is calling them this week) will succeed because people want Business Computers in a tablet form factor is so much canal water. What corporation is going to pay a price premium so its 5,000 road warriors can carry tablets and carry-along keyboards instead of laptops that are better/faster/cheaper and barely a quarter-inch thicker?
@Robert Hahn I suspect that there is a case for more tablet + docking system with keyboard, but that's a hardware issue, and it doesn't have to be windows. This assumption that every desk-top user will die before using non-windows ignores the 12% who use Apple, plus the 10-15% who have used it at some point, and therefore know - for a fact - that no-one NEEDS windows.

This false memory thing is built on the poor uptake of Linux, forgetting that (a) M$ spent millions ensuring it didn't compete and (b) it never broke through the geek/human barrier.

Watch my lips: No-one NEEDS Windows.
Well, The Win 8 tablet prices will range from $199 to $3000 depending on the hardware. Expect an avalanche of real tablets to be released when Win 8 is released. The current equation of IPAD + KINDLE FIRE = 95% of tablets will drastically change.

It???s true that people are tired of waiting for a windows tablet??? but if WP7 is any example, One could expect the best in the industry experience when a Win 8 tablet is released. Android is still a mess and if you look at the top apps in the android market, they are for OS ???maintenance???. Only fansboys will by an android tab and for iPAD, apple always have a set of rich but dump customers who will by anything from apple regardless of price, or functionality.
@owlnet If WP7 is any indication? Now that is down right funny. Best in industry experience? Maybe for you but that is subjective and apparently based on WP7 sales not what the vast majority think. If WP7 and/or a Win 8 tablet are the best for you then by all means use them but it's best to keep your mouth shut about everyone else rather than show yourself as a narrow minded fanboy when you claim to know what everyone else wants.
Oh that's right, they are a software company and don't build / sell computers.
Maybe Microsoft is late to the game because they don't see a huge need for tablets like ZDNet wants us to believe. They are only getting into it to cash in on whats left of this fad. With all the interest in Microsoft Windows 8 that is enough momentum to stay in the tablet game. If Microsoft wanted to blow the market away they would make a Courrier v2.0. That would be the device people would stand in line for.
About a year back (maybe less) I ordered a laptop/tablet running Windows 7 (sort of works with a pen like device, not great). They would have to do something with their legacy UI (doubt that Windows 8 or Windows phone 8 is the answer) as they are not oriented toward tablet based productivity.
I don't see ANYBODY 'waiting for a W8 tablet' - or any other tablet, for that matter (except a few of the die-hard Apple crowd who start demanding the next fashion gizmo while the last one is on charge for the first time).

Most customers buy from what is available; being unavailable, therefore, means you missed the boat. And of those that ARE available, customers generally want a list of features at a good price. "Windows", I almost guarantee, will not feature on that list. What windows 'does' or 'doesn't do' may well be an issue, but even after 15 years of M$, people will go for what works, at their price, and won't miss windows if others do it better.

When I said " While M$ glares unsmilingly ahead, and says "There is only Microsoft".", it's exactly the arrogance and small-mindedness of their assumptions that will undermine their latest come-back tour (Featuring at secondary venues at a city near you).
@Heenan73 "I don't see ANYBODY 'waiting for a W8 tablet' "
I agree that "die-hard Apple fans" always want the "latest and greatest" flashy product and given that Apple is far more a marketing company than innovator I understand why. But, having used the 'developer' version of Win 8 and being surprised by how well it works, I'll also try all of the releases up until the final rtm- I'm careful how I spend my money, especially on tech, so I'm waiting for a Windows 8 tablet because I'm willing to pay a premium for a tablet that can easily work as a desktop machine. So, now you've seen someone WAITING for a Win 8 tablet and I can assure you I am not the only one! And why do you belittle Microsoft's products as "come-back tours"? They entered the desktop computer field a decade after IBM and Apple, yet nearly a billion machines run some version of Windows and there are now more Windows 7 macines in use than ALL Apple desktops combined and Win 7 is two years old, while IBM wisely went back to their core strength in main frame machines... Just why do you assume that Microsoft won't be the leader or at the very least a major player in tablets?
By the way, using a $ sign for MS is cute- my ten year old would find that very clever.
@xplorer1959 No disrespect - really - but you are waiting for W8 for geek reasons; in the context of this 'mass market thread', that doesn't count wink

I take my hat off to Early Windows; it changed the PC into a reality for me and millions of others. But the question you have to ask in marketing matters is "What have they done LATELY?" - Windows and indeed M$ is currently known for damping down innovation, not embracing it. Ever since they stopped WP working as well as Word, they've been into restriction - they did it with Chrome, they are STILL tying to strangle the cloud at birth, so it's hard to belive they have a serious clue about what will sell a tablet (clue: pretending it's a mobile PC is suicide).

Don't get me wrong, I have no inside info, and I am prepared to be shocked by W8 and its family. But the odds are against, aren't they? happy
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Microsoft: Agile? No.
Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate 30th Nov
The tablet market is saturated. As such many vendors are eliminating their skus for tablet devices altogether because of slim or no profit margin.

It's B&N, Amazon, Apple. The rest are sol because they don't know how to bolster their product offerings with 'content'.
When Windows 8 comes out - the iPad will be the one in the middle. You'll have the Kindle (sudsidized by content) at the low end, and Windows 8 devices which act as both a tablet and a PC at the high end. At that point in time, the iPad will be the device in the middle and will be looking very expensive for just a tablet. The capabilities of the iPad had better grow (ie. also act as a PC - drive a big display, keyboard and a mouse and also run MS Office) or sales growth for this device will dramatically slow and may even shrink for Apple.

I also think the notion that the public doesn't care about a Microsoft tablet is mis-guided. The public isn't going to care about any tablet other than the iPad unless it's dramatically cheaper and filled with content like the Kindle. However, that's not really what Microsoft is going to offer the public with Windows 8. They're going to offer a PC and a tablet as a single device, which is something the public will be interested in - because it will save them money.
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Not that big a deal
Robert Hahn 30th Nov
The good news for Microsoft is that they won't be betting the company on that hypothesis. I personally think the idea that people want a Swiss Army Knife tablet is bunk, and that if Microsoft is aiming Windows 8 to produce that result in a sort of Super-sized Asus Transformer, they will enjoy only limited success. The Plain Old Laptop is a very close substitute for such a device, and it's a lot cheaper. Except maybe in the Executive Suite, I don't see a lot of companies paying extra to save their road warriors a quarter-inch in thickness and a pound or two in weight.

I think the business-productivity types will in the main stay with laptops, and the media-consumption uses will go to tablets. I don't see Windows having any advantage in that segment unless Microsoft talks Amazon into switching over from its customized Android.

The real issue for Windows 8 is whether corporations will adopt a new Windows OS on their desktops and laptops so soon after switching to Windows 7. The history of these things is that the corporate world skips every other major rev of Windows.
@scott2010 The capabilities of the iPad had better grow (ie. also act as a PC - drive a big display, keyboard and a mouse and also run MS Office) or sales growth for this device will dramatically slow and may even shrink for Apple.
You do realize don't you that the iPad can already drive a big display via airplay, use a bluetooth keyboard (why would you want a mouse on a tablet) and MS has announce they are working on Office for the iPad which will compete price wise with the iWorks line of apps at $10 each. Since they have already covered the capabilities that you said it needs to grow into I guess it's pretty safe then?
Hadn't seen this mentioned yet but exactly how will a Win8 tablet be competitive if MS doesn't build it? Given that the tablet a "full blown OS" will need pretty beefy hardware and that the hardware manufacturer will factor in the price of paying MS for the OS I'd say they are going to have a tough time being competitive.
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It's fun to wait
Robert Hahn 30th Nov
Worry about that when it happens. In the meantime, we need to do all we can to convince people to wait for Windows 8. Every person we get to stall on buying a tablet is a person we at least have a shot at when we finally have a product to sell. People who go off and buy an iPad or a Nook or a K-Fire are probably gone from the market for a good three years.

That Windows 8, it is going to be so cool. Everyone will want to wait for Windows 8. I know I am, and so is my sock puppet, who will be replying to this note to echo that he too can hardly wait for Windows 8. Windows 8 will have features, and benefits, and exciting moving squares. Once it arrives the 600-pound ship will slash and burn its way across the landscape, leaving only the lamentations of Google's women.
I'm confused!

iCloud. "Everything to the internet." Office 365.....

Tablets - Not a lot of resident memory. Apple's vision is more of an x-term, dependant on their cloud. Just enough resident horsepower and memory to handle the interface to the "source".

Why the hell would anyone want to put Office on the device? Why would Microsoft even think of going down that road?
@greg_nw@... M$ loathes the cloud and fears Google Docs; Office 365 was a compromise because they couldn't do nothing. Either way, they want money for software, and that won't sell many tablets!
@Heenan73 MSoft loathes the cloud. Are you mental? They love the cloud, they are pushing Azure more than anything, their cloud provides cloud services even for Amazon and Apple...Think you need to check your facts on that one, MSoft love the cloud and are heavily, heavily invested in it.

Oh by the way, many of the new features in Windows 8 revolve around leveraging the cloud, Azure...
@AndrewOneDegree Not disputing your claim that MS provides cloud services to Apple through Azure but do you have anything to back this claim up? Only reason I ask is that I have seen tons of posts speculating that they do but have yet to ever see anything that confirms those speculations.
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Zune
fwarren 30th Nov
Hopefully there will be no talk of the "value proposition" of bundling a tablet with anything related to the "Zune" name or product line.
One surefire way to guage if Microsoft has an impending a$$ kicking product on the rise, is to listen to the daily drumbeat to try and negate it's introduction. I've been reading several of these blogs for 3, 4, 5 years, and I have never seen so much fuss over a non-released item!! You go Microsoft; you've got your groove on!!
My sister just picked up the Dell Inspiron Duo -- basically a netbook with a flippable touch screen display so it can also function as a tablet; has Win7 on it. For $399, it has a full-fledged OS, a 289 GB drive, and 2 GB of memory. And it also doubles as a tablet, albeit just a bit thicker. All in all, I'd MUCH rather have one of those than an iPad, as it is capable of doing a lot more, and it costs much less.
@Dr. Anomaly Have not tried that particular unit but having a netbook, an iPad and several laptops I couldn't go that route. I would far rather have an iPad and a full laptop for when I need it versus trying to do much work on a netbook. My netbook now collects dust except when I use it to run GPS software in remote areas.
Lets face it, people want different things from a tablet, the point MSoft are going for is flexibility and the ability to manage a single OS across all devices - which makes a lot of sense!

I personally want a device that gives me maximum flexibility in what I can do and when. I want a tablet to consumer content (Kindle style), but I also want to be able to use apps (iPad style) and I also want to be able to do some real "work" on it - Win7 laptop style. Windows 8 delivers all that flexibility, so why would people not go for it. If you just want to consumer content then you can, and you can do it with a better OS and user experience compared to everything else that is out there...If you want apps, you can and if you want to do more, guess what you can...

Windows 8 metro interface with live tiles may seem weird at first, but just spend a few moments with it and you see how impressive it is, and why the user experience is so good. Makes all other tablets look dated...

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