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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Nearly half of North American mobile users will buy iPhone 5 (survey)

By | September 28, 2011, 1:32pm PDT

Summary: The iPhone 5 is expected to be released next week, and Apple better get its supply ready as demand is already looking pretty high.

Apple has announced a special event dedicated to the next generation of the iPhone, slated for next Tuesday, October 4. An October launch falls way later than Apple’s traditional iPhone unveiling time frame around June each year.

Thus, those extra few months (along with a lot of hype) could be reasons why demand for the iPhone 5 (or whatever it will be called) is far higher than one might have guessed.

According to a new survey from independent mobile advertising network InMobi, approximately 41 percent of current mobile users in the United States, Mexico, and Canada are planning to buy an iPhone 5. If those numbers actually pan out, that would arguably make the iPhone 5 the most successful launch from the consumer electronics company ever.

James Lamberti, VP Global Research & Marketing at InMobi, remarked in a statement:

The combination of Apple’s increasing market share in mobile advertising and general consumer interest in their latest technology is another boon for the mobile advertising industry. Apple is currently the clear leader in terms of compelling user experience and customer loyalty, and we feel that their quality and pace of innovation when it comes to mobile devices will continue to improve the content and advertising experience for consumers for iPhone 5 and beyond.

Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean that all of these consumers are going to go out and buy the iPhone 5 the day it is released. (At least we hope not. Holiday shopping is stressful enough before adding a brand-new iPhone into the mix.) InMobi expects that more than half of that 41 percent group will throw down cash or plastic for the iPhone 5 within the first six months of launching.

There’s also another major caveat to this survey. InMobi predicts that if the iPhone 5 is only a minor release — say an iPhone 4GS or something like that, which has already drawn up numerous rumors of its own — then fewer than 15 percent of North American mobile users will likely buy the next-gen iPhone.

Thus, if the iPhone 5 is a revolutionary device for the brand, that means that those who would be willing to buy the iPhone 5 might just upgrade earlier than allowed, upgrade because they finally can and have been waiting for an iPhone (customers who still have an iPhone 3GS or earlier), or are switching from a completely different cell phone (and maybe even carrier) just for what could be the most advanced (or at least best-looking) smartphone available.

For those non-iPhone users, InMobi’s study revealed that 52 percent of BlackBerry users plan to convert to iOS with the iPhone 5, followed by roughly one in four (27 percent) of Android users.

However, even if it is a minor upgrade, at least 28 percent of BlackBerry smartphone owners will still make the switch, which is more revealing about the state of RIM and the BlackBerry brand than it might be about Apple.

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Rachel King is a staff writer for ZDNet based in San Francisco.

Disclosure

Rachel King

Rachel King has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted in this blog.

Biography

Rachel King

Rachel King is a staff writer for CBS Interactive in San Francisco. Before serving as a contributing editor at ZDNet in New York City for two years, she previously worked for The Business Insider, FastCompany.com, CNN's San Francisco bureau and the U.S. Department of State. Rachel has also written for MainStreet.com, Irish America Magazine and the New York Daily News, among others. Rachel has a B.A. in Mass Communications and History from the University of California, Berkeley and a M.S. in Journalism from Columbia University, where she served as art director for the student magazine, Plated.

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Selling your iPhone
TheBlitz 15th Mar
When it comes time to sell your iPhone 4/4S, I'd recommend looking at iPhonesIntoCash.com. That's where I sold my 3GS before upgrading to the 4, and I thought their service was both easy to use and very fast!
More apple rumours... it does not stop the fact that 6 months after verizon launch, apple is still at 28%
@tatiGmail

You quote the 28 percent marker share as if it were a small and trivial number. Interesting.
@tatiGmail And how feel is Microsoft???s latest version of a mobile OS doing? If I am not mistaken, and I am not, Apple sold more iPhones on Verizon than Microsoft???s partners sold Windows phones. After a year on the market, being at less than 2% (0.02) is not a screaming success. Which would you rather announce? 28% of the market using your product, or less than 2%?
@Rick_Kl
Actually he is a Google fanboi. Considering every Apple Basher as Microsoft fanboi is little out of sink and it stinks. You should have figured it out from his handle tati Gmail, I highlighted Gmail for your reference.
@Rama.NET, who really cares? Most of the Apple haters are indeed Microsoft fanboys. So there are a few Android Zealots, it is all good. Maybe that way the Android Zealots can claim something in common with the Windows fanboys?
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@Rick_Kl
He applied for one of the janitorial positions and didn't get it.

Ever since then, he has hated Microsoft and rants about Microsoft even when no one was talking about Microsoft.

It is very sad to see his descent into madness.
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@Rick_Kl Your out of the loop. Apple haters are everyone else. Either they hate:

Apple's policies
Apple's treatment of: Developers, publishers, music industry, drm, manufacturing conditions in China, elitest MacHeads ......

Be it M$, Linux, Android, BB, Palm, everyone. Apple is a horrible company. Why else would they lose the momentum an lose to a "sub-par" OS as Android? It ain't free M$ made sure of that and still it rules the smartphone market. Just like everything else has been able to destroy OS X in market share.
@tatiGmail
28% is bigger than any independent Android phone maker. Compare Apples to Apples. If you are comparing Android Vs. iOS, even though that is different issue, Apple is still leader there because iOS powers iPod Touch, and iPad in addition to iPhone.
@Rama.NET Actually they are only the leader for a limited time. Android is activated on more phones alone than iPod Touches, iPads etc combined.

But thats neither here nor there because its just an excuse that iFans normally use to make themselves feel better. The fact is that the iPhone is only the top selling phone because its the only place you can get iOS. If it were split like Android it wouldn't be. People are obviously breaking for Android twice as many times as they are for iOS. The OEMs have stiff competition so no one is going to pull far ahead enough to outsell the single iPhone. Only iFans somehow think this means that the iPhone is popular. Don't follow them on their backwards logic.
I am a current BB user, and I am getting sick of this buggy device and its inability to use Wi-Fi for most Apps. If the iPhone 5 is 4G, it will be worth the money. If it is just a iPhone 4GS, I'd probably just buy the $99 iPhone 4. Android is an option, but I'll wait to see what Apple does first.
@ncted .. Its true.. I have the same problem with my bb. It getting really anoing too. Since Vodafone had updates their prepaid internet.. i have problems conneting.. I hear great reviews about the iphone.. Maybe i have to choose this cell for better connetivity.

beltegoed opwaarderen
When 50% of the population has committed to buying an unreleased product from your competition you've lost before the fight even began.

And those consumers, once they buy their first iPhone, aren't coming back.

Ever.
@toddybottom I don't think this means much. It basically says if the iphone 5 is the bees' knees they'll buy it; if it isn't much better than the existing iPhone, they won't. I think most people would say that about the new AMD or Intel CPUs or most any other gadget on the market.
@toddybottom
Don't see how this is any different than people who say they'll buy a Nokia WP7 device or Nexus prime. Of course, there are more people saying that about the iphone based on past track record.

Still, I'm not sure where you're getting the 50% from. 41% of mobile users say they'll buy an iphone if it's significantly better and less than 15% will buy it if it's not a significant upgrade. In either case the assumption for this survey was that the next iphone will be better plus it will come with iOS 5 of course.

To everyone else, I apologize for restating stats that was already in the article, but clearly there are some commenters who seem to forget what they've read by the time they scroll down to the comment section.
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Not coming back?
itpro_z 28th Sep
@toddybottom Funny, I know people who used to have iPhones who now have something else. My son, for example, once said that the iPhone was the best smart phone he ever had, but now is a proud owner of a Samsung Galaxy. When I asked him why he changed, he responded that the iPhone was a fun toy but a lousy phone. I guess some people still actually TALK on their phones once in a while.
@itpro_z ... can't make phone calls with an iPhone.

Please, have some decency and don't claim it is your son who said that. That statement is 100% from you. There are MILLIONS of iPhone owners that never had an issue with the device and never had a dropped call problem.
@toddybottom Yea and about 6 months from now through the magic of Apple that 50% will equate to almost zero gain in market share just as every other hyped up Apple demand story has ended.
We saw these same stats when the iPhone 4 was released and again when it hit Verizon, there is a difference between intent and follow through!
@Peter Perry Oh ... wait. The iPhone 4 is the #1 smartphone in the world. Funny too .... they iPhone 3GS is the #2.

Guess Apple must be doing something wrong and nobody is buy their products.
@owlnet
Rachel King: Oops my mistake. These surveys were actually about Windows Phones and I accidently wrote iphone.

owlnet: Ahh.. that makes more sense.
@anono LMFAO, that perfectly describes the Windows Fanboys. When Microsoft does something, it is for the endusers benefit. If anyone else does the exact same thing, then it is to the detriment of the enduser. The recent news about Windows phones tracking users is seen as a good thing, but change the name to Apple, or Android and suddenly it is evil.
  • Flagged
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More than 50% of North Americans (in general) are complete idiots
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Probably true
toddybottom 29th Sep
@omdguy
Look at anono and Rick_Kl. They prove your point.
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I can this one better...
omdguy 28th Sep
more than half of north American users are idiots who believe in an invisible man in the sky, who think evolution is bogus and who will buy anything that is marketed to them because they are too dumb to know better.

Did I capture that correctly?

Yes I did...
My wife wants one.

I won't even think about it.

That's 50% And it's not bad if you're Apple
Oh yeah and one question, was the polling done in Cupertino?
@Peter Perry No, just current iPhone owners were surveyed.
So, I guess that means 50% of iPhone users are switching to something else.
maybe inMobi should have been a bit more specific on the numbers of mobile users surveyed. For all anyone knows,
they asked 4 people with a mobile device and drew conclusions from them. The headline could also have read
"Over half of mobile users will not buy an iPhone 5".
As for myself, I'm not really in the market for a smartphone, still using a 5 year old PDA
After using a Windows Phone with live tiles, I could never go back to an OS with static icons. Though it's impossible to realize just how lame icons are unless you have actually used Live Tiles.
The friends and collegues that I have spoken to (polled) regarding smartphones and what they plan to do when it is time to upgrade is overwhemingly to purchase a high powered android device followed by sticking with iPhone (those who already have iPhone) and then some of them who have either iPhone or Android devices are considering getting a Windows smartphone. So I would be very interested to see the polling data, because this entire article is just simply poor and biased to Apple, I guarentee if statistical sampling is done with Americans, enough current smartphone owners to statistically say what the American who plans to purchase or upgrade their smartphone is, that the numbers would probably be more realistically as follows (Android Powered Device - 40%, iPhone Device - 35% and other undecided at the remaining 25%) C'mon Man...
If it doesn't have sampling size and total people contacted, it's worth less than the minute it took to read it.
AKA Media loves Apple stories that get page clicks. Also Android will still be dominating next year.

Apple will stay a minor market share company that takes billions from its users. Nothing like a third place company getting all the media headlines.
If half of current iPhone users plan to buy an iPhone 5, that???s good news for Apple and shows incredible customer loyalty. But what???s wrong with an iPhone 4 or 3 or even 2 for that matter? Do we always have to have the latest and greatest? No wonder the economy is in the toilet ??? too many people spending their cash on items of dubious value. Apple doesn???t need the money. How about putting some of that cash in the bank for a rainy day? And please don???t try to convince me you???re so important that you simply HAVE to have the most current technology. If something doesn???t or can???t last a couple of years, then it might have been a questionable purchase to start with. Don???t get sucked into the smart-phone industrial complex!
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cdfwekrdfe56-24379033423043776231195658618763 25th Nov
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Selling your iPhone
TheBlitz 15th Mar
When it comes time to sell your iPhone 4/4S, I'd recommend looking at iPhonesIntoCash.com. That's where I sold my 3GS before upgrading to the 4, and I thought their service was both easy to use and very fast!

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