Vista skepticism pervades, may be misplaced

Vista skepticism pervades, may be misplaced

Summary: This just in--Vista is launching to consumers and the Web is buzzing with worries over how to upgrade (and whether those worries are legit), stories about demand and primers on killer apps and pitfalls. One common thread: Folks are pretty damn skeptical about Vista.

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TOPICS: Windows
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This just in--Vista is launching to consumers and the Web is buzzing with worries over how to upgrade (and whether those worries are legit), stories about demand and primers on killer apps and pitfalls.

Where's the wow? Skepticism about Vista pervades.One common thread: Folks are pretty damn skeptical about Vista.

And it's not just Apple fans--who will tell you that Vista is an OS X wannabe. Here's an inventory of the skeptic crowd: CIOs who have no inclination to upgrade; consumers who are perfectly happy with XP; and analysts who don't see a big Vista bang. Even Microsoft's financial outlook factors in a so-so Vista pop.

The contrarian in me leads me to one conclusion: Vista will be better than expected, be well received and boost demand. The logic goes something like this: Companies love to UPOD (under promise and over deliver) so everyone is lowballing projections. If Vista was the clunker everyone seems to think it is maybe it shouldn't have launched.

Is Vista a quantum leap? Probably not. But it's an improvement over XP. If word spreads about some feature that geeks aren't focused on--say better management of digital content--and poof you have demand.

If my hunch is correct and Vista actually shows a little spark we could quickly be writing about hardware supply issues. After all, PC manufacturers seem to be putting their dollars behind their skepticism.

Pacific Crest analyst Brendan Barnicle said in a research note that OEMs have been cutting back on their component orders for Vista PCs. Barnicle gives the following reasons for the demand slowdown:

  • PC makers think Vista PCs cost too much;
  • Retailers don't think Vista demand will be strong;
  • Manufacturers are already saddled with inventory of components such as graphics cards.

Barnicle said:

"Although Vista is an improvement over Windows XP, we have been skeptical that it would drive consumer demand. The commentary from the PC supply chain provides another reason to be skeptical about near-term outperformance from Vista."

There's that word again--skeptical. I'm a little less skeptical for one simple reason. Techies have been talking to themselves about Vista for more than a year. Consumers and businesses will be the ultimate arbiter of Vista success and they haven't even weighed in yet. 

Topic: Windows

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  • A strong demand for Windows Vista!

    I think that it will be a great demand for Windows Vista because people wants a more modern layout and as PC hardware are getting cheaper for more capacity, it is logical to make a operating system that need more capacity if it will lead to better graphics etc. For instance people would not like to buy new cars that offer six years old designs.

    At the same time security will, probably, be better in Windows Vista than in XP and this despite of the fact that security is still a lot better in Linux and Mac OS X. Consumers likes this improvement in security.

    As people wants, sooner or later, to buy new PCs anyway, the demand for a more modern operating system would, very likely, be strong indeed.

    Bj?rn Lundahl
    G?teborg, Sweden
    Björn Lundahl
    • Who cares?

      Here are the facts:

      1. Windows XP is a great operating system. Unlike the Windows 9x code base it replaced it is actually stable and a lot more trouble free.

      2. Those people who will upgrade to Vista will do so based on their criteria. Not mine, not yours, and not Microsofts.

      3. It's not unusual for companies to hold off on deploying new software upon its release. People act as if this is some reflection on Vista. It's not.

      4. Vista will ship on new PCs. Thus it is eventually going to over take Windows XP in market share.
      ye
      • True

        ?Those people who will upgrade to Vista will do so based on their criteria. Not mine, not yours, and not Microsofts.?

        Yes true and that was my whole point with my comment.

        Bj?rn Lundahl
        Björn Lundahl
      • Mutable facts

        1) Windows NT was a great improvement on the 9x kernel, and 2000 was a pretty good improvement on NT. Since then, Windows has gone downhill. From Clippy to the multiple popups that ask if I'm really absolutely without a doubt sure that I want to click that button to the numerous layers of obfuscation that keep breeding like rabbits to hinder meaningful administration, to the working assumption that I'm a software pirate and if my CPU temp changes so much as 3 degrees I must run an obstical course to prove that I'm not, the Windows OS has continued its approach towards some Orwellian dystopia.

        2) Many folks seek the opinion of others, especially techies. For the past 4-6 months my advice has been simple: Ubuntu. Easy enough for the casaul user, robust enough for business, and after all, what is the ROI on $0?

        3) Short-term, that's true. Let's see how big the WOW is after the first service pack release.

        4) Here, I agree. Microsoft may very well continue its domination by ramming itself down people's throats, aided and abetted by the same PC companies who historically used proprietary hardware to squeeze more money out of the consumer. I stopped using their hardware years ago, and have stopped using Windows as soon as I began to read about Vista.

        Microsoft got one thing right. Every time I read another article about Vista, I say "Wow." But I'm shaking my head when I say it.
        thumbknuckle
  • You're kidding, right?

    "Companies love to UPOD (under promise and over deliver) so everyone is lowballing
    projections. If Vista was the clunker everyone seems to think it is maybe it shouldn't
    have launched."
    Apple does, MS doesn't
    Example, WinFS.
    Graham Fluet
    • Clunker?

      No I am not kidding. People talk a lot but their actions might not be the same. Well, soon we will not need to guess as facts will be delivered in front of our eyes.

      Clunker?

      http://www.cnet.com/hot/microsoft/windows/vista/4520-13111_1-6687520-1.html?tag=sh-main-col#reviews


      Bj?rn Lundahl
      Björn Lundahl
      • Since You're Throwing Out Links

        Here's a few that may give you a better
        education:

        http://news.com.com/2100-1001-268889.html

        http://news.com.com/2100-1001-257001.html

        http://news.com.com/2100-1001-268667.html

        http://news.com.com/Linux+hits+Microsoft+where+it+hurts/2100-1001_3-220845.html

        http://shearer.org/VistaForLawyers

        I mean, why stop with one itty bitty link?
        Lets get some educational material out here.
        Don't take my word for anything. Read for
        yourself.

        http://www.michaelgeist.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1641&Itemid=135

        http://www.channelinsider.com/article/VARs+Disappointed+by+Microsofts+Vista+Launch+Support/199824_1.aspx?kc=CITCIEMNL013007STR1

        http://mediavidea.blogspot.com/2007/01/case-against-vista.html

        http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/developer/where_are_the_vista_killer_apps.html?kc=MWRSS02129TX1K0000535

        http://www.fcw.com/article94322-05-09-06-Web&RSS=yes

        http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1863060,00.asp

        http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070128-8717.html

        http://randomelements.me.uk/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=198

        See A compelling reason to run out and buy
        Vista there?

        I could give you a lot more links, but then
        i'll bet you didn't even look at these.
        Ole Man
        • Windows Vista seems to receive higher scores than Mac OS X!

          Thanks for the links!

          Another review of Windows Vista and this is about security.

          "If you're looking to buy a new computer, the security features built into Vista tip the balance in its favor over other options such as Mac OS X," Litchfield said. "We've moved beyond the days of lots of bugs and worms. Recent history shows that Microsoft can get it right, as they did with XP SP2. With Vista, they will again demonstrate that."

          http://news.com.com/Experts+Dont+buy+Vista+for+the+security/2100-1016_3-6154448.html

          Bj?rn Lundahl
          G?teborg, Sweden
          Björn Lundahl
          • Yes, But Here's Another Link

            That you should read.

            http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-3513_7-6689143-1.html?tag=nl.e501

            If you seriously even half-way checked out
            all the links I posted and still don't see
            anything wrong with Vista, I'd do an
            in-depth reality check if I were you.
            Ole Man
          • Dominating the marketplace

            Well thanks, but the link I gave you will lead to an article which surely shows what several experts thinks about Windows Vista and their judgements are final: Windows Vista is a very good operating system.

            You can not change that.

            I would guess that Microsoft?s market share will increase further from already dominating the market. That is another point.

            http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5

            Bj?rn Lundahl
            Björn Lundahl
          • Could those experts be Bill and Steve?

            Your link is a page in history, not an
            expert's opinion.
            We're talking about the future here, not
            history, and just because a corporation has
            dominated the market doesn't mean that they
            will continue to.
            Since you're handing out history lessons,
            hasn't it always been the money grubbers
            that dominated the markets throughout
            history? Hardly a distinction that I would
            care to claim.
            Ole Man
        • So Stupid

          All these nay-sayers. I remember the same garbage about XP it was link this link that see this see that...mostly from the goof-ball apple freaks (and they are freaks). MS has deep pockets and can rest on it laurals (unlike Apple) and wait. Eventually Vista will out there. Is there a rush - nope - and won't be. But I personally have used it and seen it and it's better the XP. They are heading in the right direction and when you control 90% of the OS market, you have "moaners" as I like to call them. It's here, It's here to stay. Might as well learn it. BTW it put it on a 1.5 G machine (no Aero) and it worked great.
          fr0thy2.
          • MmOooo...Aaa.Nnnnnnnneeee

            I can't get my Edsel to start.
            Maybe i'll just play with my VeezDuh.
            Ole Man
          • We do not know about the future

            We do not know about the future. We can only speculate about it.

            ?Since you're handing out history lessons,
            hasn't it always been the money grubbers
            that dominated the markets throughout
            history??

            Yes, and that might be so also in the future.

            Bj?rn Lundahl
            Björn Lundahl
  • Skepticism because Vista's been analyzed to death & we know what it brings

    This is a wild idea, having to break ranks from thousands of like thinking sheep feeding on microsoft PR, but maybe, just maybe, the reason people are so skeptical about vista is that the beta versions have been used and abused for months, and it's been analyzed to death, so we all know what's coming?

    And just maybe there's so much more skepticism because of the draconian restrictions, DRM, and MPAA/RIAA-friendly-customer-unfriendly features packed to the hilt, not to mention the increase in memory and processing capabilities needed to run vista at a speed comparable to Win2K or XP on a slower machine?

    I mean, yeah, I sure love forking out my hard earned money to get a bloated, restricted, DRM infested OS which is going to be sluggish and lethargic on my current PC.
    kraterz
    • Irrational accusation!

      ?And it's been analyzed to death?

      If Vista has been analyzed to death, it seems that Microsoft have at least tried to make a good OS. But that is no good either I suppose.

      Bj?rn Lundahl
      Björn Lundahl
  • Bad rip-off of OS X...

    I have a seven-year-old Macintosh that runs the latest version of Mac OS X (10.4.8 Tiger). Sure it's a little slow, but it?s still very usable. So now every PC user is being asked to shell out somewhere around $1,500 plus for a system capable of running a full featured version of a lousy operating system. On top of that, you?ll be asked to shell out another $500 for the high-end version of Vista. Apple used to be the one accused of over charging for their wares. Let?s see how Microsoft does, now that they?re wearing that crown.

    Does Bill Gates have no pride? Is he only capable of copying the innovations of others? Is Microsoft truly incapable of an original idea of their own? Zune, now there?s a perfect example of how Microsoft takes a great product and bastardizes it, turning it into something mediocre. Microsoft products are pretty crappy to begin with; can anyone imagine how crappy their stuff would be without Apple? Does Microsoft have an R&D department, or do they just have a staff reviewing the products of their competition and copying it? My advice, save a bundle of money and buy a Mac. I guarantee, you won?t regret switching. And in the process, you?ll save yourself a few dollars, and a lot of headaches. Vista will be a flop.
    gtdworak
    • Why do Mac users care?

      Vista doesn't affect you. Why are Mac advocates so consumed by Vista?

      "So now every PC user is being asked to shell out somewhere around $1,500 plus for a system capable of running a full featured version of a lousy operating system."

      I can buy a brand new version less than half that from Dell. If I don't want the new graphics I can reduce that to ~$360. Quite reasonable.

      "On top of that, you?ll be asked to shell out another $500 for the high-end version of Vista."

      Max cost of Vista is $400 for the retail version of Ultimate. It can be had for half that if you buy the OEM version.
      ye
      • Maybe this is the reason

        http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34491

        Bj?rn Lundahl
        Björn Lundahl
        • Apple's Strategy

          Thats why they should release it as a standalone OS, rather than trying to sell you an entire computer. However if they did that then they would deal with all the problems that MS does. Then their marketing campaigns would not be as effective even if they cost 25% of their profit revenue.
          weepule