Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Nokia and Microsoft's Windows Phone 7: It could work, but why stop there?

By | December 20, 2010, 4:36am PST

Summary: Nokia should hedge its bets on software across the board. Nokia should offer Android, Symbian and Windows Phone 7 devices.

Nokia is reportedly mulling whether to offer Windows Phone 7 phones according to the rumor mill.

The idea isn’t half bad.

First, these rumors may be completely half baked, but they do add up and have appeared before. Nokia CEO Stephen Elop is a former Microsoft man. He’s evaluating the Nokia’s prospects and aiming to reposition the company. By now he has figured out that Nokia’s core competency is hardware and scale.

Of course, Nokia may have some software mojo, but it has been consolidating its Symbian efforts. Meanwhile other analysts have said Nokia should ponder Android devices. Why stop there? Nokia should evaluate Windows Phone 7 and Android devices. Why shouldn’t Nokia be a player more like HTC or Motorola, two companies that primarily focus on hardware?

Nokia should hedge its bets on software across the board. Nokia should offer Android, Symbian and Windows Phone 7 devices.

Here’s the Google Translation of Eldar Murtazin’s newsletter on Nokia-Microsoft:

In the last month behind closed doors is a discussion of expanded cooperation Nokia and Microsoft (two-way discussion, initiated by the new leadership of Nokia). Not simply the exchange of technology, but creating an entire line of Windows Phone devices that may go under the name Nokia, through the sales channels for the company, and will also have the characteristic features of its products. This is a desperate measure of the two companies.

One quick thing to note: Desperation can sometimes work. Windows Phone 7 is a good mobile operating system in search of distribution. Nokia has scale, global reach and products for every price point. Nokia has everything but an OS. On paper, the Nokia-Microsoft thing could work.

Matthew Miller notes
:

I am personally a fan of the new Windows Phone 7 operating system, I have always been a Windows Mobile fan, and also enjoy using Nokia devices. WP7 is obviously a much more modern and exciting operating system than the current Symbian OS found on devices like the Nokia N8, but Nokia is working hard on future versions of Symbian and their MeeGo OS with Intel so I highly doubt they are going to throw in the towel and adopt a Microsoft OS that is in its infancy and has a long way to go. If they were going to adopt another OS, it would make more sense to go with Android that is far more advanced and selling at a much faster pace than anything else at the moment.

Wharton professor Kartik Hosanagar said in a recent Knowlege@Wharton article:

Not owning the software platform used in its phones means that Nokia would be “giving up significant revenue and profit potential. So it wouldn’t be my first strategy. But if Nokia can’t get its act together in a year, I think it may well be the only thing to do. I think Android on Nokia could be very appealing to consumers. But Nokia is not going to embrace the Android bandwagon so soon. There’s the issue of giving up on a lucrative software platform. And then there’s the question of whether a former Microsoft exec will so easily embrace Google’s Android.”

Other Wharton profs say that Nokia’s choice of operating system is the biggest decision Elop will make.

Miller calls the Windows Phone 7-Nokia rumors wild, but I don’t see Nokia’s software strategy as a zero sum affair. Nokia should hedge its mobile OS bets in a few places. And Microsoft would give Nokia some sweet terms just to get distribution. Nokia’s future business model may look a lot more like HTC’s.

Nokia’s choice is to fight the last war or move forward. When it comes to mobile Microsoft is basically in the same boat. Those facts may make Nokia and Microsoft good allies.

Also see the latest on Nokia and Windows Phone 7.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

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Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Nokia and Microsoft's Windows Phone 7: It could work, but why stop there?
birumut Updated - 17th Jun
Great! !! thanks for sharing this information to us!
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0 Votes
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Disagree
Economister 20th Dec 2010
If HW and scale is your core competency, why put yourself at a disadvantage by using a more expensive OS that has not proven itself in the market?

It seems to me Android would be a much better bet. If Nokia can produce better HW for less money, they should attack the Android market and become a dominant player there.

Sharing the spoils with MS does not make much sense to me. If you somehow help MS to become a major player in the smart phone market, guess what the payback will be?

A higher price for the OS. Only a fool would go there.
@Economister
I don't think Nokia would go with Android, because it is from Google and if they want to go with Exchange and office integration, why the heck they have to go via. WP7+Nokia is good combination and better alternative to both Android and iPhone. And how much higher per phone $150 or $8 to $15. Even at $15 they get full support from Microsoft unlike free and hit the road. Also Android is not free for your information. You are tied to do Market, Google apps and pay for them.
@Rama.NET
A. Exchange integration is in Android as of 2.x
B. MS has screwed many hardware vendors over and over again. Would Nokia risk being the next one?
C. Android is a proven platform. WP7 is yet to prove itself.
D. Google market has the largest number of free apps
E. Support from MS means nothing, except if you have no software competency in your company whatsoever. Not the case with Nokia.
0 Votes
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MS party line?
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@Rama.NET

Android is not free because of MS's likely bogus patent claims?
@kirovs@...
1. You proved me. That is what I am saying. Nokia already has an agreement with MS for Exchange integration on Nokia sets. Why do they need another one?
2. Android is also doing the same. They have no support for the Vendors. Whatever Microsoft did with Windows Mobile, Google is also doing the same. Fragmentation. Can I upgrade my EVO 4 to Gingerbread as soon as it is released, no I live at the mercy of Sprint and HTC and likewise. See the issue. Google has no control. And bottom line the users are screwed.
C. Android is proven to whom. I see a lot of bugs and issues daily on my Samsung Galaxy Tab, and HTC EVO. The peep on EVO just crashes a lot of times and I have to boot the phone regularly. iPhone and iPad are clear winners here.
D. Who cares about free apps, when they don't do what the user wanted. Also why do I have to send my info freely to anyone. Google doesn't care to check the apps and their quality like Apple and Microsoft does. Quality of testing sucks. Period.
E. Can you prove this. I can prove this. If you are certified by Microsoft means, your app is 100% working. I know this, I have developed apps for all those platforms.

Please don't blind yourself to tying to one platform. I enjoy my EVO, Galaxy Tab, iPhone 4, iPad, Samsung Focus and HD7. Each one has its own + and -. When you are using Technology, remember it is created by Man and will have issues.
@Economister
Nope, You have to pay for google apps and marketplace.
@Rama.NET - your points and response - nicely done - and the silence is deafening
0 Votes
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Not free
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@Rama.NET

So then you do agree, contrary to your previous assertion, ("Also Android is not free for your information.") that Android is indeed free. The price of applications was not the point of the discussion. Since android is indeed free, the HW manufacturer can install it without having to pay any licensing fees whatsoever. Not so with WP7.
@Economister

In regards to Android being free...

Keep in mind that there are still costs associated with using Android.

1. development costs for creating a custom UI
2. maintenance of a software support staff
3. license fees for some audio and video codecs

These are things that Nokia would not have to worry about if they chose a solution like WP7 because they would be taken care of by Microsoft.
@kirovs@...
1. Android is not free and if you watch HTC and other producers of Android devices they are paying fees out to Microsoft for patient infringement...

2. Licensing Exchange Active Sync is not free... it cost money - ask Google and Apple

3. Free apps suck most of the time and data and information is given away freely without users knowledge - this has been shown on both Apple and Google respective.

4. Support from Microsoft means support... and deep support at that - if you know a thing or two about how Microsoft support it's partners you'd know better.
0 Votes
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kirovs@...

1) Nokia, unlike many other mobile vendors, has one thing in common with Apple's iPhone products... they are primarily aimed/marketed at the higher-end market (usually with pricing structures that reflect this fact - maybe not so much over there in the US where there is lot of price-subsidising often via network-provider lock-ins).

Simply put, offering a high-end phone with an open-source mobile OS makes for a self-contradictory product; who's it marketed to?

b) Nokia have always had consistency with their mobile OS across a plethora of devices. Even where the OS has used different architectures, the interface principles have flowed across.

In contrast, one needs to remember that Android seems to have a multitude of flavours, depending on what each mobile vendor chooses to do with it. Now I'm not saying this is a weakness of Android (far from it, in many ways); just highlighting why this may not be something which would be viewed in a favourable light for Nokia... not by Nokia, and likely not by may of the Nokia faithful
@Economister
I could think of a few hundred reasons. But, here are two:

They don't hate Microsoft like some other people do.

They don't want to sell devices with Android attached.

Bonus: Seems like a good business deal!

And, thank you for playing!
0 Votes
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WP7 might just be free...
HollywoodDog 20th Dec 2010
@Economister ... Microsoft is desperate not to allow this product to be a failure. And a fool CEO and his fiduciaries money is soon parted.

The 'two way dialogue' needs to be something like this: "Mr. Ballmer, can you hear me? Great. We are Nokia. We sell many millions of phones, and we are interested in smartphones. Now we can have Android and its marketplace and ecosystem for free. What are you willing to do for me today, tomorrow, and the day after if we go with WP7? Before you answer, imagine your next two dozen Wall Street analyst meetings, and imagine Goldman Sachs looking over your WP7 shipping numbers."

An approach like that and Nokia could cart off not only free OS's, but many hundreds of millions of dollars in all kinds of subsidies.

Or Microsoft could hit the bricks and look for some other sucker licensees.
0 Votes
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No long term vision?
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@HollywoodDog

Fine, I will play along. So Nokia gets the OS for free for several years, walks off with a bundle of cash and manages to build a large WP7 business around WP7. What happens when the deal expires and MS wants to make money on WP7, which I can guarantee will happen eventually? Nokia either pays up or starts building an Android business from scratch.

Maybe not so clever after all?
0 Votes
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Everything has its price...
HollywoodDog 20th Dec 2010
@HollywoodDog ... if Ballmer wants Nokia to agree to exclusivity, to not have a parallel product development project with Android or others, that would have its price. If I were Noka, I'd prefer development in all the big smartphone OS's, and I'd like to take such money out of Microsoft as to pay for all of it. That deal is probably possible.

I agree with you, MS guaranteed 'wants' to make money on WP7. Whether they will ever do so is immaterial. Their 'want' has a fire under them to get as many WP7 phones out in the world as humanly possible. And Ballmer has tens of billions of dollars just sitting around.

If Ballmer is willing to lose six billion dollars in online ventures (and smile about it), then he's willing to lose billions on WP7.

He doesn't give a damn how much any of it costs. It's not his money anyway, and if it totally fails, by that time he'll be gone anyway.
@Economister

There's one thing Nokia is famous for - apart form selling lots of dumb and semismart phones - it's has the most hated UI. Trying to use any Nokia phone is frustrating at best.

WP7 could change all that immediately - just look at the screen on the Nokia phone above - unreadable to anyone over 40 without glasses and a magnifying glass and looks like it was designed by 14 year old boys with ADD.

Please Nokia, run to MS and beg them.
While Android is much more popular than Symbian, almost a sure bet for Nokia in terms of marketing, and similar enough to the Simbian OS to make a transition easy; Windows Phone 7 is none of those things and risky to market. Nokia has no reason to trade one under-utilized OS for another...and while it's easy to say "more platforms, more options"; Nokia has to be wondering if they can even sell enough Win Phone 7 phones to warrant the cost of marketing the OS in the first place. Especially with the failure of the Kin.

Fortunately, Microsoft has a long history of paying these companies off to get them to try the products anyway. But that's all the more reason for them to hold out.
@Socratesfoot
You forget that since Android has a big market share, Google couldn't care less about Nokia. Microsoft who want market share would help Nokia as much as possible.
@day2die: You mean like they did with PlaysForSure ?
@Socratesfoot

"While Android is much more popular than Symbian"

Except in silly little things like 'sales' and 'market share'.
@Socratesfoot
where does Kin come into picture? You have absolutely no logic in your argument. Kin was not a smart phone. Yeah microsoft pays companies huh ?? how about google paying 100 million to apple to let google search be default on Iphone???
If a noob like you can think dont you think all the smart people at nokia might have thought about pros and cons??? Keep trolling...
@Socratesfoot Sorry if you think Microsoft's 700,000 units sold is a small number think again. If you think Microsoft's marketplace of 5,000 apps in the first 60 days is insignificant think again. It's currently outpacing Google's Android.
0 Votes
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But...
rockroars 20th Dec 2010
Nokia has Ovi Store which most of the cell phone manufacturers don't. Not sure why they would want to give away the control to MS. If Nokia and MS can agree on revenue sharing over the app store sales, this might work.
0 Votes
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Wrong CEO
curph Updated - 20th Dec 2010
If true it would mean that Nokia picked the wrong CEO. At this point the Windows Phone cannot be called a success. Maybe in the future but not right now. Why would Nokia align itself with an also-ran? The only answer is a lack of creative vision on the part of the new CEO. Trying to grab on to Microsoft? Really? Is that the best he can do?
0 Votes
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Why not?
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@curph

Help MS with WP7, sink Nokia, and then move back to MS.

Not a bad plan wink
@curph

Even I was wondering the same. Either Nokia is in much deeper mess than any of us could comprehend, or the CEO is a plain MS proxy sent to seal the tie up. wink

Such a alliance would benefit MS more than Nokia.
0 Votes
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Also-Ran?
John Zern 20th Dec 2010
@curph, maybe you miss the bigger picture: Android phone competition between vendors is going to be a even more cut-throat come 2011, whay jump on an OS that'll be fighting a race to the bottom.

Maybe they need to offer something different then "just another Android phone"?.
0 Votes
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And have.....
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@John Zern

MS squeeze the life out of you if you succeed? Just look at the PC business. Who is making the money, MS or the HW companies?

And why will a smart phone business be different if MS gets its way?
@John Zern

Not really. Google is pushing with each release to make each phone set more identical and less fragmented than before. Early releases of Android were highly fragmented because the APIs were not there to support everything the vendors wanted to put on; however, Google is doing a great job of making those APIs available so that there is less and less fragmentation. It's platform maturity and is well underway.
0 Votes
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Android is becoming a bit fragmented, to the point that people are becoming less happy with it.
I have to deal with the cell phones at out company, and what I can tell you is that the ones that don't complain are the WM6.5 and iPhone users: their phones work.
They send and receive emails easilly, make calls, ect.

The Android users are not a happy lot as a whole as the differences between phone/OS version combinations mean that the phones don't do all the same things. I have phones that won't send, phones that receive this email account but not that, some configure this way, others that way, and some need to be rebooted.
Many of these users will be switching to something else.
Unless Google can get Android together again in one boat, I can't see lots of people rushing out to get it, especially based on word of mouth.
@John Zern

That is not the case. Android is open and manufacturers can and do customize the OS to differentiate and provide value-add to the Android OS. Samsung phones look different to HTC phones and they both look different to Sony phones, etc. Each phone manufacturer can carve a niche and provide value via software and hardware.

Manufacturers aren't allowed to do this with WP7 so every phone is a clone of every other WP apart from slight differences in hardware, and it will be a race to the bottom as pricing is the only real differentiator.

Nokia, like Apple, currently have the advantage of controlling the hardware, and the OS, and the services infrastructure. If Nokia foolishly gave up their investments in Symbian and Meego they would be at the mercy of a 3rd party both for the OS and the App/Music/Ringtone/News/etc services which are a major source of revenue.

WP7 is unproven and according to circumstantial evidence from phone retailers (as MS is deathly quiet about sales figures) it is not selling well at all. MS has been reporting great Kinnect sales figures, but is keeping quiet about WP7 sales, and is already resorting to BOGOF deals and bundling free XBOX 360s to generate sales. Why would Nokia want to get involved in that?
0 Votes
+ -
we have unhappy Android owners, regardless of who make changes or "adds value" to the underlying OS.

And sales figures don't equate how good a phone OS is (or isn't). Will sales rise once WP7 is on Verizon? (Seriouslly, you have WP7 on AT&T and a few of the smaller carriers in the US, so like initial Android sales, I'll wait on sales figures.)
@Nickkuk
Microsoft's deal making has been done by Google and Android... it is no different (Google did the Amazon thing as well), alas, Microsoft has a stronger consumer connection point currently with Xbox and Kinect.

Sure... all the phones look different and this may seem intriguing for OEMers to separate themselves, however, they have alienated their clients in doing so. The solution for OEMers leads to consumers buying more phones to take advantage of different software features instead of updating the OS. When the update DOES come the Carrier controls the golden wand of upgrade/update.

It has already been proven that at least 700,000 WP7 devices are in circulation with that number an estimate based on connection points. There are 5,000 applications in the marketplace outpacing Android's rate of accent.

I find it interesting how most people start reading one or two major bias reports and think they know everything about WP7... do your research. It may be young but it is designed better and implemented better. Google is down the rats nest and they'll soon be jumping on the control bandwagon. Only issue is Google honestly doesn't give a flying you know what about their platform - they want to do one thing and one thing only - increase their ad revenues and their false flag of holding down the fort with their devices with a shotty and fragmented strategy is a testament to that.
@curph - I love all of the "expert" phone people and CEO and true worldwide market analysts we have here. It's very, very entertaining.
0 Votes
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Feel free ......
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@ItsTheBottomLine

to enlighten us with your knowledge and experience, instead of just taking a cheap shot, making yourself look like an idiot.

It is of course possible that we are all just too stupid to understand. sad
@curph
Which is why it's so brilliant: because of small WP7 market share, Nokia would get a huge bargaining power against Microsoft.
0 Votes
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Yes, until......
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@day2die

that is no longer the case. Then what? MS has a LONG history of screwing everybody eventually, for its own benefit.
@curph
This is starting to sound like a broken record! You ABM'ERS hate Microsoft that much??? Listen, you don't buy stock in a company after its stock has matured. Likewise, You don't try to form a partnership after the partner has become successful. The partner probably will tell you to take a hike! Most of you people must have never run a business, or taken a business class. Please grow up!
0 Votes
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Worth giving a shot
rockroars 20th Dec 2010
The alliance will allow Nokia to re-enter American Markets with greater push. Also the partnership will give both Nokia & MS the confidence to focus on the product, than worry so much about strategy. Moreover developers will be reassured of WP7 as a platform and its stability.
--
It wouldn't take much time to switch platforms if Nokia intends to. This collaboration is worth giving a shot.
@rockroars If entering American markets is the plan then WP7 is NOT the way to go. We are not a phone driven tech market yet to the degree of Europe or China and unlike these markets people tend to only migrate to new phones when plan renewals come up. For most of us that is around the holidays on a two to three year cycle. For many on AT&T's network that cycle started with an iPhone. If you're a Verizon customer it started with the release of the Blackberry Storm or the NEXUS One. MS missed the last 3 year cycle and waiting for plans to renew probably won't be a big seller in the US for about 2 and a half years assuming they can get into the market at all.
@Socratesfoot

One correction, outside US, migration to new phone is not connected to plans, as THERE IS NO PLAN. People buy a phone, and a SIM, separately, they are not tied up together, at least in the GSM area.
0 Votes
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Hardware matters
sharkboyjohn 20th Dec 2010
I have been playing with a few phones lately including iPhone, Android, Blackberry and WinPhone7. My main observation is that hardware matters. If Nokia is to succeed, they need hardware that differentiates it self from all of the Android crowd. You need to be able to put it side by side with an iPhone and have your product outshine. No one is doing this today. The closest to it is Samsung but they still fall short.

WinPhone 7 needs more wow. They also need to open it up and make it easier to port Open GL based apps to the platform. Maybe just support OpenGL.
0 Votes
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Supporting Open GL
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@sharkboyjohn

Isn't that a hangin' offense at MS? wink
What the hell happened to MeeGo? Or is this article a pipe dream because the author can't stomach linux unless it's tightly wrapped in a VM?
@prof.ebral MeeGo isn't proven either. And Nokia will have those devices too. My hunch is that Intel will be the true champion of MeeGo though. The biggest thing for me is that Nokia needs some OS answer. WP7 may be part of the equation.
@Larry Dignan

They already have MeeGo out. And they have Symbian. What more do they need? WP7 certainly is not it - it's got less market share than MeeGo!

Remember, Nokia is one of the big titans in the Mobile Phone OS space with Symbian - which has far more installations than iPhone+Android+WP7 combined!
The two biggest OS's are Android and iOS at this point. WP7 went off with a dud. They are too embaressed to annouce the sales volume. Nokia is too big to sell a dozen Next-of-Kins. Android is the only alternative.
@LarsDennert
"The two biggest OS's are Android and iOS at this point."

Worldwide Mobile OS market share for 2010 Q3:
Symbian - 37%
Android - 25%
Apple - 17%
RIM - 15%

When talking about Nokia, it is important to take the world market, not US market. Of course Symbian is losing share, but technically it still the biggest one. And with Symbian ^3, the downward movement is expected to slow down.
@rdsm

Symbian is a titan even in the US Market, at least historically. However, Android is the main market leader with the largest growth - namely b/c Apple is the only producer of phones with iOS so there is limited growth potential.
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You made me laugh
Economister 20th Dec 2010
@LarsDennert

"Next-of-Kin"? That is funny and clever.
Great! !! thanks for sharing this information to us!
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