RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

Summary: Is RIM is rushing its QNX-based handsets to market so they can launch at CES in January and the Mobile World Congress in February?

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Research in Motion has decent BlackBerry OS 7 sell-in to the channel, but the actual sell-through to consumers is "lackluster," according to one Wall Street analyst.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said in a report that RIM is seeing lackluster BlackBerry OS 7 devices and older models aren't selling. Misek made his claims based on Jefferies quarterly handset survey.

Meanwhile, RIM is rushing its QNX-based handsets to market so they can launch at CES in January and the Mobile World Congress in February.

In a research report, Misek said:

We believe RIM management strongly desires to have a QNX phone in time for the Consumer Electronics Show (Jan) and Mobile World Congress (Feb). In an attempt to meet this deadline and to meet guidance of an early 2012 launch, we believe the phone is being rushed and features are being stripped. Most importantly, the integration of BES/BIS email/calendar is proving difficult, and we think a QNX phone without these would be a disaster. Alternatively, RIM might launch an incremental BB OS update (OS 7.5) in H1:12 followed by a full QNX phone in H2.

These moving parts indicate that RIM's fiscal second quarter ending Aug. 31 is probably ok as new BlackBerry devices offset tanking sales of older models. Misek is predicting that RIM will report earnings of 77 cents a share on revenue of $4.4 billion. That's off from Wall Street estimates calling for earnings of 87 cents a share on revenue of $4.5 billion.

In a research report, Misek said that RIM will predict that it will ship 14 million to 15 million units in its fiscal third quarter, but ultimately fall short. He cut his estimate on RIM from hold to underperform.

Amid these moving parts, analysts are torn between hopping on the RIM bandwagon for a quarter or so and panning the company's long-term prospects. For instance, UBS upped its RIM price target to $32 on the bet that the new BlackBerry devices will help the quarter. Misek's price target is $25.

Misek argued that RIM is facing tough competition from Android phones from ZTE and Huawei going for less than $150.

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Topics: Mobility, BlackBerry, Security

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12 comments
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  • Something doesn't gel ..

    It's a well known fact RIM is working on Playbook OS 2.0 which will include native email / PIM. This WILL work with BES so considering Playbook is QNX already and it will be the same OS on the new smartphone shouldn't it already include everything Playbook QNX features?<br><br>So if the Jan/Feb timeframe is correct the device will launch with:<br><br>- Native email / PIM with BES connectivity & management<br>- Android Player<br>- All QNX apps<br>- Robust QNX OS fearures (multitasking, rock solid etc)<br><br>The unknown is the hardware specs and form factor. I'd wager RIM is looking at a 3.7 - 4.5" screen similar to the lastest Android models. Dual core cpu 1.2ghz or higher and 1gb ram. Heck they could use the same Playbook hardware and have a decent device in a smaller package.<br><br>If anyone is thinking RIM is going to leap frog everyone hardware wise they will be let down. They want to be comparable and have features that COULD appeal to the consumer. Anyone looking to win by having the best hardware specs will be very short lived.
    MobileAdmin
    • I look forward to the QnX phones.

      @MobileAdmin

      Having used the OS for hard real time stuff, a well implemented phone based on QnX could simply rock.
      Bruizer
    • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

      @MobileAdmin I found the Playbook ran better than iPad and a couple of android ones I tested (especially the Flash integration) .... but I question the sanity of the bone-head who decided the the company that has done mobile email better than any other (still does) could release it without native email.

      I get the market demand to release a device... but they would have been better to pour what's left of their cash into getting developers to have email ready at launch (or within a month or two). It'd be like Apple releasing the next Mac OS without mouse driver support.

      It should go down as one of the nuttiest decisions in tech history - along with the third Apple co-founder who sold his % of Apple for $2000 (now worth about $40bn)
      GLComputing
  • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

    All I see is RIM continuing to circle the drain. The rate of the spin changes from time to time, but the outcome is inevitable.
    Digger_z
  • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

    this random analyst either has way more exclusive info than THE WHOLE TECH COMMUNITY, or, this guy has no idea what he is talking about.... I will go with option 2....

    For 1... OS 7 phones are selling just fine...

    For 2... There is no evidence that the "Colt" will be stripped down... and to take it a step further... the whole concept of "striping down" makes no sense.... the issue with getting the QNX Colt phone to the public is not HARDWARE... its SOFTWARE.... stripping down suggests they are removing either ram, cpu, camera or screen.. which... makes no sense... its not like problem is getting the parts together ..... stripping down hardware only helps to reduce costs... not make it faster to get to market...

    For 3.... touch competition from ZTE and Huawei?????????? wtf!!?!?! hilarious...

    For 4: "the integration of BES/BIS email/calendar is proving difficult"... no its not... the Playbook is getting it in the next month or so... its an easy transfer from Playbook to Colt... wtf is this guy talking about

    omg this article is hilariously awful
    cattonb
    • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

      @cattonb I have no idea how OS 7 phones are selling but if you are going to make the claim they are doing just fine care to explain how you are more in the "know" about this than the analyst?
      non-biased
  • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

    In a market where the user friendly (android phones) are full of malware, has major security issues and so forth RIM is like Apple when they first hit the market. To me RIM is like Apple in the sense its not hip, fun or user friendly so to say. RIM has the right nitch in the smartphone market after all I dont see corporate or govt's rushing to get androids or Iphones as a means of daily business. RIM right now is trying to go outside their NITCH and make their phones FUN. Fun would sum up what seperates the old model phones pre-BB7 from androids or iphones. Speaking from a tech geek point of view I believe QNX will be a problem for all smartphones BUT will it incorporate a sense of user friendliness ie. FUN?
    Rdotwill
  • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

    We keep forgetting that the I-phone still has connection issues and dropped calls. Last week I was on the golf course with a friend who was shocked that I kept getting BBM's on my blackberry while his i-phone had no signal. We both use the same 4g cell provider. I also took my daughter in to upgrade to a blackberry as most of our family and friends now keep in touch with BBM and the majority of phones sold while we were there were blackberry's. <br>I think much like Mark Twain, rumours of Rim's death have been greatly exaggerated.
    rkosolofski@...
    • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

      @rkosolofski@... Stock manipulators seem to be whats happening here. Someone is trying to drive the price of RIM down. No one has BB security.
      Home Grown IT
    • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

      @rkosolofski@... Please explain how you have the same 4g provider when there is NO 4g iPhone yet???
      eye4bear
      • RE: RIM's new BlackBerry sell-through 'lackluster' as QNX phone rushed, says analyst

        @eye4bear I was going to point out the same issue with his claims. I also have to as, because I don't actually know, are there even any BBs that are 4G? Of course even if his story is true what iPhone was his "friend" using? I never really had problems with my previous iPhones but the 4 definitely gets better reception.
        non-biased
  • The Editor in Chief? Really?!

    Slow news day? Why not fall back on yet another totally made up anti-RIM story? Oh, you have.
    That's the way to show your staff how to write articles - the lazy way! Trawl for someone else's guess work on the internet, then base an article on it, fleshed out with your own guess work.
    Keep up the good work Larry! You're an inspiration to us all.
    Neily-boy