Will it be a Kindle Christmas?

Will it be a Kindle Christmas?

Summary: Dear Amazon: Please reveal how many Kindles you have sold. If not, analysts will be forced to guess--repeatedly.

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Dear Amazon: Please reveal how many Kindles you have sold. If not, analysts will be forced to guess--repeatedly. I may even have to guess too.

The guessing game about Kindle sales continues and the euphoria is building (Techmeme). Citi's Mark Mahaney, who in May said that the Kindle has iPod-ish potential, is at it again. In a research note, Mahaney on Monday predicted that Amazon will move 380,000 Kindle units in 2008, double his previous projection.

That 380,000 is very important historically--that's how many iPods Apple shipped in its first year. Mahaney writes that the Kindle "appears to actually be shaping up as the iPod of the book world."

Based on what? Mahaney says that Kindle remains on the top of Amazon's best seller list, has positive customer reviews and a bevy of eBook lover reviews. All of those signs point to Kindle's big appeal. Meanwhile, TechCrunch reports that Amazon has sold 240,000 Kindles. For its part, Amazon isn't saying much of anything and that's good for the e-tailer since the silence only stokes more interest.

In a nutshell, Mahaney has a few tea leaves with a smidge of outright guessing. Will Amazon hit the mark? Possibly. Mahaney says that the Kindle has little competition in the gadget gift department:

Every holiday season, it seems, there are a few top “gadget” gifts – consumer electronics devices in the $200-$400 range that become big sellers – e.g. PS3, the iPod, the Wii, etc... For this holiday season, our checks with Citi’s Retail, Hardware & Software analysts highlight a dearth of new “gadget” gifts – except for the 3G iPhone. Which makes us wonder whether the Kindle – especially if a new and improved V2 comes out in time – could be one of those top “gadget” gifts.

The bottom line: Mahaney thinks his estimate for Kindle sales is conservative. Mahaney projecting Kindle and associated book sales to deliver $1 billion in revenue by 2010, up from his estimate of $400 million to $750 million.

Here's a look at Mahaney's estimates so you can decide whether the numbers add up:

kindle3.png

Topics: Hardware, Amazon, Mobility

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9 comments
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  • Oh please

    The answer to this is very simple.

    Not a lot. Otherwise they would be shouting numbers from the
    rooftops.

    Critical thinking. All it takes is a little practice.
    frgough
  • RE: Will it be a Kindle Christmas?

    I talked to Werner Vogels, CTO of Amazon, exclusively about the
    Kindle on April 4 2008 in Amsterdam, and he told me a few hours
    after it went live that he realised he?d said something he wasn?t
    really meant to have divulged during the interview. I said it would
    not be transcribed, but that the interview was already ?out there?,
    and that?s how we left it.

    Audio Interview 5m 23s: Listen at
    http://thenextweb.org/2008/04/04/675/
    David Petherick
    • Great

      "I promised him not to transcribe it so I'm letting everyone know the contents of the audio".
      wheres_my_stuff
  • Nauseating

    The world does not need yet another gadget to carry around, and one that will end up in a landfill in 3 years.

    We have tablet and ultramobile PCs (heck even the ipod touch) that are MULTI-PURPOSE. Why are we supporting something like the Kindle?
    croberts
    • Couldn't Agree More

      What a complete waste.
      IT_Guy_z
  • RE: Will it be a Kindle Christmas?

    Yes the world needs e-books readers. They're easier to use than multi-purpose equipment.
    The problem of having too many gadgets is real but not exclusive to e-book readers.
    Would you have a multi-purpose computer where you have to start an application to dial a telephone number and click the digits with your mouse instead of using a mobile?
    wheres_my_stuff
  • RE: Will it be a Kindle Christmas?

    Better be! As long as Kindle is limited to the American market, it's not worthy of a global review.
    class@...
  • RE: Will it be a Kindle Christmas?

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