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RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?

By | August 16, 2011, 6:23am PDT

Summary: Surprise! Google’s Motorola Mobility purchase and new products make RIM look much better than it did just a week ago.

Research in Motion’s latest BlackBerry devices have landed and the latest events in the wireless industry—notably Google’s acquisition of Motorola—have helped the company’s standing in short order.

First, BlackBerry has its long-awaited new product cycle rolling. ZDNet’s Matthew Miller gives the latest BlackBerry devices—based on BlackBerry OS 7—a thumbs up and calls the line-up RIM’s best effort. What about those QNX-based superphones that will give the BlackBerry 7 devices a short shelf life? Miller argues that the latest devices will be a good choice for at least a year.

CNET also gave the latest BlackBerry Torch on Sprint a solid review, but was mixed on the AT&T version.


Much needed product cycles aside, the real gain for RIM may come from disruption in the Android market. Google acquired Motorola for $12.5 billion in a deal that locks down patent protection for Android, but could alienate HTC and Samsung in the long run. Google said it will run Motorola independently and keep Android open source, but the devil will be in the details (see CNET News roundup).

Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu said that RIM can benefit from the Google-Motorola deal. Why? First, RIM becomes a lot more valuable as an acquisition target. Microsoft and HP would be potential buyers. However, Microsoft’s acquisition of RIM would be a long shot given a partnership with Nokia.

Wu said in a research note

We believe RIM could benefit from potential disruption in the Android ecosystem as Google integrates its acquisition of Motorola Mobility and there could be a potential eruption of a civil war. In addition, from our conversations with carriers, they would love to see a stronger No. 3 supplier in mobile phones. And the reason is that many of them are growing concerned with the growing dominance of Google and Apple. We believe Windows Phone will benefit as well but RIM is arguably in a stronger position given its independence and incumbent position as the No. 3 player.

National Bank Financial also upgraded shares of RIM because the company is a takeover target and has a treasure trove of patents.

Wu still has his reservations about RIM’s product cycle as well as transitions from the BlackBerry 7 operating system to QNX next year. Toss in concerns about bill of materials for RIM and there are significant questions.

Nevertheless, the ball seems to be bouncing RIM’s way a bit. If the new BlackBerry devices get any traction, RIM’s standing will improve dramatically from just a few weeks ago.

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Topics

Google Inc., Research In Motion Ltd., RIM BlackBerry, Motorola Inc., Mobile Security, Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Nagelstudio in Hamburg 28th Nov
@Bodazapha i think so too. http://www.nagelstudiohamburg.net/galerie.html
View in thread
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
wkulecz 16th Aug
"the company is a takeover target and has a treasure trove of patents"

Didn't they lose big time to a patent troll a while back?
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
jgm@... 16th Aug
@wkulecz Unless RIM had a patent on patent trolling, you can't use other patents to protect yourself from patent trolls.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
MuleHeadJoe 16th Aug
@jgm@... actually, having your own portfolio of patents DOES protect you from patent trolling. Due to the gross incompetence (or willful malfeasance?) of the US Patent Office, multiple patents are regularly granted to different parties for the same thing, especially software patents. If the patent troll decides to attack saying you are violating their patent XYZ, if you have a deep-enough patent bench, you stand a good chance of being able to counter-attack with 'well we have patent QRS which your patent violates, so we'll sue you!' ... that's how the game is currently being played. So again, you actually CAN use other patents to protect yourself from patent trolls. It shouldn't be that way, but the US Patent Office is grossly incompetent.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
BillDem 17th Aug
@Tivolier@... Actually, patents don't protect you from patent trolls. They protect you from other patent holders who actually make products. Then you swap patent licensing deals with the other company by threatening their products with your own patents. Patent trolls don't actually make or sell anything. They just buy and hold patents. When a patent troll sues, they don't have to worry about any of their products violating the patents of others, because they don't have any products. So, you can't threaten their products with your own patents.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
jlt0x 18th Aug
RIM should strongly consider using the Android OS with the RIM messaging service as an app accessible via the OS. RIM needs more touchscreen smartphones, smartphones with keyboard sliders, and continue to make the legacy candybar-style phones (Bold, Curve).
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This is good news for everyone!
James Quinn 16th Aug
We need more competition to make the mobility market interesting and a healthy RIM will be a big step in the right direction I think:)

Pagan jim
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Yeah, but RIM is a 300lb chain smoker.
matthew_maurice 16th Aug
@James Quinn That company is a walking corpse. Inertia will carry them on for another couple of years, until someone picks them up for a song to get their IP. Their problem is that they've taken "dance with the girl that brung ya" to the extreme. The fact is that RIM doesn't know anything about smartphones, they only know about Blackberries.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
SinfoCOMAR 16th Aug
@matthew_maurice RIM "RIM doesn't know anything about smartphones" JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAAJA
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Which planet have you landed form?
johnmckay Updated - 16th Aug
@matthew_maurice

I'm sick of reading this rubbish from trolls and folk ignorant of anything they dont own. Get a life and let others work with what they have. FYI they have the most secure platform, not for criminals but for anyone. They DO need to get the product lineup sorted and get rid of the overlap in devices but to suggest a 'walking corpse' is just so utterly stupid.

I have faith in most companies/products to survive, even new ones like HP webos. Not because they deliver more than xxx but because the market is changing so fast, so much. Open, but secure, access to corporate data is going to be MEGA in the next 18 months. Forget your piddling/trifling needs of a 50p app..... that's of no interest to anybody. We're looking at MILLIONS of folk accessing corporate world from ANY handheld/mobile device they like. Get your head round that, and forget the penny apps. Look at the big picture. Plenty of scope for everyone to choose what works for them. And it's very nearly here!
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
BillDem 17th Aug
@matthew_maurice If Apple increases the security of the iPhone to match the Blackberry, then RIM will indeed be in trouble. Right now, the leaders at RIM are only treading water while struggling to sort out the best direction to swim. If they finally focus their vision, they could easily make the world's most amazing comeback simply because of their enterprise entrenchment. Time will tell.
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Rim rebounding? Apple doesnt think so.
Bodazapha 16th Aug
Waterloo is one of the smallest Canadian cities in which Apple has opened a store, but you wouldn?t know it from its opening day lineup.

More than 200 people waited in line Saturday morning for the official opening of the company?s newest Canadian store in Waterloo, located in Conestoga Mall, just a 10-minute drive from RIM headquarters.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Bates_ 16th Aug
@Bodazapha So what? People don't go to the RIM HQ to buy BB's do they? It's a moot point.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Fletchguy 16th Aug
@Bodazapha
Lol 200 idiots showed up even in that little town. Its like bugs to a azapper light they see their friends get killed but still flock to the light without using their brains lol
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
sandeep.splash 16th Aug
@Fletchguy very good analogy and it aptly fits Apple.
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I like that!
johnmckay 16th Aug
@Fletchguy

I'm gonna use that.. unless you've patented it first of course happy
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
deusexmachina  17th Aug
@Fletchguy

Your posting history makes it quite clear that you are not one to talk about not using one's brain.

@sandeep.splash

Based on what evidence, pray tell? I suspect that one could make a far better claim of lemming status to the users of the OS with 89% of the market. Especially since the VAST majority of iPhone and iPod owners are Windows users, your point is both without foundation, and dumb.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Nagelstudio in Hamburg 28th Nov
@Bodazapha i think so too. http://www.nagelstudiohamburg.net/galerie.html
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
jeft2k@... 16th Aug
No 4g, is there a browser fix? I'm still waiting on my 8900 to run some flash crap it can't get through....
BBerry messenger = who cares, and wvga? It's a 10 months ago phone, and it loses the thing I love most about my 8900, the keyboard.
BBerry app world? ahem.
Why is it better than the universally despised Storm?
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Doctor Demento 16th Aug
@jeft2k@...

The lack of Flash support for Blackberries is the fault of Adobe, not RIM. Adobe has said that they are 'working on' Flash player for Blackberry for the last 5 years, and appear to have made zero progress. RIM isn't doing anything to block it, Adobe is simply inept.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
xSteven777x 16th Aug
@Doctor Demento Probably because they realize developing flash for blackberry is a waste of time and a dead end?
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Champ_Kind 16th Aug
@jeft2k@... My wife's Bold passes the ACID3 test with flying colors. That, in and of itself, it a major accomplishment on Blackberry's part, since her previous phone couldn't even load the page.
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How long you had the 8900?
johnmckay 16th Aug
@jeft2k@...

It was never one of my favourites and I've long since said they need to kill the crud and deliver what folk want.

You bought a device that was never going to delier what you want. YOU should have bought a BB Torch.

Sadly.. and I mean this. So long as folk buy the low end tosh RIM will keep selling it. They need to build on the Torch, maybe keep a low end device (say an 8520) and ditch the rest. Who wants to choose from a plethora of specs they dont undertsand fully. Just deliver a touchscreen phone, and a half decent phone; each with decent battery life.

I wouldnt buy an 8900, I wouldn't buy a 9780 (though I had a work 9700 for a while) but I would think about the torch for my kids etc.

Everyone stop buying the lowend rubbish and RIM will move on... trust me!
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
redhaven 16th Aug
I am an Android guy but i like these phones.

The problem here is the same with the original Torch. There is just nothing that exciting about them. The specs are ok, the OS looks ok etc. Maybe that is enough for companies to continue to buy. The IT gods are a fickle group.

Also, I never use my front facing camera but it seems like such a natural for these phones if they are trying to convince a CIO or CEO to buy.
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Torch.... maybe OK?????
johnmckay 16th Aug
@redhaven

You try texting or emailing from a taxi on a touchscreen. HoHoHo... The Torch 'shines' with its proper keyboard, proper screen... what more could I ask?

And dont say an iphone cos i have two that last a day on a charge or my Torch 2 days minimum. That said my HTC wildfire is beating the lot at 4 days currently. the 1 day on an iphone is GARBAGE !
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Ronin916 Updated - 16th Aug
Hold on....does it actually say "Miller argues that the latest devices will be a good choice for at least a year."?

How does that make any sense? All contracts run two years, so are you going to buy one of these and then upgrade again out of contract when the new "Super Phones" come out?

Really? I mean.....really?
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Chill out.
Cayble 16th Aug
@Ronin916
All contracts run 2 years; so what.

You must be forgetting that the vast number of people who purchase smartphones are not technophiles and have little to no idea about significant upcoming product releases until the news hits mainstream media. Most people don't care THAT much that they will put off something like a smartphone purchase for a whole year just because they have heard there will be something a little better out by then.

In case you haven't noticed, the one thing the public does seem to know in rather generic terms is that when it comes to technology, there is always something bigger, better, newer coming out in a year. Much of the public has at least come to realize that there is often little sense putting off a purchase such as this for an extended period of time waiting for the "new thing" because it often results in little more then a vicious circle.

The fact is, there are many many people who simply cannot reasonably put off a new cell phone purchase for any significant length of time. What little impact the fact that RIM phones will have QNX next year will be an unlikely factor in determining if RIM can make some good money off this current crop of phones.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Franciscus101 16th Aug
@Ronin916 Not all contracts run for at least two years. You can get 1 year contracts, at least here in the country where RIM is Headquartered. Many also use it as a pay as you go type phone.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
trm1945 Updated - 16th Aug
This is getting like a tired old TV show with ZDnet playing the part of Lassie.
"Woof, woof"
What's that Lassie. Rim's fallen down a well and can't get out?
"Woof"
And time's up for them?
"Woof, woof, woof."
You think that they might circumvent disaster this time with their new products? Oh Lassie, you're such a good dog!
"Woof"
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Fletchguy 16th Aug
@trm1945
Lol ok that was funny
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Mosblest 16th Aug
@trm1945 throw 'em a bone already!
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
xSteven777x 16th Aug
Will you please get a grip. There is no rebound brewing, nobody wants a blackberry except people that already own one, and half of those people have defected to other platforms. Anyone with a brain knows that blackberry = junk. If you think otherwise, you need to educate yourself. Point blank period.
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Signs of Rebound Brewing? Nope.
cbstryker 16th Aug
I received an email from them saying that as of August 26th (may have been 25th, I deleted it) all of their certifications will be indefinitely discontinued.

So.... no, no rebounds here. Basically what that tells me is that Blackberry certifications are now irrelevant.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
rich.b 16th Aug
I agree with this article but zdnet your credibility is crap. I've read nothing but numerous articles speculating the apocolypic doom of RIM. The BB9900 is sweet, especially if you don't enjoy using iphones. You should hire journalists that don't make stuff up. I go to CNN for sensationalism, I come here for information.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
facebook@... 16th Aug
@rich.b
"I go to CNN for sensationalism, I come here for information. "

I know of at least two things that you are doing wrong.
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Why are you here?
adornoe@... 16th Aug
wink
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It's not a rebound if your major value is as a take-over target.
matthew_maurice 16th Aug
No one with a CFO who's taken an MBA class would touch RIM with a 10 foot pole. At least not until they lose another 10% of their market cap, in other words until their next results call.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Mosblest 16th Aug
What if Apple bought them and made some specialized feature phones and business related phones using a iOS hybrid and just sell QNX?
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
tech_ed@... 16th Aug
Rim's strength is the Enterprise Servers. From an administrative standpoint, you can't beat the BlackBerry devices. The granularity of management using the BES is lightyears ahead of anybody else. You want to disable one person's phone from taking pictures? Done, just click on the checkbox in the BES. Want to disable a group's ability to download new apps? Or allow a group to only download a list of approved apps? Done, click a checkbox in BES. These things can be turned on or off on a whim. No other phone can be controlled in this way by an administration team...
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One way to remove them from being a takeover target is to have
adornoe@... 16th Aug
things like the following happen:

National Bank Financial also upgraded shares of RIM because the company is a takeover target and has a treasure trove of patents.

Upgrading shares and making the company stock rise in value just means that, the company would become a more expensive acquisition target. When there are still other targets, just as valuable or perhaps even more valuable, upgrading RIM's stock would seem to be counterproductive.
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The model has flipped
techboy_z 16th Aug
Used to be the hardware makers would buy out the software company they wanted so badly in order to boost their product. Now, the software makers are buying the hardware companies because the hardware is so cheap and also subsidized in the case of mobile, and startup software companies that really have the goods rocket to large enough size to do the MA before the more old-school hardware companies realize they are in competition and about to be eaten.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
Heenan73 16th Aug
If it's a rebound, it's likely a dead cat bounce - non-geek analysts are arguing that RIM looks increasing isolated, and may be forced into a partnership, or offer itself for sale ... so the share rally (after a long, slow decline) may well be just the stock market lining up for a 63% bonus, like Motorola shareholders got from Google.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
thecatch Updated - 16th Aug
Larry, what happens to Windows in the Mobile, Windows 7 & 8 mobile?

And HP? What about WEB OS? How many operating systems does a company need to own?

What happen to that miracle OS that could scale from a mobile to a mainframe? I guess it's more difficult to accomplish then previously thought.

RIM might be left out in the Cold. Especially if Google's real intentions are to push forward Android on all platforms equally, by playing nice with all & they now sit comfortable with 17,000 patents. There is not profit to be made in selling hardware. Google wanted the patents.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
ejhonda 17th Aug
If BB users are experiencing as many random issues with their current crop of BB apps as I am, I wouldn't count on them remaining in the BB fold. As much as I dislike Apple, the iPhone shines compared to my Bold 9650, where caller ID doesn't work 70% of the time (NOT due to location), sounds stop working, text entry drops characters every so many minutes of usage, freezes and crashes happen on an annoying frequency.
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RE: RIM: Signs of rebound brewing?
JMangotweets 18th Aug
Solid handsets aren't the end of it all in making it big to the market. There are a lot of really good handsets out there that never sell well. One would argue that WP7 is a pretty good platform on solid hardware, but that hasn't helped Microsoft gain substantial sales out of it.

What matters most is whether RIM can start shaking-off its negative reputation amongst consumers and win back its supporters.

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