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Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Tim Armstrong's fine risk-reward setup at AOL

By | March 13, 2009, 9:26am PDT

Summary: AOL’s new soon-to-be CEO Tim Armstrong will be in for quite a sea change from his previous gig at Google. The lingering question: Why would you leave Google for AOL?  It’s an interesting question raised by Sam Diaz offline. For all the talk (Techmeme) about Armstrong’s enthusiasm about a “great opportunity” AOL’s new chief is bound [...]

AOL’s new soon-to-be CEO Tim Armstrong will be in for quite a sea change from his previous gig at Google. The lingering question: Why would you leave Google for AOL? 

It’s an interesting question raised by Sam Diaz offline. For all the talk (Techmeme) about Armstrong’s enthusiasm about a “great opportunity” AOL’s new chief is bound to have a few headaches. The biggest one: Time Warner. Will the decisions about AOL be made by the New York brass or Armstrong? How much real authority will Armstrong have?

We don’t know for sure, but if AOL’s previous leader Randy Falco was allowed to overpay for Bebo perhaps Armstrong has free reign. 

However, there’s something else going on here. Armstrong has a great risk reward set-up. There’s little risk that Armstrong’s star will be tarnished and he’ll be a hero if he fixes AOL, which is still a major Web brand. 

Here’s a look at Armstrong’s setup:

  • Fail miserably and it’s Falco’s fault. You could even blame Jonathan Miller too. The excuse if Armstrong falls flat is this: Well, AOL was screwed up to begin with. 
  • Succeed and make AOL a player again and Armstrong is a Web god. Dress AOL up for a sale he’s a hero. Spin AOL off from Time Warner and you guessed it: Hero AND liberator. 

You see these set-ups all the time. Carol Bartz at Yahoo has a similar set-up. If she restores Yahoo’s stature and she’s a star. If Yahoo still stumbles–it won’t in my opinion–blame Jerry Yang, Terry Semel and silly sideshows like Carl Icahn. 

The risk reward management list here goes on and on. Remember Michael Capellas, former CEO of Compaq then HP exec? He took over MCI (then Worldcom) in a massive restructuring job. He had nothing to lose and came out looking like a management guru. Capellas fixed up MCI so well Verizon bought it. 

Now Capellas is chief of First Data and has a bio that reads like this:

Prior to joining First Data, Capellas was a two-time, former CEO of Compaq Computer Corporation and MCI and a recognized global thought leader in the technology space. He began his career with Schlumberger Limited and went on to hold senior management positions at Schlumberger as well as Oracle Corporation and SAP Americas. He joined Compaq in 1998 as their chief information officer and was named chairman and CEO in July 1999. After the merger with HP, Capellas served as president of HP. In 2002, he accepted the challenge of leading MCI (then WorldCom) through the largest corporate reorganization in history. For three years, he served as MCI’s president and CEO and oversaw the successful rebuilding of the company. Turnaround completed, Verizon Communications ultimately acquired MCI in 2006.

That’s the bio that Armstrong is after. And he has a pretty good risk reward scenario to get it.

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Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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There is no risk for Tim Armstrong
TJGodel 16th Mar 2009
There is no risk to Tim Armstrong because Time Warner
will dump AOL during his tenure as CEO. Tim Armstrong
is their to clean things up for a sale. The rumor is
as soon as AOL can fetch an respectable price from a
company like Liberty Media Corporation it will be
sold.
"He joined Compaq in 1998 as their chief information officer and was named chairman and CEO in July 1999. After the merger with HP, Capellas served as president of HP. "
"For three years, he served as MCI?s president and CEO and oversaw the successful rebuilding of the company. Turnaround completed, Verizon Communications ultimately acquired MCI"

If they were successfully turned around nobody would be willing to sell. Were they sold at a huge premium (in Compaq's and HP's case no they weren't) so all stock holders recovered their money (from their highs). If not the turnaround was not successful. Selling is the acceptance that you can't run the company.
0 Votes
+ -
This is the way the careering model is played today. You can't stay too long at a company, because then other employers won't consider you ambitious. Instead, you parlay one success onto another.

Of course, employers never realize that successful people can fail and that fired people can perform, e.g., Lee Iacocca. You see it everywhere, how they insist on people with proven track records. Employers falsely believe that if this person was successful at one firm, then everything he touches will turn to gold. (Never mind the environment, the company culture, the marketplace and competitors at the time.)

Armstrong falls into that category of worker who has a big company to his name, that every employer recognizes at an instant. He's not like the other 97% of people who have to pound the pavement hoping to be discovered. He'd be stupid to not milk his job history the way he's doing. More power to him and the system!
0 Votes
+ -
Anyone who takes this job has to at least be a "very" brave soul. You said it right AOL is so screwed up I think "God" would have a tough time fixing it. If the big boyz in NYC give him a free hand he might be able to at least, improve things. Switch from Google to AOL????? Haaaaaaaaa!....I almost choked on my coffee.
AOL on its way to Google?
0 Votes
+ -
There is no risk for Tim Armstrong
TJGodel 16th Mar 2009
There is no risk to Tim Armstrong because Time Warner
will dump AOL during his tenure as CEO. Tim Armstrong
is their to clean things up for a sale. The rumor is
as soon as AOL can fetch an respectable price from a
company like Liberty Media Corporation it will be
sold.

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