Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Zynga's imminent IPO; Could it 'do a Groupon'?

By | December 16, 2011, 4:53am PST

Summary: Zynga is set to go public this morning. But turbulent times could spell disaster for the gaming giant. Or not. It’s all but impossible to tell.

Zynga is set to raise at least $1 billion on its U.S. stock market debut this morning.

Set to price its initial public offering of 100 million shares at $10 a share, this puts the online games maker as one of the highest flotations seen this year.

The company is valued at around $9 billion, putting Zynga in line with other publicly held companies like Electronic Arts.

Comparatively, Google’s offering in 2004 raised nearly $2 billion after it went public. Google is now worth more than $200 billion as it stands.

Though analysts predict Zynga’s shared price could rise over 20 percent before settling out at an above-IPO price, other recent flotations still mark out a path for rough times ahead.

Both Groupon and LinkedIn spectacularly dropped below their IPO price, despite surging shortly after their floatation. Pandora and Zillow also suffered huge losses for November, though many have clawed back most of their losses in December trading.

Groupon’s shares went through the roof on its first day of trading. By the end of the day, its shares had dropped from its post-IPO $30 a share to just $10 a share.

But Zynga is sitting on a cash-cow of potential advertising it has yet to tap into.

While the company only generates revenue from 3 percent of the online population it reaches, one analyst speaking to the BBC said the potential advertising revenue could be in the region of $1.5 billion.

The timing for Zynga’s IPO makes little sense. It’s coming up to the end of the year, other companies like Research in Motion struggles to stay afloat — excuse the pun — and other companies are trading below their own book value.

Facebook will be the killer public offering to watch. The timing will be crucial. Considering that Zynga currently relies on the world’s largest social network to reach its customers, the games giant has to rely on Facebook for most of its users.

Zynga has branched out to standalone applications for Apple and Android devices, as well as taking on Gogle+ and MySpace amongst others.

But Facebook undoubtedly remains the linchpin for the company’s future revenue intake.

Considering the social network still takes 30 percent of the revenue from payments through Facebook Credits, the company arguably is in a Catch-22 position. Stick with Facebook and retain its vast 850 million users, or breakaway and take all the profits for itself.

Should all go to plan, Zynga, based in San Francisco, is set to rake in $1 billion in revenue this year, after posting $12 million in profits during the third-quarter.

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Zack Whittaker, a criminologist who studied at the University of Kent, Canterbury, is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.

Disclosure

Zack Whittaker

I worked briefly with Microsoft UK in 2006 but no longer have any connection with the company. Regardless, I remain impartial and unbiased in my views.

I don't hold any stock or shares, investments or industrial secrets in any company, but have signed confidentiality agreements with a number of UK and U.S. organisations, whose names I am not at liberty to disclose.

I was involved with Kent Union, the University of Kent's student union, undertaking voluntary, non-salaried, elected positions between early 2009 and mid-2010.

No other company, body, government department, non-governmental organisation or third sector organisation employs me or pays me a salary in any capacity whatsoever.

As a freelance journalist, whenever expenses are given and taken by a company that is not CBS Interactive, these will be disclosed in each relevant post to ensure transparency.

I currently work with a UK law enforcement unit, but this is an entirely separate position which bears no connection to other work.

(Updated: 23rd October 2011)

Biography

Zack Whittaker

Zack Whittaker, criminologist who studied at the University of Kent, UK, is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.

After studying criminology at university, though still in his early-20's, he has already had a series unconventional work and voluntary positions. He has worked with researchers studying neurological illnesses like Tourette's syndrome (which he suffers from), has given lectures on the nature of disabilities in the public community, and occasionally ends up speaking on television and radio discussing the events of the day.

He first had academic work published at the age of 22, then still an undergraduate, and has been cited by a wide range of publications: from CNN, the Huffington Post, AllThingsDigital, The Atlantic Wire and CBS News.

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RE: Zynga's imminent IPO; Could it 'do a Groupon'?
gundam_0083 16th Dec
yah, zynga is useless.
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Another bubble coming?
jscott418 16th Dec
Seems to me their is no real value in these companies long term. From what I have read their is no plans addressed as to how they can expand from just being a Facebook thing. I see a big bubble poping someday soon with this kind of model.
yah, zynga is useless.

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