Thoughts on Apple TV
Summary: I'm on one of my periodic trips to Mountain View, home of Microsoft's Silicon Valley Campus and site of Google's city-wide WiFi experiment that never seems to work (believe me, I've tried).
I'm on one of my periodic trips to Mountain View, home of Microsoft's Silicon Valley Campus and site of Google's city-wide WiFi experiment that never seems to work (believe me, I've tried). This is good timing, as Los Angeles is starting to go through its yearly journey through hell's lake of fire (though depending on your political persuasion, you might be of the opinion that LA never leaves it, figuratively speaking), and though San Francisco isn't that far off from LA, it tends to be a great deal cooler. Then again, Silicon Valley tends to trap heat, so maybe I've jumped from one frying pan into another, much geekier one.
But that's not the point of this blog.
Walk around LA coffee houses and you might think that the market share positions of Apple and Microsoft were reversed. This isn't the case with most other cities (and I do notice such things), but then again, LA isn't like most other cities. LA denizens are ridiculously fashion-sensitive. It's like an American Milan, and though I try to row against the flow by occasionally venturing outside with unwashed hair packed into a baseball cap and a faded old computer conference T-Shirt (I usually wear pants, too), I find that my wardrobe has vastly improved through fashion osmosis. The pretty people make me want to have nicer clothes.
That, again, is not the reason I am writing this blog.
I've discussed in the past that Apple has hit upon a niche that is brilliant for its insight into human buying behavior. Jobs and company have identified that technology products have the capacity to be fashion accessories as much as clothes or sunglasses, and though they don't manage the profit margins of a pair of designer label sunglasses (you can't tell me that ANY sunglasses are worth $300.00), they still manage to achieve profit margins that are the envy of the industry. A previous blog post by Larry Dignan asked whether Apple should pass on the cost savings from newfound economics of scale (partly driven by its shift to an Intel architecture) to consumers.
Well, should Gucci sell pants closer to cost? Of course not. In fact, doing so might even undermine the reason people buy Gucci products in the first place. People, paradoxically enough, want expensive. It's part of the pursuit of invidious distinction.
iPod are well designed products that look great. The MacBook portable computers are similarly well designed, and look great, too. You pay for the privilege of an Apple product, but so do people who pump for $300.00 sunglasses by Marc Jacobs (which might explain a bit my technology preferences...that, and I'm a programmer). If you are a hardware company, you either want to compete on cost and ship large volumes, or ship smaller volumes with high profit margins. Apple has chosen the latter, and it's a model that works. Not many of Apple's computing peers from 20 or 30 years ago even exist today.
Considering Apple's DNA, however, where does Apple TV fit? I understand Apple's desire to be Mr. Entertainment. Though digital music purchases online constitute a tiny fraction of the songs found on a typical digital music player, iTunes - by reason of its association with the iPod - is the king of the space. That seems a tremendous "in" for Apple to ride into the living room.
Unfortunately, living room electronics don't really play to Apple's strengths. Apple makes products that people want to show others that they have. Apple laptops, iPods, and even future products, like the iPhone, clearly play to that strength.
It's harder to build street cred, however, by having an Apple TV device sitting in your living room, and walking around with a T-Shirt that says "I own an Apple TV" isn't normally considered cool (though if anyone could make it so, it would be Apple).
It's worth noting other, less image-oriented, products Apple makes. Mac OS X server has been around for quite awhile, and it's mostly notable for the fact that few pay it any attention.
Every company has a corporate DNA. Microsoft has theirs, even if, sometimes, they don't adhere to it as closely to it as I'd like. Apple has one, too. Though its possible to create a parallel way of doing things within the same company, there are certainly more hurdles to doing that, and companies usually do best when they find ways to express their corporate DNA in everything they do.
I can't fault Apple for trying its hand at living room electronics, particularly when some of its biggest competitors - particularly, Micorsoft - aim to software enable the living room, an event that would give them an advantage on par with Apple's lead in online music sales and players. You don't learn to do something well if you don't try to do it.
Still, dragons lie on that path, and Apple specializes in fighting goblins, not dragons. Just thought I'd point that out, because that's what you do in blogs.
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Talkback
Here We Go Again
"Real men use Microsoft and Macs are for girls and florists. (Not that there is
anything wrong with that)"
Wasn't that easier than another long missive about Apple's fashion sense. Please
spare us in future.
We understand the most effective way to dismiss Apple as technologists is to
praise them for their great handbags. But please do us a favor and turn glassy
eyed towards the Microsoft cash pile. Talk about that instead.
Like I've said...
Apple doesn't march around waving the technology stick in its ad campaigns AT ALL, and for good reason. That would have about as much effect on mere mortals as passing out flyers for the ingredients of an ED drug would encourage people to use Viagra.
Gucci's Scissors
will compete for attention with the developer facing technologies from Windows.
But this isn't 1995 anymore. To win over a consumer in this market is to win over
a 10 year user of digital gear. You don't do that with a fashion statement. Even if
you do, you don't keep them long.
In blog after blog, you continue to frame Apple as a purveyor of fashion
accessories. What's the rebuttal to the inference that this is spin? That Apple
themselves take this line? Could we at least agree that's a given. Is John Carroll
spin validated by the fact Apple spin plays a riffy tune in an iPod ad? How about
no.
The preoccupation with Apple seems to be an attempt to come to grips with the
incongruity between some of your conventional wisdoms, and Apple's burgeoning
success. Must be the fact that they nailed the spring colors right?. Let's not
address the looming specter of technical prowess. That can't be the reason that
Zune's lunch got eaten.
As the developer middleman is being bypassed, broad licensing is leaking through
it's cracks. A company that exalts the user is showing more growth and dynamism
than a company that exalts developers. Welcome to the new marketplace. With a
legal leash still in place, it's once again a free, open one. One where competition
happens between independent software platforms, not between "kept" OEMs
pushing a single vendor's agenda.
That's my spin.
My only worry is Apple being the dominating company...
I believe Apple would be worse than Microsoft in the "I'm a bully and you will do what I say" camp.
Absurd
monopolist to avoid the specter of a new monopoly? Ya wanna rethink that?
The Apple silo REPRESENTS open market competition. Linux is part of a public
trust and doesn't formally compete. That means currently, it's Microsoft vs Apple
period! Are you really saying you'd prefer not to vote (the only way you can, with
your dollars) by opting for Linux, or continue to support Microsoft the monopolist,
just to prevent the single open market competitor from gaining traction? Why?
because you "fear" their dominance? Afraid of being bound to the worlds best
designed hardware? I know, it's rough. The thought of not being able to swap in a
new cheap chinese motherboard is abhorant, right up until you realize that heath
kit hobby-time is a tad overrated. The Darth Vader mod for frag night doesn't fly
with adults anyway. Try a real computer for a change.
Listen, you're in charge now. Even if you've felt you've not been in the past. It's
time you realized it. My point is, consumers are regaining control. So put away the
chicken**** talk and understand that, for the price of a Mac Mini, you can stick it
to the real monopolist and endorse real open market competition again. You can
contribute to a rebalance of the tech marketplace. Pull your thumbs out and put
some support behind the free and open marketplace rather than the faked up
layer of abstraction called "platform economy". Understand for once that Apple is
the incubator ie: BeOS, Palm OS, NextOS, To a large extent, Vista also. To endorse
Apple is to endorse separate competing silos, not a platform circle-jerk with
Microsoft in the middle. Is it not clear by now that the MS business model, by
comparison, requires "partners" not competitors. You call that choice? The real
market exists in the space in between the platforms. Take a step outside the
walled city, and find it.
Evidence #1
[i]Afraid of being bound to the worlds best designed hardware? I know, it's rough. The thought of not being able to swap in a
new cheap chinese motherboard is abhorant, right up until you realize that heath kit hobby-time is a tad overrated. The Darth Vader mod for frag night doesn't fly with adults anyway. Try a real computer for a change.[/i]
You won't agree, to be sure, but Apple has a niche that would quickly grow confining if it had serious market share. Task specific devices are one thing, general purpose computing platforms another.
[i]Pull your thumbs out and put some support behind the free and open marketplace rather than the faked up layer of abstraction called "platform economy".[/i]
Yes, buy Apple where your devices choices are more constrained because Apple is primarily a hardware company with a vested interest in shipping more hardware.
Viva the one button mouse. Makes bootcamp and dual-boot windows particularly annoying on a MacBook.
[i]To endorse Apple is to endorse separate competing silos, not a platform circle-jerk with Microsoft in the middle.[/i]
Endorsing Apple is saying "I don't want to have the flexibility of a platform open to multiple hardware vendors." In truth, Linux has more in common with Microsoft's approach than Apple's, as Linux is an OS that OEMs can fit to a custom hardware solution. On a continuum, Windows lies between Linux and Apple.
Of course, I doubt we will ever face a day where a company structured in much the same way as IBM once was ever holds way again. Software has sunk hardware beneath a consistent layer. Apple now benefits from the Windows levelling effect by shifting to the same hardware architecture as underlies Windows. Smart move on their part, but don't pretend that they created the economics of scale from which they now benefit.
It's open source. You can use it now
Download Darwin and the other stuff, stick a pretty face and some other interface requirements on it and have your own operating system.
10 year user of digital gear?
a 10 year user of digital gear. You don't do that with a fashion statement. Even if you do, you don't keep them long.[/i]
Not hardly, at least if you are familiar with trends in the mobile phone market. Mobile phones get thrown away with increasing frequency. These aren't devices you keep forever. You buy them with an expectatin of upgrading these days, which creates MANY more opportunities to convince customers to switch.
[i]The preoccupation with Apple seems to be an attempt to come to grips with the incongruity between some of your conventional wisdoms, and Apple's burgeoning success.[/i]
Not really, as Apple is still a minnow in the desktop / portable computer market, and I doubt that will change much. Doesn't mean that I don't want to tease out what they are doing well. Paying attention to the competition is important. I would suggest that Apple would benefit by paying more attention to some aspects of Microsoft's approach just as much as Microsoft would benefit by paying attention to Apple's / Google's approach.
One, however, is more likely to happen than the other.
[i]As the developer middleman is being bypassed, broad licensing is leaking through it's cracks.[/i]
Oh really? Apple users now make their own software? In reality, Apple is just very good at convincing people that less software choice and higher prices are a GOOD thing. Can't fault them for doing that, but doesn't change the reality of the situation.
[i]A company that exalts the user is showing more growth and dynamism than a company that exalts developers.[/i]
I would call it figuring out aspects of human demand that other technology companies didn't understand. A company that exalted the user above all else would charge a lot less.
[i]One where competition happens between independent software platforms, not between "kept" OEMs pushing a single vendor's agenda.[/i]
Your spin on the closed Apple model is particularly odd. It's GOOD that ONE company controls both the hardware and software OS layer for the system. IBM's traditional organization is GOOD for the world.
But I don't expect anything less from you, Mr. Bardal. You're an Apple fan, and I'm a Microsoft fan.
Regarding...
Are you sure you want to tie your arguments to market share. Regardless whether
it will change or not, to believe in a free market is to believe that it can change. To
bind your points to market share is to say your opinion will change with it. Why so
eager to give up your critical judgement? Why so eager to have your opinion
defined by the opinion of others?
Regarding cost:
Pot shots regarding capital costs show a fundamental lack of understanding.
Professional billing dwarfs capital costs within two working days. If cost is not
framed in terms of productivity and TCO, you are no where near the actual issue.
A free market allows for a higher cost to be assigned to arguably better quality
products. How is this free market attribute good for everything but computers.
Are you advocating homogeneity in price? Are you really prepared to attribute
these price differences exclusively to fashion tax. I'm eager to get the answer on
record.
Do you like computers? Are they important to you personally? Do you spend a lot
of time with them? In the abstract, can the experience of computing that
consumes so much of modern life, be potentially improved with refinements that
raise the initial purchase cost of the computer? Can efficiencies be realized? Can
time be saved, through good design in both hardware and software? Can an
inexpensive Dell be improved upon?
If the answers are yes, we expect you to stop acting as a stand-in for the great
unwashed and stop invoking the opinions of others. If you agree that
improvements may be in the offing and that capital cost should be flexible to
allow this, I won't expect to hear price pot shots again. An open marketplace can
and will define the cost ceiling. Live with it, and live with a Mac users higher
expectations.
Regarding the developer middleman:
You completely misunderstood. 1 excellent app will replace 47 mediocre ones.
Fewer developers needed. Economies of scale are now being applied to 3rd party
software. Real fans of economies of scale should appreciate this.
Logic gates are not aware of their host platform. Your intimation that some 0s and
1s are serious and others are not? It's myth building.
Regarding hardware "choice":
Pick one. The one that your self admitted frugal budget allows for. Compare it's
reviews to the comparable Mac. The only comparison that matters is the 2-3 year
comparison made between any two computers on competing platforms. This is
supposed to be a discussion about computing, not shopping, profit, not price, and
logic not logos.
Regarding open architecture:
Apple's model of integrated hardware and software is a good one. So good in fact
there should be more of them. Fortunately the Apple model doesn't prevent or
discourage that. My essential issue has never been addressed. An advocate for
free and open markets has railed against antitrust despite findings of fact showing
coercion. This same advocate proposes that the abstracted economies of
"platform" trump the open market. The very existence of this psudo-market
requires the assimilation of vendors that would otherwise compete in a open
market. Talk of "choice" and "openness" is utter hypocrisy when the only real and
substantive choice left, is not between between multiple vendors in a free market
but between two markets. The real one which demands merit, and the fake one
that accepts coercion.
You'll choose the fake. I'll choose the real.
Nice Try Harry!!
Been a long time since our antitrust battles, eh?
Now, to Harry...
My subject line is meant in the most positive of lights. I enjoyed reading your insights, and agree with them. About 10 years ago I cared alot more about debate, and I wrote such Talkbacks myself. Some long-time Talkbackers may even remember the "Your Turn" article I wrote before 9/11/2001...
http://tinyurl.com/22ubql
However, convincing a self-declared "Microsoft fan" of the errors in their thinking is like convincing a "patriotic American" that the Bush Administration is screwing up big-time. I decided you can only bang your head against a blast door for so long, and I stopped participating here for quite a while.
So many Americans are choosing FAKE exclusively these days. Such is the allure of the Matrix - "ignorance is bliss". Just eat that steak, everything will be alright tomorrow. On top of that, many Americans themselves are supremely FAKE - cosmetic surgery and air brushed photos are but two examples.
Then consider our FAKE democratic republic, with our FAKE politicians. A very evil man once said, "The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it."
http://www.whale.to/b/mengele.html
So it's absolutely no surprise to me that most people will not only choose FAKE over REAL, they will defend FAKE to their deaths.
Not just better dressed
you only have time to judge Apple by its cover.
I am the Mac support guy
And, I'm not claiming that Mac's server OS is a bad OS. It's just not getting the attention of its more consumer-oriented products, and that has a lot to do with the kind of company Apple has turned itself into.
Understanding your own corporate DNA can help in new product categories. Maybe Apple is playing in servers with plans to make a user-friendly home OS, much as Microsoft has made a Home Server based on Win2003. That has a better chance of success than a pure server play, even if it runs into the same difficulties as Apple TV.
User friendly O/S?
Huh?
Not sure, but the positioning of the REST of the company is at right angles to them being much of a server force in businesses, so that is the only one that makes much sense.
The secret to Apple's success
Customers, Customers, Customers
Apple puts out good products, makes them reasonably affordable, and stands behind them. Because they do this year after year, they have fanatically loyal customers (some of whom post to this board), the vast majority of whom deliberately chose Apple over Microsoft, even though Macs are routinely more expensive than Windows PCs and there is less software available for the former.
The problem with being the default is that your customers tend to be a rather mutinous lot, even under the best of circumstances.
Coincidence does not equal causation
Perhaps the people you see using Macs actually find that the Mac serves their computing needs better than a Windows or Linux machine? After all, Los Angeles is very strong in the creative end of business, from advertising agencies to movie studios. Perhaps the needs of many of the citizens you see differ from those of your average office drone who needs a word processor and a spreadsheet and nothing more.
I live in LA
Mac has more cachet than Windows with the LA set. Fine, it's not the ONLY reason people are favoring Macs in LA coffeehouses, but it's not an insignificant part of the equation.
Hey, if I'm right, it's worth consideration. Figuring out WHY you are successful can be helpful in boosting new product categories.
The LA Set
What set, exactly, do you mean by this? The rocket scientists at JPL? The architecture students at USC? Actors in a sitcom? Surfers at Leo Carillo? Senior citizens in Tarzana?
---Fine, it's not the ONLY reason people are favoring Macs in LA coffeehouses, but it's not an insignificant part of the equation.---
How about just saying that the annoying trendy people at the annoying trendy coffee shops you frequent do annoying and trendy things? Wasn't that easier?
You're right...
For example, when it comes to posting paragraph after painful paragraph of nothingness, your talent shines through. I'm quite impressed that you managed to post 14 paragraphs on a story titled "thoughts on Apple TV" while telling your potential readers absolutely nothing about the device itself, other than the fact that you can't carry it around like an iPod (gee, you think???).
Myself and most other bloggers, on the other hand, only post something on our blogs if we actually have something useful to say (let's say its in our DNA not to annoy readers), which tends to not piss off our readers like you most likely did to a lot of your's.
Thank god Google News allows me to exclude articles written by you. This will be the last one I read.
Cheers!
Fashion or something else...?
You can go on believing that the only reason Mac users use Apple products is
fashion. On the other hand, when we see stuff like this on the Windows side:
http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20070422083715451
it makes our choice real easy.