Studies: more mobile traffic, mobile video in coming years

Studies: more mobile traffic, mobile video in coming years

Summary: Mobile computing is here - and it's only going to get bigger, according to projection studies released this week.Cisco Systems today released the results of its Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Forecast for 2008-2013.

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TOPICS: Mobility
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Mobile computing is here - and it's only going to get bigger, according to projection studies released this week.

Cisco Systems today released the results of its Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Forecast for 2008-2013. The big projection in that study is that global mobile traffic will increase 66-fold between 2008 and 2013, a forecast that reflects the pending arrival of 4G mobile Internet connections, the key to increased use of mobile video and greater access to other mobile broadband services. In the report, Kelly Ahuja, senior vice president of Cisco's service provider routing technology group, said:

More personalized services and applications are becoming available on a wide range of devices. The key to success will be delivering video-rich any-play services to users, enabling them to move freely throughout the world while maintaining connectivity to others. As a result, service providers will have to take into account the need not only for more bandwidth when planning their network architecture but for greater network intelligence as well.

Among the highlights from that study:

  • Global mobile traffic will exceed two exabytes (1 billion gigabytes) per month by 2013.
  • Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop air or data cards will constitute more than 80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013.
  • Nearly 64 percent of the world's mobile traffic will be video by 2013.
  • Mobile video will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 150 percent between 2008 and 2013.

Speaking of mobile video, Global IP Solutions released the findings of a separate survey this week on the topic. In a nutshell, the survey found that mobile operators and equipment vendors also see mobile video heading into the mainstream, over the next few years. Some of the highlights from that study:

  • More than half of U.S. wireless carriers plan to launch - or increase access to - real-time video services in the next two years.
  • As a way of competing with the big guys, smaller carriers are upping their mobile Internet offerings and are going after third-party apps to enhance communications on the device.
  • Nearly half of the carriers surveyed are "enthusiastic" about delivering open platforms for third-party software developers.

An excerpt from the report:

Significant additional service rollouts are generally expected to occur within the next two years. Respondents cited various drivers behind the emergence of real-time video on the network. Sprint views real-time video as a “communication mechanism,” including video chat, for rollout in the “near term,” suggesting timelines of up to a year. Verizon seems bullish regarding video and real-time video.

Topic: Mobility

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  • We need 3G first

    The ISPs had better get cracking. I live in a university town in the south-east of England. Coverage here is 2G (GPRS, 4.5 KB/s). That's from Vodafone.
    peter_erskine
    • 3G isn't complete yet

      Agreed. It's hard to see the ubiquity of 4G when we haven't completed the transition to 3G networks yet.

      Here in the southeastern US, being five miles off the highway outside any major metropolitan area will land you on an EDGE network. And even in certain 3G locales there are capacity issues if too many people are using data at once.

      Once the majority of the carriers networks are 3G, then we can start looking to 4G...unless the carriers are gonna just skip ahead and start converting their remaining 2G towers directly to 4G (which I can't imagine either).
      the.ksmm