Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Yahoo's dwindling search share: Time to panic?

By | November 18, 2009, 5:26am PST

Summary: Microsoft’s Bing search engine continues to grab market share from Yahoo in a perverse dance before these two companies partner to conquer Google. Is it time for Yahoo to panic about its search share?

Microsoft’s Bing search engine continues to grab market share from Yahoo in a perverse dance before these two companies partner in an attempt to conquer Google.

The latest comScore stats tell the tale. Simply put, Microsoft has nearly garnered 10 percent market share as Yahoo gives ground monthly. Google continues to gain share.

Now compare this to the picture at the end of 2008:

The twisted part: Microsoft and Yahoo are future partners on search (assuming regulators play along). The companies announced in late July that Yahoo would outsource search to Microsoft. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz looked like long lost college pals.

Since then, Microsoft has systematically grabbed share from Yahoo. It appears that Microsoft will grab its search share with or without Yahoo. And if Microsoft acquires Ask.com, which may be on the block, the software giant picks up more share. Bottom line: Microsoft has played the Bing marketing game well. By portraying Bing as a rival to Google it has crowded out the No. 2 player—Yahoo.

Is it time for Yahoo to hit the panic button? Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay addresses the issue in a research note Wednesday.

At a high-level Lindsay reckons:

  • Since the Yahoo-Microsoft deal was negotiated Microsoft has grabbed 130 basis points of U.S. search queries.
  • 18 percent market share for Yahoo is an unprecedented low.
  • Each 100 basis points of share loss equals a penny of earnings per share.
  • Yahoo’s 18 percent market share in search is worth $6 per share to investors.
  • Yahoo’s search share could fall nearly 4 points before the deal closes.

Lindsay writes:

The deal structure gives Microsoft a perverse incentive to try and gain search share from Yahoo! rather than Google. As Microsoft cranks up its marketing engine to promote trial of Bing, the player it seems to be hurting most is Yahoo! followed at some distance by AOL. Whether this is a deliberate tactic by Microsoft (which we think unlikely) or not, the 130 bps of search share lost by Yahoo! to Bing we estimate has already cost Yahoo! shareholders $0.40/per share.

Even with all of those moving parts, Lindsay says that the financial impact isn’t as severe as some folks fear. Yahoo’s owned and operated sites carry the day. Simply put, Yahoo is more destination than search player.

Nevertheless, Yahoo is in a dangerous limbo here. Yahoo’s search team is more likely to be focused on sending resumes than advancing the ball. Advertisers are holding out for the deal to close before picking sides and they’re likely to go to the alpha male in the Microhoo deal—Microsoft.

And the biggest problem: Google isn’t standing still. Google is ramping up its mobile features and adding features and functionality at a rapid clip.

Also: Yahoo, Microsoft extend negotiations for search pact

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Topics

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic.

Disclosure

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan has nothing to disclose. He doesn’t hold investments in the technology companies he covers.

Biography

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is Editor in Chief of ZDNet and SmartPlanet as well as Editorial Director of ZDNet's sister site TechRepublic. He was most recently Executive Editor of News and Blogs at ZDNet. Prior to that he was executive news editor at eWeek and news editor at Baseline. He also served as the East Coast news editor and finance editor at CNET News.com. Larry has covered the technology and financial services industry since 1995, publishing articles in WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, The New York Times, and Financial Planning magazine. He's a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism and the University of Delaware.

For daily updates, follow Larry on Twitter.

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It really IS about the results...
RoutyRastus 22nd Nov 2009
of the search. Havent used Yahoo for anything in a couple years and I quit then because the results SUCKED. It hasn't changed at all!
Won't be back Yahoo! Continue with GOOGLE!
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Typical Microsoft
THavoc 18th Nov 2009
This is normal business practice for MS. Partner up with someone, take what they need, then discard them.

Ask anyone from RealNetworks how their partnership went.
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It's about search.
caspianhiro Updated - 18th Nov 2009
Wow, it looks like the volume of search users
use the search engine that delivers better
results.

Google search is better than Bing is better
than Yahoo.

Yahoo decided to essentially abandon R&D on
search, they haven't innovated the quality of
their results in years.

And you are right, they are a destination, I
use them for email (hard to move), Instant
Messaging (lots of competition), and a "home
page"/news aggregator (easy to change).

I also use google for all of these, PLUS
search, groups, collaboration.

The NEXT BIG THING will be a "Personal
Cloud/Data Warehouse". Someone will figure out
how to help individuals manage all of their
data types, email, contacts (with the contact
able to keep their data current like Plaxo and
in sync with ALL of my devices), media
(libraries of music, video and photos),
personal content creation (blogs, photo albums,
you tube channels), and other misc. storage.

I'm not a "fan" of Google, as soon as something
comes along that is better, I'm gone, but right
now, Google is closer to delivering what I
want, it is just more difficult than it needs
to be.

And whoever ends up with all of my data, it
will probably be very, very difficult to leave
them.
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'Waves' Hello
Mikeybackwards Updated - 18th Nov 2009
What you are asking for is an area that Google
is already looking to improve and deliver in.
I just got my Google Wave invite. As it is
still in very preliminary development (I am a
very early adopter) it is still very bare-
bones, and they have in fact suspended new
invites and user base growth until they can
build out the system a bit more. However, what
they have, and the few people I can connect
with have already used this system and
it tests out well. It will include many if not
ultimately all of the things on your wish list.
So just when I start to get fed up with some of
Google's shenanigans, they find a way to draw
me back in with new and innovative products.
And they do it not by bullying or driving out
the competition, but by the old fashioned and
respectable method of simply out-performing.
They deserve their success and I wish them
continued success because it is helping me be
more successful.
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It really IS about the results...
RoutyRastus 22nd Nov 2009
of the search. Havent used Yahoo for anything in a couple years and I quit then because the results SUCKED. It hasn't changed at all!
Won't be back Yahoo! Continue with GOOGLE!
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It is amazing that, at a time when they are losing mind share, Yahoo would decide to frustrate its users with a new homepage that is less effective and more cumbersome to use. Even the replacement process has been drawn out and torturous to heavy computer users and many long time Yahoo loyalists are resentful of the imposition and selecting new homepages for their browsers and Google for their searches just to express their displeasure. Like many companies after they are established, Yahoo's interaction with its public has been replaced with a bureaucracy that consults only its self.
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Did anyone think this 'pact' would end happily for YeeHaw?
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Obviously
Graham Ellison 18th Nov 2009
...but it was equally obvious that Microsoft's only objective was to take
them out of play in an attempt to increase share.

And in a market driven by user choice and dominated by the search
provider that understands that best of all, is it any great surprise that
Ballmer's clunking fist should be trying to grab more than his natural
share of the nuts by the old fashioned route of acquisition instead?

We are of course left with another useful metaphor here too. Both MS and
Yahoo are still steadily sinking - Yahoo more quickly of course, though
no longer by the bow first. But these remain two drowning fools in a
rough sea. Grabbing for each other may be a natural instinct, but a
desperate one nevertheless.
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I switched
bizcad 18th Nov 2009
I read on ZDNet about a virus targeting Google and it made sense to me. Virus writers are like any other business and go after the apps with the biggest market share. That is why Microsoft products were targeted.

I switched to Bing. I found out I am mostly satisfied with the search results. Occasionally, I go back to Google for an alternate take, but over all I am now a Bing guy and I am starting to use the verb.

Looking for aomething....Bing it.
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Bing it?
Graham Ellison 18th Nov 2009
Because It's Not Google it?

In what warped version of reality do you expect anyone to believe that?

As a verb it doesn't even track properly.

But I suppose if you get paid by Microsoft to say that...
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Carol Bartz stated back in May, 2009 that "We are not a search company" so what is the big deal? They sued to be powered by Google (fro search), then they acquired a few search companies, then they made a deal with Microsoft. If they lose (search) market share, given what Bartz has said, does it really matter?

For the record, Bing is improving through acquisitions, just as Google is through development. It's not as if Yahoo needs the money from ads.
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Correct
phatkat 18th Nov 2009
Yahoo! started as an portal and had search features in it. They bought Inktomi to help with that but it never matched Google in its search capacity so it is back to being a portal again.
In my work I use both Yahoo and Google to make sure I don't miss something the other misses. I have seen Google miss things that Yahoo gets but that is just me I guess.
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What I can't figure is why Bing or ANYONE would want any part of the mega-huge liability known as YAHOO! They can't even make their search feature function properly in their very own Yahoo Groups; it won't find anything published within the past ~4-5 months; can't find a unique (to that Group) word in the Group's current nor archived postings that has been published REPEATEDLY! Their so-called "Customer Care" center has been off-shored to a bunch of inane sub-par performers whose sole talent is in copying & pasting non-applicable solutions that don't even pertain to the complained-about function, nor work when they happen to stumble upon the correct subject matter. I very seriously doubt they possess even half-comprehension when it comes to the English language - merely grabbing onto the first word they think they understand, after reading halfway thru the letter, and finding a matching word from a menu script.

Since Yahoo's 'reformation' after their ownership woes surfaced has only led them to the brink of their ....can't say 'downfall', that began some time ago, so ok, ....destruction, their "solution" has now become to ape some of the detestful "social networks". "What are you doing...." on their portal page? Popups on Group message boards asking "Do you want to share your activities with this entire Group?" ?!!??!!? PLEASE!

Yahoo has really REALLY screwed the pooch in their newfound direction. Anyone with a chance for a partnership should not walk - RUN!! And I'm talking, in an AWAY direction.

0 Votes
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Ibm, Sega, ... the list goes on.
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Since I think advertising and prostitution are pretty much the same flower and perfumes stink much more then 4 letter words, I will simply say that Metacrawler was the king of ' search ' before the heyday of Google and in my abstinance concerning false advertsing I tend to lean toward the much less approved ' CLUSTY ' search engine when I REALLY want to find something that ISN'T immersed in advertising.
The man was right about one thing for sure, Yahoo is much more a destination then a task and has been for at least 10 years.
As far as ' ASK ' or ' BING ', the more I hear about them, the more I tend to think they are wanna-bees that smell of perfume and prostitution.
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WHO CARES?! My grand daddy would call this "beating a dead horse."
I use Google for Everything. About one time each quarter I use "Yahoo Answers."
Now THAT'S a great little feature.

And, what's The Deal about which OS is coming out next? If it WERE A GOOD OS (like an old Castle) NO ONE WOULD torture themselves with bobbles, bangles and beads on a learning curve equivalent to that of a FOUR (4) year Bachelor's Degree.

(JUST WHEN HAVE THERE BEEN LESS THAN 4 year Bachelor's Degrees anyway?!)

IF ANYONE QUESTIONS YOU, PLEASE FOLLOW MY SUIT:

"Oh THAT Thing! What a mess! You simply MUST wait until Windows 8000 Turbo comes out!"

0 Votes
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Yahoo is irrelevant, and has been for some time. Sort of like AOL....
0 Votes
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I feel yahoo's search engine works well, consistently returns the same results as google on many searches. Also finds a few references that google misses.
With google I find a lot of link pages that have nothing at all to do with what I'm seartching for.

As long as I am able to find what I need, the engine used isn't really that critical.

Ken.
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If I were a Yahoo shareholder....
Economister 19th Nov 2009
I would be looking for someone to kill about now.

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