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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

The case for Intel making Apple's mobile chips: A Wintel of the post-PC era

By | May 3, 2011, 10:07am PDT

Intel is reportedly in the running to make Apple’s mobile chips—the A4 and A5—in a foundry deal. Here’s why such a move would make sense.

As noted by the EE Times, Intel is also pursuing Apple’s foundry business. Apple is already planning to work with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

The EE Times cited a research note by Piper Jaffray analyst Auguste Gus Richard and on further review the case is pretty strong.

Richard sets up the importance to Intel succinctly:

Intel has no market share in the next wave of computing. Smartphones and tablets are where innovation and excitement are being created. Moreover, we do not believe Intel can overcome Apple and Google’s first mover advantage in terms of attracting the attention of application developers. In order to afford to be a process technology leader Intel needs to aggregate volume as Moore gets more expensive. The solution is for Intel to become Apple’s foundry, and we believe the company is pursuing this strategy.

So why does this Intel-Apple deal make sense?

Trust and volume. Apple and Intel already work together on the Mac. They also collaborate on technologies like Thunderbolt. Meanwhile, Intel needs volume if it’s going to be a mobile chip player and has the heft to give Apple a good price. Apple  and its army of iPhones and iPads bring volume.

Nailing Samsung. It has been clear for months that the Apple-Samsung relationship is tense. That’s why Apple is moving to TSMC in the first place. However, Intel may give Apple a better deal and more of a manufacturing advantage in the long run—especially as the chip giant pushes 22-nanometer technology.

Intel needs to master low power. Richard said:

Intel has missed the transition to a post-PC era. There are several reasons for this. First, historically the company’s design methodology has been driven by high performance microprocessors and not the low power SOCs required for smartphones, tablets and other mobile devices. In our view, this is a significant issue as Intel needs to develop a rapidly expanding array of IP and learn how to integrate it quickly in a low power envelope. Second, the company continues to support its PC and x86 legacy creating significant inertia. This makes it more difficult to transition to the post-PC era as its products are crippled carrying this legacy.

22-nanometer processes benefit both Intel and Apple. Intel can’t be beat on manufacturing, argues Richard. If Intel’s 22-nanometer delivers a huge performance gain, Apple benefits by working with the chip giant as a foundry.

Intel and Apple working together on chips is a win-win. Richard writes:

The combination of Apple’s growing demand and market share in smart phones and tablets gives Intel a position in these markets and drives the logic volume Intel needs to stay ahead in manufacturing. Intel’s manufacturing lead gives Apple an additional competitive advantage in these markets and distances it from Asian competitors that are knocking off its products. A partnership between the two companies would drive dominance in tablets similar to Wintel’s dominance in PCs. Furthermore, it would also serve to weaken Samsung who is a significant competitive threat to both companies.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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RE: The case for Intel making Apple's mobile chips: A Wintel of the post-PC era
kidneyy 9th Oct
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Margins and skills
Economister Updated - 3rd May 2011
What you are advocating is a transition into fab contracting. I think Intel will find that it cannot earn the kind of gross margins in that business compared to what it is earning making its own microprocessors, where a big part of the margins come from the intellectual property included in its processors.

The "low power" skills that Intel is lacking arise from the CPU architecture, and not the manufacturing process. It is not obvious to me that becoming a fab contractor will be helpful in this regard at all.

Edit: If Intel has excess capacity, it is clearly better to produce Apple chips than having its fab(s) sit idle. That does not alter the above rationale however. If demand is down and Intel has overbuilt fabs, its margins will suffer.
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Margins and skills
DevGuy_z 3rd May 2011
@Economister They aren't the same as contract fab since they can do their own masks. This gives them a 6 mo. time advantage over contract fabs, doubling their profits as the price they can typically charge goes down rapidly. Intel can simply be there earlier than other fabs. This is why Intel routinely beats AMD since they started the Tick Tock metronome. They simply make more profit for their chips than AMD can. The same applies in this space as in the x86.

Regarding low power, they are making significant advances in this area on their own.
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@DevGuy_z

but not only will that lead be difficult to maintain long term, but as I mentioned in my first post, their traditional margins may still be impossible to maintain.

Intel's progress in lower power X86 seems entirely irrelevant in the context of this blog, which is about fabbing ARM derivatives for Apple and gaining low power knowledge/experience from that.
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@Economister
anono 3rd May 2011
I see what you are saying, but I think Intel is taking low margins now to try to increase volume so that they maintain their lead in the manufacturing process so that when their ATOM processors are ready (which they clearly are not so far) they are ready to compete.
this is a high volume play. They also have a great manufacturing tech lead which they've proven they can continuously maintain and extend for several decades now. And they aren't lacking anything in low power tech. They now have the tech to beat any ARM on power and they will soon be delivering it. If intel can also bring their advance power tech to ARM this would give apple a good way to get access to it and beat all the other ARM chips with it.
@Economister

And already have a fab allowing third parties to use Intel's top end processes.
@Economister The fact that they can do their own masks (which is getting increasingly expensive) is exactly why they will keep and perhaps extend their lead. Almost everyone else out-sources their mask production. And as this is getting more expensive the small-fry can't compete. If anything we are seeing the reverse, i.e. Intel is extending its lead in manufacturing. And I'm guessing that is primarily due to their process being in-house. Where they can set their own priorities and self-interest rather than negotiating price and timeline with a vendor.
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Will ARM permit Intel to fab its IP?
pjcordell 3rd May 2011
nt
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Sure why not?
Bruizer 3rd May 2011
@pjcordell

Intel used to be a full licensee but sold their XScale division to Marvell.
@Bruizer: ... prime licence and there is no way for ARM to have whatever restrictions on Apple-designed chips (ARM-cores is just one small part of the SoC, by the way).
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I believe they are still a licensee.
DevGuy_z 3rd May 2011
@Bruizer You are right about the XScale but it seems like a while ago Intel became interested in doing ARM. Maybe I'm thinking Microsoft (also an ARM licensee)
Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your website and in accession capital to assert that I get in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I will be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly. symptoms of lyme disease in children
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No
Economister 3rd May 2011
That would be Apptel, not Wintel wink
@james347

Thanks for the well reasoned argument.
Why the insistence in the "Post-PC" mantra? New buzz words for the sake of being cool?

What is the correct interpretation of the term Personal Computer? From what I see they are more personal today and at most they have just changed in shape, but still personal computers.
@czorrilla - agreed. Conjuring up "market forces" in a "free market" is all that's going on.
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pc yes, PC no
dave@... 4th May 2011
@czorrilla Everyone knows PC=IBM PC Clone. Yes, those things everyone calls smartphones and tablets are personal computers, small-p, small-c. But not PCs. Sure, the acronym was in use long before IBM came along, but they successfully took it as their own.
@czorrilla its just a dumb fanboy term. From idiots with iPads and other useless tablets that they think are replacing the "PC" as we know it.
It is being re-shaped. But I suspect we will have PCs for years to come.
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Intel Inside
Robert Hahn 3rd May 2011
Intel has had the good sense to stay inside, as opposed to what Samsung is doing in producing Samsung-branded end user devices.

At any point in the last 20 years, Intel could have released a line of Intel-branded PCs and put a whole bunch of people out of business. The fact that they didn't is one reason Apple trusts them.
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odd development
Eduardo_z 3rd May 2011
This is rather odd. Intel is planing on competing with ARM in the low-power market starting next year with medfield, its next-generation Atom. And Intel's big advantage over ARM is manufacturing process. If Intel produces the A4 and A5, it would helping one line of ARM chips with manufacturing. I wonder if Intel would hire its fabs out to any other ARM chip companies.
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I don't think so.
WilErz 4th May 2011
The defining characteristic of the 'Wintel' (de-facto) standard is its multi-vendor nature. This puts the firms who define the software and hardware standards (Microsoft and Intel, respectively) into the driving seat. With the iPhone/iPad, Apple are clearly in the driving seat. Even if Apple and Intel were to reach an agreement for Intel to manufacture all A4/A5 CPUs, Apple could always change producers on a whim, just as they're doing now. Intel have no IP and no power in the matter.

The other difference is that 'Wintel' is ubiquitous. Even Apple PCs are often 'Wintel' -- the hardware is standard Intel PC hardware, and Mac users often buy Windows (some even run it exclusively). In contrast, the single-vendor nature of the iPhone/iPad means they're unlikely to dominate the market in the same way over an extended period of time. The major mobile operators in Europe, for example, have already formed a consortium to monitor Apple and Google for anti-competitive behaviour in the mobile OS market, and also encouraged Nokia to adopt Windows Phone instead of Android. (They also supported MeeGo, but its future looks to be in doubt now.)

Apple may be able to hold onto the biggest pieces of the smartphone and tablet pies, but even if they do, single-vendor products rarely become de-facto standards. Without a de-facto standard or any IP/power on Intel's side, comparing iOS-tel with Wintel just doesn't make sense. Apple remain in complete control, even if they do go with Intel.
@WilErz

"Even Apple PCs are often 'Wintel' -- the hardware is standard Intel PC hardware, and Mac users often buy Windows (some even run it exclusively)."

I'll assume you mean Intel. Then you get stuck having to explain what you mean by "often", since 100% of macs are Intel.
Also, please provide citations for your claim that "Mac users often buy Windows". While it might make you sleep better at night, this is purely a fabrication of your fertile wishful thinking.

More to the point, in what way is M in the drivers seat with core design, the same Core series used by Apple and many Linux distros?

"The major mobile operators in Europe, for example, have already formed a consortium to monitor Apple and Google for anti-competitive behaviour in the mobile OS market, and also encouraged Nokia to adopt Windows Phone instead of Android."

So? How is this even remotely relevant?

" but even if they do, single-vendor products rarely become de-facto standards."

Hate to break it to you, but standards almost ALWAYS come from single-vendor products.
.pdf, .doc, even the x86 architecture itself.
@DeusXMachina
"Mac users often buy Windows".
I can explain you this. I know many peple who use only Windows on Mac. And a few studies showed that 75% of peoples at work (probably at home too) use Windows 7 on a Mac, and also another one showed that the same number - 75% of students use Windows on Mac too. So there is not much to explain. That is just the way it is. sad

"single-vendor products rarely become de-facto standards"
This is more or less true, dont compare .pdf or .doc, because they are not just single vendor products. For the time they came out, they was kind the only way to do the job, and thats why they became standard. .doc is what today (Post-PC era) Office365 or Sharepoint is, and there are thousands of Partner companies that do further developments on this.

So looking to where the world is going to, read: the cloud, and apple is miles behind the time, the only thing is left for them is to make money on hardware.
@frenkiesmart
Where to begin?
I certainly hope that you don't think your anecdotal claims and unverified citations count as proof. Even if these supposed studies existed, the data they present are essentially irrelevant. Students? Really?

"This is more or less true, dont compare .pdf or .doc, because they are not just single vendor products."

Newsflash for you. You need to refresh your knowledge of history. Pdf IS a single vendor product, from Adobe, and only exists outside of their framework due to initial reverse engineering, due to the fact that it had become... wait for it... a SINGLE-VENDOR STANDARD.
Likewise .doc from MS. The claim that "for the time they came out, they was kind the only way to do the job, and thats why they became standard", just highlights your ignorance. When they came out, there was a sea of competing standards, from Word Perfect, Lotus, etc.. .doc became a de facto standard that programmers had to write for due SOLELY to the success of Word. Likewise with .pdf.
As for your ridiculous statement about Apple and the cloud. You need to pay more attention to the news.
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Not too sure about this....
dave@... 4th May 2011
A couple of things. Yeah, Apple is reported looking for a foundry. That makes sense. They needed Samsung in the past to help develop their "custom" A4, as well as supplying earlier chips. But the A4 was actually developed using Samsung's Hummingbird ARM A8 processor core... developed with help from Intrinsity. Which is now owned by Apple, in addition to PA Semi. So Apple has all the in-house chip-chops they need.

And Samsung is now a direct competitor. Even if they're the most benevolent coopetitor possible, why ensure that every iOS device sold adds as much to Samsung's volume as Apple's? So all the need is a foundry. Like TSMC, or any of the other biggies used by real chip companies, like AMD, nVidia, Broadcom, Qualcom, SanDisk, etc.

Intel? Well, sure, that's good for Apple, if Intel's interested in becoming a contract chip foundry. Apple gets access to a 22nm process. But they can have 28nm now, 20nm next year, in theory, at TSMC anyway... thanks to Intel. TSMC got tech from Intel to get their new processes off the ground, as part of Intel's move to license the Atom core... their evil plan to combat ARM licensing.

But what does Intel get? Volume, sure, but at commodity prices... Apple's not going to pay more for Intel than TSMC. Intel's vast fortunes are largely based on the idea that Windows made x86 worth more than any other CPU, and this is still true. And since it's Apple's design, Intel's not getting any low-power tech in return.

And they probably don't need it. Intel's problem isn't making a lower power CPU or SOC, it's making a lower power x86 CPU or SOC. If they had kept StrongARM and developed that as a real product line, rather than selling it off to Marvell, Intel might be a powerhouse in the phone and tablet biz already. They're already licensing PowerVR cores for the low-end x86 chipsets, the favorite GPU of ARM-land.

And as well, Intel has been very vocal about wanting to be a major factor in phones and tablets... just phones and tablets with x86 chips in them. They're failing today, and with Nokia abandoning MeeGo, the only major phone/tablet OS on x86 right now is Android (which, oddly enough, Intel just embraced). Apple doesn't really need to be in the same boat as they were with Samsung... if Intel is successful, they'll be another big competitor to Apple, pushing x86-Android based phones and tablets. Same idea as Samsung, only the #1 largest chip company, rather than #2.

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