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John Morris & Sean Portnoy

Tablet troubles: Can anyone challenge Apple?

By | July 19, 2011, 1:08pm PDT

Summary: This afternoon Apple is expected to announce record iPad sales. At the same time sales of competing tablets seem to be falling short of lofty expectations. Why can’t anyone build a better tablet?

This afternoon, when Apple reports its latest quarterly results, the company is expected to announce record iPad sales. Analysts predict that Apple sold more than 7.7 million tablets in the first full quarter since the March introduction of the iPad 2.

At the same time, sales of competing tablets seem to be falling short of lofty expectations. At the beginning of the year forecasts for tablets were running as high as 70-80 million units. The category is still growing quickly (from a tiny installed base), but over the past couple of weeks I’ve heard several companies and market research firms suggest that total sales may come in closer to 60 million units. IDC, which has been more conservative, may turn out to be closest. Earlier this month the firm slightly raised its estimate for 2011 sales to 53.5 million tablets. Yesterday RIM was forced to deny rumors that sales of the PlayBook have been so slow that the company may cease production of the WiFi version (the 4G version has been delayed until the fall).

The first wave of competing tablets-from the Android 3.0 Honeycomb tablets such as the Motorola Xoom to RIM’s BlackBerry PlayBook to HP’s webOS-powered TouchPad–have received lukewarm reviews. Even those that get solid reviews seem to run into shipping delays or technical glitches. Toshiba’s Thrive tablet, for example, sometimes fails to wake up from sleep (the company is promising a fix).

Mediocre reviews aside, there are lots of explanations for the slow start. First, rival tablets were priced too high putting them head-to-head with the superior iPad 2, though that could be changing with lower-priced devices on the way such as Vizio’s VTAB and Archos’s G9 series. Second, other tablets can’t match the iOS application ecosystem and support for Adobe Flash content hasn’t turned out to be the killer app RIM and others expected. Third, the competition lacks a compelling retail channel like the Apple Store to promote its tablets. Finally, the failure of Intel and Microsoft to come up with a compelling tablet platform to date has left device makers to try to market Windows tablets as niche products for business.

Perhaps these are just growing pains, and the introduction of thinner and cheaper tablets, with a broader selection of apps, will quickly turn things around. It took a while for Android smartphones to catch on too (remember those T-Mobile G1 reviews?). But it could also be that Apple has built an insurmountable lead in tablets.

What do you think competitors need to do to top the iPad? Tell me in Talkback below.

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John Morris is a former executive editor at CNET Networks and senior editor at PC Magazine.

Disclosure

John Morris

John Morris is a former executive editor at CNET Networks and senior editor at PC Magazine. He now works for a private investment firm, which may at any time invest in companies whose products are discussed in this blog, and no disclosure of securities transactions will be made. No investment advice is offered in this blog. All duties are disclaimed.

Biography

John Morris

John Morris is a former executive editor at CNET Networks and senior editor at PC Magazine. He now works for a private investment firm, which may at any time invest in companies whose products are discussed in this blog, and no disclosure of securities transactions will be made. No investment advice is offered in this blog. All duties are disclaimed.

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RE: Tablet troubles: Can anyone challenge Apple?
non-biased 22nd Jul
@DigiMediaMan First you bash the auther for using his opinion in the article then you turn around and do the EXACT SAME THING in the next line with ... In fact, desired features have already come to dictate hardware superiority, and WebOS, for example, appears to be a superior OS...
All I can say is I'm very happy with my 16 GB white iPad 2 with 3g. I'm also very happy in the Apple ecosystem. Now also keep in mind I'm a Windows user, I have a WHS machine, 3 WIN 7 pc's and my life depends on Excel...

HS
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Maybe you can explain....
Cayble 20th Jul
@Hasam1991
...what in the world these dozens of millions of purchasers are using these tablets for?

Things that make me wonder about this start with the fact that for an item that has sold so many millions I hardly see one in public. For example; iPhones, wait at a downtown street corner to cross the road and I can see many in a crowd standing there fidgeting with their iPhone but not a person hauling along an iPad. I have seen them in public, just few and far between for a item selling in the many millions.

I do know a couple people who have bought iPads but they just have them laying around the house mostly because, to put it simply, the iPad didn't live up to the expectation they had hoped for, as in it being like a laptop, which an iPad is not, at all.

In fact, just about anyone I have ever read about making anything close to $500 worth of use out of an i|Pad is always someone who had a very particular reason or two why an iPad is useful for them, but doesn't translate to the average person who would use a laptop.

So your very happy with your iPad, please explain if your an "average" user without specialty uses for an iPad that has some reason or explanation as to how Joe Average could justify spending the big bucks on such a device?
@Cayble On the Metro train in Washington, DC, at rush hour on any given day I can look around and see 3 to 5 iPads within 20 feet of my seat.
@Cayble Do you take public transportation. Living in NYC, I look around, and I can spot quite a few in transport. Granted, they aren't as popular in public, but everyone I know that has one, loves it.

People in NYC, I assume, are more hesitant to bring it out in the open often just because of crime.
@Cayble Each persons needs or wants are going to be different and anybody that bought any tablet thinking it was a laptop should have done more research before buying. I could give a whole list of reasons why the iPad is worth the money to me but I would be wasting my time. What I want or need does not necessarily mean anything to you and if you are set on being against the iPad you would dismiss them no matter how valid they were.
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Apple has got good at maintaining its first-mover advantage. Companies that really want to challenge need to get into a new category with a compelling product _before_ Apple does, not simply imitate.
@MartinMTurner

Very True!
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As some have said....there is no tablet market, there is an iPad market. Similar to the iPod.
Think back to another time, where a certain company spotted Apple in big lead in an emerging computing market... hmmm, the tablet race will begin to heat up as soon as Microsoft arrives with Windows 8. If Microsoft and its army of developers and boat loads of cash can't create a compelling platform to the iPad, Apple will rule for awhile because none of these other me too tablets currently offer anything that the iPad doesn't already have.
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@rwalrond You don't remember it the same way I do.
@rwalrond
Have you seen where WP7 is today? MS is actually making more money from Android.
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JoeHTH Updated - 20th Jul
  • Flagged
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Just like the Zune....
linux for me 20th Jul
@rwalrond
The same thing was said about the Zune too.
@rwalrond Didn't we hear the same thing about WP7? How has that worked out so far? I am not saying that they won't be a big success I am just saying there is no guarantee.
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Linux Geek Updated - 20th Jul
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ALISON SMOCK Updated - 20th Jul
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No
toddybottom 19th Jul
There are only going to be 2 types of tablets that will have a chance at any measure of "success":
* Inexpensive Android tablets that will make no profit (assuming Apple doesn't sue every Android maker into oblivion). They will be hated by everyone who buys them.
* Expensive Windows 8 tablets that will see small sales to the few who need the extra utility not offered by the iPad. They will be loved by everyone who buys them but will not "challenge" Apple because Apple will not field a competitor to Microsoft in this market.

HP and RIM will both leave the tablet market within 2 years (HP may build Windows 8 tablets though).
@toddybottom Sorry, but Windows 8 tablets will be no more expensive than iPads, and they absolutely will compete in the same market.
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Very doubtful ....
wackoae 19th Jul
@JoeHTH You forget that any Win tablet will have what is known as the Microsoft tax (cost of the OS license). With razor thin revenues at iPad cost, that tax will surely add $50 to $100 to the total cost.
@JoeHTH I agree with pricing, the bottom end won't be any more expensive than an iPad, although decent performance models will be more expensive.

But they won't be competing in the same market - there will be some overlap, but the Window tablets bring many things that severly restrict the Apple (and Android) tablets.

We need IP-65 and IP-69 compliant tablets for some tasks - I can't see an iPad working, after being drenched in animal blood, then hosed down with a high pressure water jet.

Likewise, other tasks we have require full Java capability, which neither iOS nor Android can (currently) offer.

There are lots of vertical markets, where the iPad and current Android devices can't compete.

The "cheap" Windows 7 tablets, using Atom technology are too underpowered and aren't doing MS's reputation in this direction any favours.
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You got that right - think net book
Schoolboy Bob 20th Jul
@JoeHTH
Net books took off once they were all Windows (earlier they were trying to make them cheaper with Linux, but that didn't work). The same can happen with tablets. They will be MUCH cheaper than they are today - $200. Microsoft doesn't get much of that up front for Windows (nowhere near the $50-100 suggested by someone), but they will make it up in volume. For them, it's software only. That's how it worked for net books, and many vendors sold scads of those.
@JoeHTH I agree with this assessment. Additionally, give me a tablet where I can make Powerpoints, Excel, Outlook, Word, etc. - and I will be having one for sure (at least if my employer pays for it =] )
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No one needs to challenge Apple. The tablet market is a fad, eventually Apple will find this out the hard way when they have more inventory than they can get rid of. People are going to stop buying these tablets soon enough when they realize they don't need them and start having posture problems later on.
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@LoverockDavidson Err... So for the sake of their posture they'll go back to a system where the bottom of the screen is an inch from the keyboard? You must be a very oddly shaped person - because for human beings such an arrangement is an ergonomic disaster!
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@jeremychappell
They will go back to laptops and desktop PC's where are a heck of a lot more ergonomic than a tablet. Both will allow you to sit up right. The tablet makes you sit in a very awkward bent over position as Steve Jobs demonstrated when he announced the iPad.
@LoverockDavidson
Did you see the quarterly earnings today???
@Hasam1991
profit per device.

Apple can sell 20 million iPhones and pull in far better profits then HTC can selling 20 million units, as Apple's markup is greater.

It doesn't mean people aren't buying HTC or Motorola, it means Apple is earning more per phone.

Same with tablets. Dell, HP, and Acer should just get together and sell one great Android tablet instead of competing against each other to where profit per tablet is 5 dollars.

Make something that will earn $80.00 a tablet and slpit the profits.
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@Hasam1991
Yep, soon the tablets will be leveling off then declining. You might want to consider selling your AAPL stock if you have any.
@LoverockDavidson
Either you've never tried one, or you don't like to have fun. As my aunt said to my uncle, "Come to the party!"
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@billblass2
Tried one, used it for all of 1 minute then decided it was a worthless device. It didn't offer me anything.
@LoverockDavidson
There's your problem: Bias + only 1 minute of use = No iPad Joy.

The longer I have my iPad, the more use I discover. Books, Video, Games, Note Taking, etc.

The Posture thing is stupid. Lounging on my couch and resting my iPad on a knee is comfortable. Sitting on a plane, resting it on my tray table reading/listening to music is also comfortable. And no risk of the bozo in front reclining his seat back and crushing my laptop screen.
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@LoverockDavidson Posture will not be a problem for those who use a tablet correctly. It is not a laptop or desktop replacement. It is a consumption alternative. If I'm riding the subway and want to read (not write or otherwise create a whole lot), a laptop is cumbersome overkill, but a tablet works just fine with no funny angles or peripherals to worry about. When I get back to my office and wish to create content, a laptop or desktop is the proper choice.

This isn't complicated.

http://nontechietalk.blogspot.com
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@Non-techie Talk
Posture is a problem as there is no good comfortable way to hold the tablet even if you are just reading off of it.
@LoverockDavidson I do give you some credit for standing your ground even against the overwhelming evidence against just about everything you post. That being said I don't think I have ever come across anybody that is so unwilling to even acknowledge the validity of another point of view. I guess I should be surprised since in another post of yours I read earlier you stated that yes, the world does revolve around you.
the moment they are all stuck waiting on W8 to RTM. Android is just not competitive (cough lame). The game just hasnt really started yet...
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"Superior iPad 2" is relative.
snaconst 19th Jul
Superior is relative. The Galaxy Tab 10.1" has better hardware than the iPad 2, and in my experience, runs better.

I have long said that the difference between these 2 tablets is what you want to get from them. If you want more entertainment, go iPad. If you want better productivity, go Android.

iPad has movies, Netflix, and app selection (some people would say app clutter). There are more established app writers for iOS, which is changing to have more Android app writers.

The Galaxy Tab came with a solid office apps program, incorporates widgets that give you data faster and control actions easier, and has a more solid notification system. Plus, the Android ecosystem allows it to go somewhere, whereas Apple will stay the same with minor updates.

All in all, the tablets are equals, but stronger in each of their specialties. The problem is education. Education about what is out on the market and what the difference between the two tablets are. The challenge is not about bringing a device to market, but to make it as well known. Users also need to stop wanting to be spoon-fed. Just because it takes a little effort doesn't mean that it's not user friendly.

What will bring down the iPad is when someone brings a reasonable tablet to the market that's a full computer, not a mobile OS.
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@snaconst

The GPU on the Tegra II is anemic at best.

"Plus, the Android ecosystem allows it to go somewhere, whereas Apple will stay the same with minor updates."

The funny thing is Android's biggest weakness is that there is no eco-system. Devices are stand-alone devices with almost no 3rd party device support. Worse yet, is the upgrade history on Android devices, even Google's own Nexus, is sad at best.

"What will bring down the iPad is when someone brings a reasonable tablet to the market that's a full computer, not a mobile OS."

You still don't understand the tablet market.
@Bruizer Are you kidding? You can connect more devices to my XOOM than you can your iPad 2.

I am not saying these were designed for the XOOM but Android 3.2 supports more printers, more external drives, Controllers, Cameras and the like!

You know what you get with the iPad 2? A million different docks for the most part and a few select Apple dongles that allows other devices to connect.
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Not kidding at all.
Bruizer 19th Jul
@Petter Perry

You really should learn about an iPad (I know you claim to own one but it is questionable based on your complete lack of knowledge). Its that million of docks thing that makes you loose. How is RAW camera support coming on Android? wink

It only took them 5 months to get the SD card supplied working. The Xoom is a failed basket case that would have had a market chance had it not been shipped 6 months early. They were hoping for suckers to pony up $700 to be beta testers I guess.

Based on Google data, it looks like they finally got about 1,000,000 Honeycomb devices out to consumers. In 5 months. Pretty sad when you look at the deliveries from suppliers to distributors. 7 months of channel inventory. OUCH.
@Bruizer You have no clue man, step outside of that twisted land known as the walled Garden, The XOOM is selling and selling well but you're getting your news from ZDNET!

As for Raw support, perhaps you are unaware that most RAW converters had their roots in Open Source Code... RAWDroid is on the market and I can connect my Sony NEX 3 right to the Tablet.

Now as for the accessories, Outside of the case and invisishield there wasn't much interesting for the iPad. Even MacMall has only cases, stands, head phones and dongles / cables. Maybe you could Man Up and show us all these wonderful unique iPad accessories.

Also not sure about which Google Data you're referring to but if you think these aren't selling then wait and you will see.

As for the Tegra 2, if the benchmark apps are updated with CUDA Support you would see the Tegra 2 is nowhere near as Anemic as you guys believe.
@snaconst

I'll understand the desire for a tablet to do everything a 'full computer' does. However, I personally like my iPad because doesn't do everything a full computer does! Checking Facebook, twitter, reader, e-mails, netflix and...

When doing the same with my windows laptop, give it sec...urg... wait... Okay, I'm ready to go... No wait, the system needs to reboot (updates)... I know I should have shut off auto update. Okay, watching my movie now... what the heck, netflix keeps pausing... Ah right, HD keeps crunching, probably time to clean up the Harddrive, defrag, run anti spyware, reboot, do updates and....

I love the iPad....
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True... but:
snaconst 20th Jul
@tdrbiz

What I'm saying is that a true computer in tablet form will be the thing to take iPad's dominance down. We don't see a lot of those now (HP Slate) because of what you're saying, boot up, etc. But when they make a tablet that has full computer functionality with a mobile on/off/update/pick-up-and-use experience, that is what will be the new market leader.
Who are the ones with stock Loverock.....? I still wonder why some can't give Apple the credit for creating a new market and a sound business model. Other companies like MS and others did great things as well, but wat Apple is doing the last years.....
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@DDiGK
New market? What new market do you speak of? Give it a little more time and you will see Apple's inventory will have plenty of tablets sitting in the warehouse because everyone who wanted a tablet has one now.
@DDiGK
Tablets were there even before iPad. These include Apple's own Newton. So Tablet market is not new. What iPad brought is same user interface that was successful at iPhone to iPods and iPads and now that is new.
'tabulae', not 'tabul'. The site didn't accept the ae-ligature ... singular 'tabula', pluralis 'tabulae'.
I'll tell you why nobody is beating Apple in tablet sales. Only Apple fans WANT this kind of device. Apple's win here is purely marketing combined with people who love Apple binging on their products!
@Imrhien

This nonsense is recycled every few years with every successful Apple product. Oh yeah? Oh yeah? I'll tell you why the iPod, iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad is selling like hot cakes. It's the marketing, yeah!! And Apple fanatics! Yes, thats it! Oh and they're all sheeps following the heard. I came up with this all by myself. sad
@Imrhien If true it must REALLY chap your a$$ that the Apple fan base seems to be growing every quarter happy
I think the real edge that Apple has here, aside from being first to the market, is that the product works. With the exception of a few applicatons, apps in iOS don't run all at once. This gives and a batter life boost, and makes the iPad fast because it's not working on other things in the background.
@DigiMediaMan First you bash the auther for using his opinion in the article then you turn around and do the EXACT SAME THING in the next line with ... In fact, desired features have already come to dictate hardware superiority, and WebOS, for example, appears to be a superior OS...

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