Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Nokia's Lumia Windows Phone moment of truth: Will consumers 'have to have them?'

By | October 26, 2011, 3:02am PDT

Summary: The stakes are high for Nokia and this Lumia launch and its fate rests with that 25-year-old global citizen who has to decide whether she wants a world filled with Windows Phone tiles

Nokia CEO Stephen Elop launched the company’s Lumia devices—designed to put the smartphone maker back on track—and said “there is still some adventure ahead of us.” He’s not kidding. How this adventure plays out will largely depend on a 25-year-old consumer that Nokia hopes will be filled with gadget lust.

Nokia's fate depends on your emotional attachment to this device.

Indeed, Nokia’s launch is just the beginning and it’s unclear if the company’s plan to “fill the world with tiles” will pay off. Structurally, Nokia hit its key themes.

  • The Lumia 700 and 800 will hit the market in November.
  • The devices will roll out in a global blitzkrieg that starts in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK in November, fans out to Hong Kong, India, Russia, Singapore and Taiwan by the end of the year and then lands in the U.S. in early 2012. Lumia devices will support WCDMA, HSPA and LTE and CDMA in “specific local markets” likely to be the U.S.
  • Carrier and retail support will be huge.

Add it up and Nokia proved it could move quickly, partner well with Microsoft to get a product out the door and launch devices designed to stem a market share slide. Welcome to the starting line Nokia.

Elop in his keynote at Nokia World in London admitted the fun is just beginning (live blog, Nokia statement, Techmeme). “Today is just the beginning of our new adventure,” said Elop. “We will upgrade an ordinary moment into an exciting one.”

Also: Nokia’s first Windows Phones: What’s there, what’s not | CNET: Nokia debuts Lumia 800, 710, first Windows Phone handsets | Nokia is back in the smartphone game…sort of

The highlight of the keynote really came from Steven Overman, vice president of marketing creation for Nokia. He outlined how Nokia will target 25 year olds who don’t remember a time when information wasn’t at their fingertips. Overman’s breathless soundbites go like this:

  • “The amazing every day.”
  • “Luscious.”
  • “Butter smooth UI.”
  • “We’ll fill the world with tiles”
  • “Amazing moments.”

Credit: Stephen Shankland, CNET News

Credit: Stephen Shankland, CNET News

According to Overman, this marketing nirvana will “be a journey to the moment of truth” when the consumer will get to a store experience and “point of sale furniture” that will close the Nokia Lumia deal. “At that moment of truth decisions are emotional,” gushed Overman.

Overman’s part of the keynote was a bit much for breakfast—at least on East Coast time in the U.S.—but that point-of-sale experience will make or break Nokia’s Windows Phone plans. The devices look sharp, but Nokia’s Lumia phones won’t be the cool kids on the block. That space is occupied by Apple’s iPhone. Meanwhile Android has its own distribution army that can match Nokia’s now.

In the end, Nokia’s fate rests with that target demographic. That smartphone buyer will have to be filled with gadget lust, drool over the Lumia and perhaps overcome the fact that Nokia has had a rough few years leading up to this moment. I see potential for gadget lust, but curiosity about the Lumia doesn’t get me to the point where I’m handing over my credit card.

My next big question for Nokia’s Lumia: Will I wait for it when my contract is up in December? I need to see more, but my personal calculus merely highlight the hurdles ahead of Nokia and its Lumia phones. Nokia needs a hit.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note:

“While Nokia is optimistic about its new OS strategy, there is no certainty that it can launch compelling new Windows Phone devices in 12 months. The longer it takes to launch a successful device, the harder it will be to create the necessary ecosystem.”

Simply put, the stakes are high for Nokia and this Lumia launch and its fate rests with that 25-year-old global citizen who has to decide whether she wants a world filled with Windows Phone tiles.

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Topics

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: Nokia's Lumia Windows Phone moment of truth: Will consumers 'have to have them?'
Rick_Kl 30th Nov
@wellcraft19 Elop is a typical Microsoft mid-level manager. No imagination, vision, or drive. When he moved over to Nokia, his first act was to try and hitch Nokia 100% to the whims of his Boss Steve Ballmer.
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Just seen it.
arnold123 Updated - 26th Oct
I don't want it..

I saw the "sony ericsson experia arc s" and wanted it. The motorola Atrix made me dream of owning one..

These nokia phones evoke absolutely no emotion and the windows phone app is just as bland.
@arnold123

If Mr Arnold123 doen't like it, then it must be a winner!
@Blogsworth

Nokia unveiled the FAILPHONE 800. Goodby Nokia, goodby Windows FAIL Phone 7.x .....
i want it..

I saw the "sony ericsson experia arc s" and don't want it. The motorola Atrix made me have nightmares...

These nokia phones evoke emotions and the windows phone apps are just as exciting.
The look boring! They can never compete with iPhone & galaxy. They are far a head in race.
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Master Joe Says...Exactly
MasterJoe 26th Oct
@frhamid Why would you want something that is extremely functional, easy to use, simple, fast, and soon to be unified with the desktop OS, when you could have a Marketplace riddled with malware, or a locked down experience which has 10 buyers because fo brand for every 1 buyer who bought it because it was actually the best fit for them? I totally see your point. Good job.

--Master Joe
@MasterJoe You do know that the Windows Phone marketplace and Windows Phone ecosystem is just as "locked down" as iOS right? And it's simply a matter of time before the vulnerabilites are exploited in WP7... just because they have not been yet does not mean they do not exist and cannot be found. Also there is the whole "Big Brother Microsoft" is watching... which is what tuned me off of the WP7 platform.

You were saying?
@Pete "athynz" Athens just because they have not been yet does not mean they do not exist and cannot be found. Also there is the whole "Big Brother Microsoft" is watching... which is what tuned me off of the WP7 platform.

I'm sorry, were you talking about Apple or MS in that little rant... I get so confused since they're about the same.
@Badgered

I'm sorry, were you talking about Apple or MS in that little rant... I get so confused since they're about the same.

I was referring to WP7 but it could apply to iOS as well as there is NO perfect OS out there.
@frhamid iPhone = static row of icons. How is that less boring than live tiles?

Seems to be the new party piece coming from ABMers these days.
@jhughesy @frhamid iPhone = static row of icons. How is that less boring than live tiles?

Seems to be the new party piece coming from ABMers these days.


You do mean that is the standard B.S. line coming from the NBMers? Large bland Icons are in fact more boring than Icons that readily Identify the App. When the Icons all look the same, you are forced to read the text, which makes getting access to said app slower.
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Cool?
rhonin 26th Oct
iPhone was school cool a couple years back..
Now it's Android ( talking SoCal).
Nokia if it has a slick design and cool colors could be the next "cool" phone device...
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For the non-techy
gtvr 26th Oct
It's going to get lost in a sea of not-iPhones.

Honestly, someone who doesn't read tech articles will have heard of the iPhone, and maybe Android. Where's the compelling story that will make them walk past those to get to this?
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Master Joe Says...Marketing
MasterJoe 26th Oct
@gtvr That's what marketing is for. It is up to Nokia (and Microsoft) to get the word out about this phone, and Windows Phone in general. If it weren't for marketing, neither iPhone nor Android would have the kind of recognition that they have, just like any other popular product that comes out. If there were no Zoo-zoo pets commercials a couple of years ago, it wouldn't have been the #1 Christmas list item. This is no different.

--Master Joe
@MasterJoe Only one little flaw in your theory. Microsoft has spent more in advertising on Windows mobile phones than Apple spent on advertising period. Just because the ads were not effective, does not mean the ads were not run.
@gtvr It look sexy, thats what!
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cheap sell...
sdhi 26th Oct
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dfrtyewre
sdhi 26th Oct
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Those are very uninspiring. Combine that with the UI nightmare that is Windows Phone and you have a failure.
@itguy10 Combine that with the UI nightmare that is Windows Phone and you have a failure.

You've tried WP7 then? Because from the few people I know who actually tried it... they bought them, and are very pleased they did. Granted, not many people I know walked past the iPhone to try anything else.
@Badgered I tried one out briefly when I was shopping for an upgrade to my iPhone 3G and it was a pre-mango device. I have to say I was not impressed then but I do admit to a bias towards iOS and bought an iPhone 4. When I replaced my work BB I had considered a WP7 device but I went for an Android based device because I was more comfortable with that than the WP7.

Some of us are not blinded by any sort of "RDF" that Apple is supposedly emitting.
@Pete "athynz" Athens

Fortunately (or Unfortunately) I have 8 months left on my BB contract, so I'll wait and what's new by then. I've seen and used the iPhone and Samsung Galaxy S, which are both nice, but I'm intrigued by WP7. Who knows, maybe WP8 will be out by then and I'll have a real decision to make.
@itguy10
Well I seem to enjoy using it every day and don't long for the old school UI of iOS and Android.
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RE: Nokia's Lumia Windows Phone moment of truth: Will consumers 'have to have them?'
LoverockDavidson_-24231404894599612871915491754222 26th Oct
There is no phone that anyone "has to have." There are phones that people want though and I see this Nokia phone as being wanted. Its got a very nice design on the hardware and a beautiful OS running on it. The world of tiles is just one a user needs to access their information quickly and on the fly.
Marketing hyperbole aside, is it different enough or does it offer more than current smartphones already entrenched in the marketplace? From the specs vs. iOS and Android, it appears to be a little behind already: 5 megapixel camera and 720p HD vs. 8 megapixel camera and 1080p HD. Does the tiling provide a better user experience or does it just mean that you have to scroll through more screens to get to the app that you want? I don't think it can be sold purely on the basis of "coolness" or colors.

It's not like the "25 year old" doesn't already have a multi-touch device. Is this enough to make them switch? At first glance, I'm skeptical.
@ppgreat@... 5 megapixel camera and 720p HD vs. 8 megapixel camera and 1080p HD.

The Lumia 800 does have an 8mp camera.

That being said, the lack of a front facing camera and small internal memory - I do see as a problem.
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It's all about change
hughtrblc 26th Oct
I've tried iOS and Android before and both are amazing but they look alike in some ways. What's nice about WP7 is that it offers a different experience and from what i saw, it has some good features in it, and -that's just my opinion- WP7 looks better.
I walked past an Apple store in the mall on Sunday and saw a line of 45-55 year-old zombies, presumably there to get their new iPhone. IPhone is or will soon be dead for the 25-year-old crowd. Nokia has a shot.
@lippidp

I was just about to type an "are you crazy?" response. Then I thought about the people I know buying new phones. The majority of them are 40+ and buying iPhones. The 25 ish people are mostly buying Android devices. I thought you were nuts... now I'm not so sure.
for their teenagers and tweens and "other" age children. Children and teenagers don't normally go to a phone store to make a $200-$1000 purchase of a phone with a service plan.

Having said that, I do agree that the iPhone and Android phones may be getting too stale to appeal to the younger crowd.
I waited on Nokia's lineup, eagerly. But there's no expandable storage, which for me is a deal-breaker. My photos and music already exceed the 16 GB capacity of the phone. I'm also a bit disappointed there's no front-facing camera. Oh, and no U.S. release date. And I won't get into the "it's still single core", cause I know the fans will tell me it runs as fast as Android dual-core. Fine. But what will you say in April when the dual-core Win 7 phones appear? Will you say, "wow, that second core is sure a waste!"?
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Elop is no Jobs
wellcraft19 Updated - 26th Oct
There are many great phones out there, aside the iPhone (certainly many with much better radios), but there are still none that triggers such a "want" as the iPhones.

Elop has to turn into more of a visionary than a pretty dry corporate CEO to create the cult that is needed to create the demand that is needed to save Nokia.

And, unless Mango changed it, WP7 has a horrible integration with Windows PC. Why can't I group and sync my Outlook contacts (like I can via iTunes) and have them show on the phone? I have no interest in uploading them to hotmail or live.com.
@wellcraft19 Elop is a typical Microsoft mid-level manager. No imagination, vision, or drive. When he moved over to Nokia, his first act was to try and hitch Nokia 100% to the whims of his Boss Steve Ballmer.
I'll buy only if this phone, or rather the Mango, has multi-lingual input like iPhone.
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500 dollars?
chuggie 26th Oct
ha
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Microsoft did the work on the software end by creating a surprisingly pleasant to use mobile software OS, even it does feel like another update or two away from being "there".

And Nokia did its job on the hardware front by creating a sexy looking device.

Now the test, via sales, marketing, and the retail channel, is if they can convince consumers to bite. That is an open question, as we all know, most haven't so far.
On the marketing front, Microsoft's message has been abysmal; they don't seem to "get" the non-enterprise retail customer.

We'll see how Nokia fares, I guess.
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I loved my Nokia N900.
Teddifish 27th Oct
If this is as good or better as that was, I want!
Problem is, no one cares. If ANYONE cared, NokiaSoft would be announcing deals with the U.S. telcos yesterday.

The OEMs don't care because they're either too distracted with Android or rolling their own OS. That's why MS had to pay off Nokia to use WM7. No one was going to invest serious effort in WM7 without a serious payoff.

The telcos don't care because WM7 simply has no cachet to bring in new subscribers, so why pay $15 for a license when Android is "free."

The consumers don't care because they are all enamored with iPhones and Droids and Galaxies and after 200 million iDevices and 150 million Android devices, running Excel spreadsheet on your mobile device doesn't seem that important anymore.

The developers don't care because they're too busy making money off the iOS app store or the multiple Android app stores. Or licking their chops for the Amazon Fire app store.

And BTW, selling WM7 licenses at $8 - $15 is a complete dead end without massive market-share. It is completely different from selling $50 - $150 Windows PC licenses in a virtual monopoly. In their best year, MS sold around 20 million WinMo licenses. That's a pittance. Especially when Apple's ASP is above >$500 with 40% margins.

MS (and Intel) simply assumed that their desktop monopoly would give them a lock on the future mobile market because everyone knows you absolutely can't do anything useful without Intel chips and Office. So they never addressed the fundamental flaws in their mobile OS and hardware. But Apple/ARM/Android completely outflanked them and exposed their lazy strategy.
How do you target a 25 year old with a UI designed for a teenage girl? Microsoft???s Metro UI is a revised version of the Kin, which was marketed at teenage girl that love Facebook, and twitter? While there is nothing wrong with catering to teenage girls, I would not bet my company on it.

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