Windows Azure is much more important than Windows 7

Summary: Windows 7 gets all the blogger attention, which makes sense to some extent, as much revenue and developer mindshare is bound up in the success of Windows. Microsoft, however, clearly gave Windows Azure priority at last week's PDC, which is indicative of the importance the company places on its "cloud-based" future.

If you were to base your opinion on what was the most important announcement at Microsoft's Professional Developers' Conference last week in Los Angeles, you might conclude that it was Windows 7. To a certain extent, that makes sense. If Windows Vista proved a difficult operating system for customers and reflected negatively on Microsoft, then its successor is of particular importance for the company. Windows doesn't just represent a large portion of the company's revenues (which it does). It also represents Microsoft's ability to lay claim to developer mindshare.

I noted back in December of 2007 that Microsoft MUST make user experience (which includes interface) a priority. I thought then that putting Sinofsky in charge of the Windows development group and Julie Larson-Green in charge of the user experience for next generation Windows were inspired choices, given what they had done with Office 2007. That confidence seems to be born out in the directions they took with Windows 7, as revealed at the PDC.

However, it's important to note that the keynote related to Windows 7 was presented on day TWO of the conference. At a conference whose sole purpose is to present to the public development futures at Microsoft, Windows Azure's role in the opening keynote is expressive of an internal ranking among Microsoft executives that is the reverse of the emphasis given by bloggers. Windows 7 is incredibly important, to be sure, but in terms of Microsoft's long-term vision of itself, I think Windows Azure is ranked higher.

Azure is clearly something that Microsoft has been working on for awhile. Analysts have questioned why Microsoft was spending billions on large server farms in far-flung locations, possibly thinking that the company was dumping cement trucks of cash down the MSN well. Windows Azure pulled the curtain back on those expenditures.

I think my attempt last week at a pithy definition of Windows Azure is still apt. Windows Azure is "a framework that allows you to scale from 10 users to 10 million users without additional coding." Granted, you aren't going to take an existing application and just drop it into the Azure "cloud" and expect to achieve the scales promised by Azure. You have to design to Azure abstractions, and that takes work, but if you do the work, you will have an application that can scale instantaneously. Microsoft, in other words, is trying to provide abstractions and services designed to make achieving those scales a lot easier.

My biggest concern, as noted last week, was whether people would be willing to write to an abstraction that results in an application that can only be hosted on a Microsoft server farm. I'm willing to modify that a bit as my appreciation of the scale of the Azure system has grown. At a Thursday session, an engineer working on the Service Bus, which is an essential part of the naming, location and communications infrastructure that drives the Azure system, explained that it has a self-organizing ring architecture which requires a MINIMUM of 50 nodes in order to achieve baseline levels of fault tolerancy.  Suffice to say, there will be many, many such rings in a production Azure system.

Windows Azure server farms will have so many machines that fixing problems in individual servers becomes an unacceptable cost. When a system experiences problems, the machine will first be "reimaged" (the "ring" will automatically work around a failing computer). The first step, however, also ends up being the last step, as if reimaging fails, you don't have server administrators RDPing into the system to try to diagnose problems. There are simply too many machines to make that remotely practical. The machine will be pulled out of the farm and sent back to the vendor to be refurbished.

In other words, hosting Windows Azure would be a hard thing to do for anyone but the most well-capitalized hosting provider. Scale, in other words, is paramount, and few companies could easily achieve those scales as third-party Azure hosts...at least in the near term.  Never say never, in my opinion, and I still think many will want third party Azure hosts to appear eventually.  On the other hand, given Microsoft's intent to roll innovations from the Azure side of the house into its server products, perhaps that is where things will evolve.

Microsoft does emphasize Azure's ability to interoperate with non-Azure business systems. They allow users to easily "plug in" to their own authentication and authorization system, as an example. What that implies is that companies who wish to use Azure wouldn't have to move everything to Azure servers. They can figure out the bits that need the kind of scalability and availability that Azure provides, and keep the rest either in-house, or at a hosting provider that does more traditional kinds of hosting.

Windows Azure, in other words, is simply another tool in the development toolkit. Granted, Microsoft views it as an important tool, ranking it alongside Microsoft flagships such as desktop and server Windows. It is, however, just one of many Microsoft development tools. Parts of an application targeted at large numbers of users will be hosted on Azure, and other parts will be hosted by enterprises themselves.

Anyway, I think that rounds out my thoughts from last week. I would have finished up yesterday, but Barack Obama was busy getting himself elected president of the United States (I had to wait in line yesterday morning, which cut into my blogging time), a result that I find gratifying even as I rejoice at the end of an incredibly long election season.

Topics: Windows, Microsoft, Operating Systems, Servers, Software

John Carroll

About John Carroll

John Carroll has delivered his opinion on ZDNet since the last millennium. Since May 2008, he is no longer a Microsoft employee. He is currently working at a unified messaging-related startup.

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14 comments
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  • In the next 12 months . . .

    WM7 is way more important than Azure and W7 combined.
    M$ has to right this sinking WM ship. Apple is eating
    their lunch, and now Google has entered the fray with
    their very compelling G1 with more to follow including
    Motorola, et al. M$ needs to partner more closely with
    2-3 leading vendors and design and engineer more
    compelling mobile phone devices, specifically ones
    that are 100% consumer focused.

    Sure, Azure is important to M$ success when you look
    2-5 years down the road, but WM7 and beyond had better
    get a lot better and cheaper to ensure they can
    undercut Apple and Google if only by $20-30 per phone.

    And please hurry up and either buy Yahoo for crying
    out loud.
    jjworleyeoe
    • What are you smoking?

      WM7 isn't more important than either Windows 7 or Azure. And if MS cuts the cost even more, currently $5 per handset, then where is the money for MS? They could license Exchange connectivity to the other guys and make money just fine. You're delusional if you think the consumer market should be more important to MS than the enterprise.
      LiquidLearner
      • A does of reality

        There are two markets for smartphones, enterprise and
        consumer. The enterprise market is mostly tapped out.
        Certainly, companies will refresh hardware and some
        may jump ship from RIM to M$ or to Apple or whatever.
        However, the consumer market is where I've read that
        there's very low penetration in terms of smartphones
        and where the growth potential is for M$ et al. I've
        read that WM costs between $8-15 per phone. As the
        consumer smartphone plunges towards $100 over the next
        couple of years, that fee will have to move to $5-10.
        And no, you're completely wrong in terms of the time-
        frame that I qualified my post (i.e., 12 months).
        Azure won't even be out of beta in 12 months and W7,
        at best, will only have been on the market for 3-4
        months. Like any M$ O/S, it will take at least one
        back to school and Christmas cycle to get sufficient
        numbers out there for consumers to weigh in on how
        good or bad W7 actually is. I've used it for 10 months
        now since SP1 released on a desktop that merits only a
        2.0 on the user experience scale with absolutely zero
        issues. I haven't purchased a M$ O/S in more than
        eight years, due to my having run a M$ handout version
        of W2KPro, and I can honestly say that the $73
        education edition upgrade for the premium edition was
        well worth the money. Vista is way better than all of
        the ABM's would have everyone believe. Certainly,
        that's one person's opinion of 180 million copies of
        Vista being used worldwide.
        jjworleyeoe
    • Can't disagree

      I sincerely hope they will give the same kind of UI treatment to Windows Mobile 7 as they are giving to Windows 7.

      User experience matters.
      John Carroll
  • Why?

    [i]My biggest concern, as noted last week, was whether
    people would be willing to write to an abstraction that
    results in an application that can only be hosted on a
    Microsoft server farm.[/i]

    Why are you concerned? developers seem to have no
    problems making their applications more and more
    dependent on Windows only features - games developers
    have been more than happy to throw away portability in
    favour of DirectX, throw away multi-platformness of Java
    in favour of single platform .NET (mono doesn't count, its a
    friggin joke).

    You're suddenly now raising concerns over 'vendor lock in'
    when developers like you were happy to suck down the
    cool aide for years? Talk about a contradiction - especially
    when developers like yourself raise these concerns and yet
    are still exclusively developing for Windows.

    Colour me confused - you've now realised that Microsoft
    has screwed you in a corner. How long did it take you, as a
    loyal Microsoft disciple, to realise that? I can hear the
    spitting and cursing from the Microsoft fanboys as they
    label you a Judus.
    Kaiwai
    • Fair enough, but...

      ...I can at least host my application on my servers, or someone else's servers, or a cluster of servers run by hundreds of third parties.

      Microsoft is a framework vendor, and lots of people can run that framework. For the first time, Microsoft is the only one running the framework.

      Apple users might be more familiar with this business model, but I am not.
      John Carroll
      • What benefits

        What benefits do you get by having your own in house
        hardware? to whose benefit? again, you talk about vendor
        lock in - how is vendor lock in to a platform you host any
        better or worse than vendor lock in to a service provider? If
        you were so concerned about vendor lock in - why are you
        using Microsoft software in the first place? why not use
        Solaris + Glassfish if you want complete control and no
        subject to the whims of Microsoft?

        You're as bad as those who talk about choice in the PC
        world - you have 4 different vendors, all selling pretty
        much an identical experience, how is that beneficial over
        Apple? again, I'm confused when you talk about vendor
        lock in - you fail to see that this is no worse than the
        current situation.

        Maybe you should be asking yourself as to why you've
        become so dependent on one vendor.
        Kaiwai
        • Because

          ...nobody makes as good of a framework as Microsoft (nor supports it as well through great tools). Their development ecosystem is second to none, and I don't like using second-rate frameworks, even if they are free.

          Granted, my opinions are MY opinions, and I'm sure they are wildly controversial among those who don't think Microsoft's frameworks are better. But, they are mine, and I suspect that it the case with a LOT of developers who favor Windows. I entered the Microsoft ecosystem with a natural tendency to dislike Microsoft (I came from the UNIX world). I found it preferable, and stayed there.

          As for why I prefer being able to have more competition in hosting arrangements, like I said, that has been the norm in the Microsoft ecosystem. Microsoft is a software vendor who licenses to hardware manufacturers (and by extension, it has always been the case that I could host on Windows with non-Microsoft providers). In this blog, I saw a certain rationale to Azure being Microsoft-only in the near term (you have to build the tool first, and Azure is rather a complex tool), though I think more components should flow out to Windows so at least parts can be hosted outside the Microsoft cloud.

          If you write to GTK, you are dependent on GTK. If you write to Java, you are dependent on Java.

          I write (mostly) to .NET, and when I'm not doing that, usually to Windows. That is a choice based on the perceived value I see in the Microsoft developer ecosystem. I pay extra to be free of the nonsense of other platforms.

          Again, my choice...one you obviously don't wish to make yourself.
          John Carroll
          • A Couple of Points

            1) Java is opensource - you aren't stuck with one particular
            platform, Don't find Linux up to the task, then move to
            Windows. Windows isn't doing the job then move to
            Solaris, Solaris not doing it you expected then move to
            Itanium with OpenVMS if you wish. The world is your
            oyster when you go with Java. If you go with .NET, you
            have either Windows, Windows, Windows or Windows.

            It is about ensuring that the framework you're developing
            for isn't a single platform framework. Simply screaming
            'great framework' is a pretty terrible argument when the
            trade off is a loss of mobility when it comes to server
            platforms.

            2) What is second rate about Glassfish or JBoss? have you
            used Netbeans?

            3) You see value, I see being locked out of future
            opportunities and putting all your eggs in one basket. You
            maybe happy to gamble you future on the success or
            failure of one platform but if I was in your shoes I'd sooner
            spread the risk over a larger area - knowing my product
            can run on what ever platform becomes the favour of the
            moment - be it Mac OS X, Linux, BSD, Solaris, OpenVMS
            etc. etc. If the price means that Java is the only option
            because Microsoft stubbornly refuses to provide .NET
            Framework for non-Microsoft platforms - then I say its a
            small price to pay for that insurance policy against getting
            royally screwed in the future.
            Kaiwai
          • Betting on the future

            In return for unique capabilities and good tools to use them, you're observing that Mr. Carroll has to expect that Microsoft will remain a significant part of the market for which he develops.

            That seems a reasonable wager, no?

            Couldn't Azure be self-reinforcing, a reason for developers to pay attention to Microsoft and thus assure that Microsoft remains a substantial part of the relevant markets?

            That kind of advantage, called the network effect, was part of the reason for Microsoft's initial success, and the rationale appears to continue.
            Anton Philidor
          • Why?

            "Granted, my opinions are MY opinions, and I'm sure they
            are wildly controversial among those who don't think
            Microsoft's frameworks are better."

            For cloud hosted applications what is better about .NET
            frameworks over Java EE. They're must be heaps given it's
            such a clear choice;-)

            As far as I can see the MS Azure "platform" is what many
            of us have been doing for years plus a simple front-end so
            the MSCE can operate it (you know click, click, click until
            something works).

            I agree Azure is more important than windows 7 because it
            is a chance for MS to grow profits from something other
            than Office and windows. Given they've failed in every
            non-monopoly market they've entered it doesn't look good
            for this one. However the MSCEs continue their rise into
            management and the despite a history of failed projects
            they're sure to get another go - this time pushing the
            benefits of cloud computing.
            Richard Flude
          • Yes!!!

            Finally a ZDNET blogger willing to state that microsoft's development tools and platforms are worth the price!!

            I have yet to see an open source development environment with the ease of use, clarity of documentation, power and flexibility of Visual Studio.
            medezark@...
          • Agree

            Visual Studio rocks. It's the only development environment I've encountered that really turns me on to use.

            Azure is going to be big. I think that the big developments in .NET... WCF, Silverlight, Azure platform form a very coherent and intelligent strategy. MS v the rest is a mute point to me. Each to their own, but there enough developers on board that they'll have no interest in anything else. And the fact that the Express versions of VS are all free is insane.

            The pro/anti MS arguments I hear often sound a bit like religious fervour to me. I suspect people actually tend to go in the direction that at some point their skills/experience began taking them. I personally feel no need whatsoever to go beyond C#/.NET. None whatsoever.
            David S M
  • In other news

    Shortly after MS's latest disappoint results MSFT share price
    has dropped to the same it was in Mar 1998. By comparison
    Apple's has gone from USD5 to USD100 over this same
    period.

    The emperor really has no clothes.

    The story is sure to be picked up by ZDNet any day now;-)
    Richard Flude