Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

Summary: The guessing game swirling around Motorola's Xoom tablet sure is fun to watch. One analyst is estimating that Motorola Mobility has sold about 100,000 Xoom units so far. The big question is whether those sales are disappointing or decent.

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The guessing game swirling around Motorola's Xoom tablet sure is fun to watch. One analyst is estimating that Motorola Mobility has sold about 100,000 Xoom units so far. The big question is whether those sales are disappointing or decent.

This 100,000 guesstimate from Deutsche Bank comes as other analysts have marked Xoom sales as a disappointment. In fact, the Xoom disappointment drumbeat has been picking up for weeks. Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff isn't ready to throw the Xoom under the bus yet.

In a research note, Modoff writes:

The latest update to the Android developer website showing OS versioning indicates that 0.2% of Android devices run on version 3.0 aka Honeycomb. As far as we know, the Motorola Xoom is the only Honeycomb product on the market. We currently estimate that the Android installed base at around 50 million units, 0.2% of which is equivalent to about 100,000 units. There is probably some rounding error in our calculation, but we any such differences are likely minor. This level of tablet sales is in line with our estimates of 50k units in Q1 and 150k units in Q2. While we believe Street expectations may be a bit higher 100k units after only two months on the market is a decent start.

A few things to note here:

  • There are a lot of semantic issues. If you compare Xoom to iPad's sales, Motorola Mobility's launch is a "disappointment."
  • If you forget about the iPad, 100,000 units are "decent."
  • We'll know more about Xoom figures when Motorola Mobility reports its first quarter earnings in a few weeks.

Related:

Topics: Tablets, Enterprise Software, Hardware, Laptops, Mobility, Wi-Fi

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  • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

    100k is aiight.

    updated: Cheerleaders, lets see the color of your pom-pom.
    Return_of_the_jedi
    • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

      @Return_of_the_jedi
      Yeah, 100k is reasonable for several reasons. Everyone who isn't iPad-obsessed is basically in wait-and-see mode to see what arrives this summer. Plus, the current Xoom is missing several must-have features (like Flash support), which are coming in the next few months. I plan to buy a tablet later this year when everything is available to try and I'm sure I'm not alone in waiting.
      BillDem
      • Right on.

        @BillDem

        I also kind of wonder if that price tag doesn't have something to do with it?
        UrNotPayingAttention
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @BillDem

        Yeah they already shipped Flash support; it was available as an OTA in mid-March. Yet its addition made no material difference in sales.
        will.todd
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @BillDem: Me too. Apple doesn't interest me, Android does but I've got my eye on the Asus Eee Pad Slider. As much as tablets rock, I still want physical keys, especially for typing. It's also likely to be cheaper too.
        bradavon
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @BillDem
        Played with one and compared to an iPad2 side by side...
        IF the price was a bit lower ($449?) for the wifi I would get one.

        Moto priced themselves out of a potentially good seller.

        I wonder how many of those 100k units are business?

        :|
        rhonin
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @BillDem
        I read elsewhere that Motorola's sales estimates for Xoom were 50,00 for the first quarter and 150,000 for the second quarter. Those are low in comparison to other, similar devices. For example, iPad2 sold 300,000 on its first day. So, if Motorola has not achieved even the low estimates that it set, then that is a cause for concern . . especially for Motorola and its shareholders. If it is achieving its expectations, then well and good.
        Wakemewhentrollsgone
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @ptorning Based on what you just said, it sounds to me like Motorola exceeded their first quarter expectations by almost double. That is, assuming the 50/150 thousand estimate is true. If so, then 100,000 is a good figure for them. We'll just have to see if it continues to grow, won't we?
        Vulpinemac
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @BillDem It would only be decent if the Xoom had been introduced on it's own merits. It was not. Motorola, thru it's web and video advertising, positioned the Xoom directly against the iPad. Using the iPad as a metric for success, the Xoom is a miserable failure.
        His_Shadow
    • ANDROID is a MESS...and are you paying the GOOGLE TAX?

      http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/04/android-is-a-mess-say-developers/?section=magazines_fortune

      Not only the device fragmentation is a huge problem to android devs, along with many other areas, but the cess pool of junk apps in the Android ecosystem is not helping.

      Besides, Google makes money from every copy of android sold, hiding that very fact from everyone, saying their deals with vendors is confidential...PFFT.
      You can download the base android code but you can't get the code that the handset makers or carriers get.
      It's loaded with proprietary code which has created the
      <b>GOOGLE TAX</b>
      Sorry open source fanatics, you buy an andorid device you are paying a Google tax. Now since you've complained about the "Windows tax" for years, calling it an abomination, I would expect if you had an ounce of integrity you'd pass on any and all android devices.
      Maybe Cannonical will come out with a completely open smart phone OS...oh wait, their base PC OS is not even completely open.

      You gotta love the news that with the Nokia and MS partnership and the fact that the majority of devs are starting to write for Windwos phone 7....it's going to be a huge player. Not a matter of will they, but when will they. The 2015 predicition is conservative.
      Windows 8 is coming fast and there is nothing on the planet that matches the concept of windows 8 being the best you have ever seen.

      Let's see, who all do we have paying MS licensing fees for their use of Android, thereby admitting they believe Android has been partially created with MS technology. Seems there are some major players if I recall....

      LOL!! That fact that anyone ever thought Google was givinng away the Android OS is hysterical. I'm sorry.
      LOL.
      xuniL_z
      • Comprehension or FUD?

        @xuniL_z
        Have you, actually, read the article you referred to? :-O

        Here is what it says:
        "Baird's survey suggests that developers have taken Wilson's advice. 71% of respondents said they were writing apps for Android vs. 62% for iOS. (None of the other platforms drew more than 27%.)"
        Solid Water
      • solid water, I indeed read the entire article including what you posted.

        But that doesn't mean it will stay that way. If developers become frustrated with the various problems and luke warm sales, in this case anyway, there is nothing saying they will continue to write, or maybe not as heavily, as they are for Android at this time.
        I think you have to take the whole article in context and draw your own conclusions. I read into it that Google may not hold the developers they have now over the longer term, who may very well change focus to nokia and windows phone over time. They will follow the money.
        xuniL_z
      • I'm really trying to understand you,...

        @xuniL_z : ... and I'm about as anti-Android as you can get as far as a consumer OS is concerned. Your discussion doesn't seem to have any basis in fact as far as any pro- or anti-Google propaganda is concerned. If anything, it's not a Google tax so much as an OEM tax and a carrier tax as they try to individualize and identify their products as the only 'true' Android.

        What's worse is that you state so many projections and forecasts as absolute facts when there is no data to support them. Really, you qualify as a zealot of the worst kind.
        Vulpinemac
      • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

        @xuniL_z

        You don't really don't understand the "Windows tax" argument, do you ?
        Chipesh
      • Vulpine

        Everything I "project" or "forecast" is coming from the article to which I posted a link, or the many other versions of it on the web. <br>I may have paraphrased but did not embellish any of it. <br>Please point out what you are talking about. <br>And no, I don't believe everything I read, but the poll seems to have been done in a legitimate manner. <br>I'm just surprised the usuals have not claimed MS was behind it. <br>And enough of the BS man. It's not ONLY the handset makers trying to "individualize" their products, and your wording is duly noted. If you were referring to Windows OEMs you woudl have come right out and called it "crapware". <br>Enough of the bS man. You seriously think these vendors are somehow classier than Dell or HP because it's not MS code we are talking about. Shut up. <br>And I have read direct QUOTES from Google that they won't tolerate inquires to their deals with vendors, it's nobody's business. <br>I have also read in many places from reputable industry insiders that Google gets a percetage for the "GOLD CODE". It's not just vendor "indiviualization" or crapware if we are talking about MS. It's proprietary code supplied by Google. <br>You really think the only thing Google gets from the massive sales of android devices is more Ad revenues? <br>If that's the case you worse than a zealot, which you've already proved with double standards on how you speak about the same thing, but you are incredibly naive.
        I think it's just the usual case of double standards.

        But it is a Google TAX. Google is getting paid for their Gold code and you are paying for that in return.
        xuniL_z
      • chipesh, you are right, I don't

        OEMs want to make money.
        they sell what makes them the most money. It's called capitalism. Pure and simple. Now same vendors are scrambling to get android offerings. Is that windows tax too?
        Or did Microsoft stop "threatening" them?
        good God man.
        I swear I don't understand why you don't just move to a socialist country and be happy.
        xuniL_z
      • You are so wrong about my responses.

        @xuniL_z : First off, not one word of what I said was referring to Microsoft in any way about Windows OEMs. I was flat talking about Motorola, Samsung, LG and HTC and the way each of them has put their own GUI on top of Android, making effectively four different versions of Android that don't necessarily play nice with each other. Then when you add what the carriers are doing--specifically Verizon according to reports but allegedly by all of them--and now you have from twelve to sixteen different versions with almost no commonality allowing for centralized updating.

        I will state again that <i>supposedly</i>--meaning according to other third-party reports--Google is not making a single cent off of the licensing of Android, but rather ensuring that their AdSense (or whatever Google's system is) is on board every one of them, so all click-through advertising goes through them, making them millions of dollars weekly from advertisers.

        You don't know my mind so don't try to say I meant one thing when I specifically said something else. I will say one thing though; So far, Microsoft has never had the lead in computer technology, only in OS sales due to it's riding IBM's apron strings into the enterprise. Prior to that, Microsoft was no more and no less than any of the other OS and computer builders out there except they didn't bother to build their own hardware. Without that one link, Microsoft would have never dominated the desktop OS as long as it did and Apple and Google are proving it today. Microsoft is losing ground in the desktop/laptop market and it hasn't even made a notable start in the mobile market. Microsoft doesn't know how to lead--only how to follow. They try to arrange placement to command a market and they failed miserably this time. The connection with Nokia might give them a leg up in the international market, but Android already has a huge following there and Nokia is going to struggle with making a WP7 device that people really want. Nokia has an advantage Microsoft needs, but is it enough to even bring them close to Android?

        As for Windows 8--if it does to Windows what the Vista/Win7 changes did, then Microsoft is going to lose even more market faster. Yes, Win7 does seem to be the best Windows yet--I used to say that about XP--but if they make too many changes that make it even harder for the users to understand when they try to upgrade, those users or going to look for a more stable and progressive alternative.
        Vulpinemac
      • Vulpine. I'm not following you at all...

        <i>The connection with Nokia might give them a leg up in the international market, but Android already has a huge following there and Nokia is going to struggle with making a WP7 device that people really want. Nokia has an advantage Microsoft needs, but is it enough to even bring them close to Android?</i>
        Completely contrary to the link I posted at the beginning of the chain. It's your opinion vs. that of industry watchers and insiders. Maybe you are one, what are your credentials? They laid out a perfectly plausible scenario of why Windows phone 7 can/will do well in the next 3 or 4 years to the point of outpacing Google. You presented the case that was the first and foremost in the link I offered, device fragmentation.
        Didn't you read the story I posted?

        As for Windows 7 being too complex and driving people away...ummm...it's selling at a faster pace than XP man. It sold more than Apple and Linux's total marketshare combined in presales before it was even released! I don't know about your corner of the world, but people I know really like Windows 7 and it's so much more stable and the memory management is so much better than XP and past versions.

        Don't you think it's a bit contrary what goes on in the ABM world? For years we heard how XP was a fischer price UI and MS needed to break from their past and start from scratch. the almost did that with vista and Win7 and when the ABMers saw it was solid and secure, they focused on what?...come on, you know...the loss of backward compatibility. It's double standards right down the row. You know it and I know it, MS can do no right. The Linux world and OS X are fraught with problems just as large as any MS faces, yet there is always a happy spin put on those, or they are ignored and zdnet rarely puts its focus there. In fact the majority of zdnet bloggers are also full time ABMers.
        Sjvn made his living ripping on Windows and building up Linux to something it's not.
        Your idea that if Windows 8 is a total departure from any signs of leftover XP design that it would drive people to a new "progressive" OS, which would have no leftover XP designs!?!?
        Ultimately, Windows 8 will support all programs that Windows 7 back through XPSP2 so wouldn't that be the reason people would stick with it? I think so very strongly. You are selling people short, it's not the 90s any longer. People can handle changein their technology. they figure out a new smart phone every 2 or 3 years, don't they?
        And have you seen the windows 8 peeks? It's so intuitive that it's not going to confuse anyone.
        I think it worries you for that reason and that it's ahead of the rest of the field. Why would you feel threatened?
        btw, you do a great job at pretending you know what I am thining or anyone else you reply to, so don't feel like you have that market cornered, k?
        xuniL_z
  • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

    To be expected, there isn't a market for tablets except a very niche one.
    Loverock Davidson
    • RE: Motorola's Xoom: Are 100,000 units sold disappointing or decent?

      @Loverock Davidson Around 17 million people would disagree with you there.

      But hey...keep thinking that tablets are a fad.
      samalie