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David Gewirtz

By next year, the Kindle will be free (chart)

By | October 28, 2011, 5:13am PDT

Summary: It’s almost undeniable. By next year, it looks like — for at least one model — the Kindle will be free.

Despite my best intentions, I let myself get talked into buying a Kindle Fire. My ancient bedroom-reader iPhone is finally giving up the ghost and I really do enjoy reading using the Kindle format. I don’t like e-ink, but I thought the Fire might both let me read my novels and have some other uses.

This, despite my own set of well-thought-out reasons not to buy a Fire:

See also: 12 reasons you might NOT want to buy a Kindle Fire

I guess I am a tech junkie after all. But pulling the trigger on the Fire got me thinking. Kindle prices have dropped a lot. After all, the Fire was $199, and the original Kindle was twice that. How far have they dropped?

This chart shows it all:

Notice the trend line for the blue bars, representing the base Kindle model. It’s almost undeniable. By next year, it looks like — for at least one model — the Kindle will be free.

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David Gewirtz, Distinguished Lecturer at CBS Interactive, is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets.

Disclosure

David Gewirtz

At various times during his adult life, David has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, and has been disappointed by both. He is deeply disturbed by how partisanship has come before patriotism in America, which gives him the freedom to pick on both sides.

David is a frequent guest on TV and radio stations across America and can usually be heard or seen on-the-air at least once a week. He writes weekly commentary and analysis for CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 and has been interviewed by Fox News, CNN, various ABC and NBC affiliates, and Canada’s Global TV. He has been a featured guest on National Public Radio and has also been featured on Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Liberty where his commentaries on technology, industry, and emerging nations have been broadcast into 46 countries (all in their own unique translations).

David is the executive director of U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute, a nonprofit research and policy organization. He is the Cyberterrorism Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security and a special contributor to Frontline Security Magazine. He is a member of the FBI’s InfraGard program, the security partnership between the FBI and industry. David is also a member of the U.S. Naval Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association, the leading defense industry association promoting national security.

David is an advisory board member for the Technical Communications and Management Certificate program at the University of California, Berkeley extension. He is also a member of the instructional faculty at the University of California, Berkeley extension.

David’s “day job” is as publisher and editor-in-chief of ZATZ publishing, an online publisher of technical magazines. Other than than his ownership stake in Component Enterprises, Inc. (the parent company of ZATZ), David has no additional industry investments.

ZATZ has many advertisers who do, in part, provide for David’s lush income and extravagant lifestyle. Most of them are IBM and Lotus aftermarket suppliers, some of them make goodies for Microsoft Outlook, and a few make all sorts of strange mobile devices and add-on products. David has been a regular judge of the IBM Awards, but has no formal financial interest in or with IBM.

Because the ZATZ online magazines often review products, David and ZATZ are sent an overwhelming stream of unsolicited, silly, and often useless products to review. Because they’re such a pain to track and ship back, these products often wind up in a dumpster or fill up the corner of a large closet. Although David has no plans to review products in connection to his ZDNet blog, if he does do a product review, he will disclose any relationship completely in that posting.

Both through ZATZ and independently, David derives a small income through various advertising and sales relationships with Amazon.com and Google. These are minor relationships and they will not impede his willingness or ability to chastise either company should they deserve it.

David has many other business relationships, but none of them relate to anything he covers in his ZDNet blog. David does have a bit of the sales-guy bug and if he’s not doing a sales deal with someone at least once a month, he goes through withdrawal. He has a number of consulting clients, but none of them relate to anything he covers for ZDNet (and if they ever do, he will either disclose that fact, or decline to write about them).

Back in the 1980s, David held the unusual title of “Godfather” at Apple. He has written and published 40 incredibly simplistic applications for Apple’s iPhone.

Although David is forbidden to disclose the terms of his iPhone developer agreement, he isn’t drinking the Apple Kool Aid, will never be confused with a metrosexual, and feels free to mock Apple, and Apple users, any time the occasion permits, on alternate Tuesdays, or if he’s bored.

Biography

David Gewirtz

In addition to hosting the ZDNet Government and ZDNet DIY-IT blogs, CBS Interactive's Distinguished Lecturer David Gewirtz is an author, U.S. policy advisor, and computer scientist. He is featured in The History Channel special The President's Book of Secrets, is one of America's foremost cyber-security experts, and is a top expert on saving and creating jobs. He is also director of the U.S. Strategic Perspective Institute as well as the founder of ZATZ Publishing.

David is a member of FBI InfraGard, the Cyberwarfare Advisor for the International Association for Counterterrorism & Security Professionals, a columnist for The Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, and has been a regular CNN contributor, and a guest commentator for the Nieman Watchdog of the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University. He is the author of Where Have All the Emails Gone?, the definitive study of email in the White House, as well as How To Save Jobs and The Flexible Enterprise, the classic book that served as a foundation for today's agile business movement.

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qzmhaqc 55 qyi
bmakrekdw3301-24379004643097755216206771193689 22nd Nov
vfntny,uvcepzse86, rzpds.
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Contributr
Free is the only way I will ever have one. Actually, if they really want adoption, they (Amazon) would offer the Kindle for $99 and give you a $99 ebook credit for books.
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@khess Let me guess, you like the Apple shiny icons over the Kindle or Android shiny icons. Its a silly argument whether you side with Android or Apple. They both have good software, each works well as a reader, each has the same store. Even if it were free, I doubt you'd take one. You're a product of marketing, as most of us are, and cannot stomach using anything other than what you find precious. When you choose style of cost, you simply pay more for something that is nothing more. That's the brilliance of marketing and why some of us make a fortune off people like you. Thanks.
@A Gray I really think $99 is the break through price needed for someone to sew up a vast retail market with a quality product. I think Kindle Fire is poised to be that tablet. Look at how the HP's sold when they were fire-saled at that price. Kindle is in a position to make it work because of the content sale side and at $99 would be the perfect coffee table companion in every home.
@khesI wonder how you got so good. This is really a fascinating blog, lots of stuff that I can get into. One thing I just want to say is that your Blog is so perfect! pellet burning fireplace
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I got mine nearly a year ago and I'm reading more than ever. Also takes care of my "shelf space" problem.
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I might snag a Kindle if it was free or if they use the "adoption plan" that was mentioned above... I am still enjoying using my Nook Color.
@Pete "athynz" Athens I also using Nook Color . And buy the way this is the great news.Do the have also and love meter as before? tnx
Except that graph clearly shows that it isn't a linear decline. The price decreases are getting smaller every year.
@SleepyBob Yes you are right. By looking at the changes it appears to be approaching $40 asymtotically .
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Plus it's missing 2008. But if that is included and the line actually touched the top of the 2009 and 2010 points then the line would curve and it would be more like $50 and not that great of a headline.
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chart is (slightly) wrong
DadsPad 28th Oct
the low prices are only if you want to have advertisements on your kindle. I bought a Kindle 3 for $189 and love it. The same Kindle, or latest version, that has 3g, wifi and no advertisments, still costs the same.

I do not want any advertisments while I read. I do not want advertisements for my "off" picture.

Please revise your chart and include the honesty of the advertisment kindles and the non-adverstisment kindle.
@DadsPad According to Amazon the ads only show up when the reader is idle, not while you're reading. I could probably deal with that.
@DadsPad

I got the $79 Kindle for my wife and it has the advertisements but they are only at the home screen where your list of books are at and the screensaver, there is no advertisement shown when you are reading a book.

In the home screen it is a small ad on the bottom that is really easy to ignore and the screensaver is no biggie, at least it is different than the same few screensavers that I have on my Kindle DX
@greywolf2k5 and boomchuck1

I am glad to see that the adds do not interfere with your reading pleasure, and I do hope Amazon does not change this policy in the future.

I still think the most fair thing to do is for the chart to be changed to reflect all the pricing stucture on Kindles from Amazon, not just the ones with advertisements. His chart is misleading.
@DadsPad

I actually like the ads on the Kindle. The stock pictures on idle get tiresome after they scroll through a few times.
And by free I think you mean, no longer relevant and off the market.
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Kindle
mterry@... 28th Oct
I think too many people are missing the point. ipads of any kind are just data consumption. Like a newpaper or magazine. True they are more interactive but until they can truly replace the productivity of a PC they are all destined to get cheaper and cheaper. Its just the modern day Sony Walkman.
how to do curve fitting.
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Umm... no?
brent@... 28th Oct
If you were to have done the same estimate last year by simply placing a line on the graph points than it should have been free this year. Just saying.
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For page to page reading, books are still superior to me. Also, I use a lot of reference books and the ability to quickly flip back to an index, quickly scan through several pages and being able to approximate the page placement and flip their instantly is better as well. Using the Kindle and other readers you often have to select a bookmark to jump there and that process alone can take several more seconds than would been taken if I had a paper book in my hands. Until there's a reader that can duplicate the feel of a real book I'll steer clear of the market entirely, free or not.
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as Mark Twain once said....
Freddy McGriff 28th Oct
"There are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Seems you missed a few data points... If you take that straight vector you drew and you make sure to touch the middle two bars, you end up with a curve not a vector. And the curve may approach zero but will not get there.....
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@Freddy McGriff Interesting lie damned lie statistic.
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Re: as Mark Twain once said....
tradergeorge Updated - 29th Oct
@Freddy McGriff , when Twain said that, he was quoting Disraeli.......
Sounds like a no brainer to me.
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It isn't a linear relationship
monkimonkimonki 28th Oct
As said by @SleepyBob, the graph is no where near linear. Good job.
The only way I'll ever read Kindle books is if they make them available on my PC and Laptops. I just don't believe in all those toys to simply read a story.
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@tom@... Kindle books ARE available on your PC and laptops. Just download the free app.
This post is an interesting take on razor blade marketing; but of course, the Kindle will never be free because the consumer has to have enough of an investment in the device so that a significant number of publications will be purchased in order to amortize the initial costs involved.

My wife owns a Kindle and buys a lot of books to read on it; but I would not have one for my own use, even for free, unless the design were changed so that I would not be inadvertently turning pages with my right thumb while I am holding the thing. This problem reminds me of the famous Steve Jobs suggestion when the iPhone antenna problem surfaced, "Just don't hold it that way." Also, the kindle software is not particularly user friendly. My wife has not yet figured out how to order books from Amazon, so she brings the Kindle to me, and I have to struggle to try to remember what all the buttons on the joystick are for and which buttons to push to do what I want.

I downloaded the Kindle App for my MacBook Pro and found the experience just about painless, starting with ordering and downloading a publication, setting up the pages for me to read comfortably, and reading. The laptop is slightly cumbersome for extended reading, but compared to the Kindle (which I have used quite a bit), I find it so much better for me that I occasionally download one of my wife's book selections to the MacBook if I decide to read it.

I haven't tried the iPad, but if I had to choose an e-reader, the Kindle would be near the bottom of the list, and the iPad would be on top because I have iOS 5 on my iPod Touch. This iPod is too small for me to read from for more than a few minutes , but it is very easy to use.

Maybe the Kindle Fire might work very well for me, but I doubt I'll ever want one.
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@K4thwright , I had a similar experience. I don't like the Kindle much. However, the Kindle app for iPad and the app for Android tablets is very nicely done. I use them both all the time.
@K4thwright I had the opposite experience. I love my Kindle ^^ I am using the Kindle 3 (with the keyboard).

I would say the UI is slightly tricky to get used to, but the paradigms used are consistent and easy to remember once you learn them. Takes me about 30 seconds to find and buy a book using the device.
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...and the year after that, Amazon will pay you to take it home!
good grief. Take 4 data points, ignore 2 and extrapolate the straight line from the other 2? You've got to be kidding me.

sure prices are dropping but if you use all 4 points, you get a curve which although dropping, is dropping slower and slower. Possibly asymptotic to zero

I doubt it will be free. More likely, discontinued.
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@redking44 , they won't discontinue it. It is too much of a cash cow (the books, that is). It will drop to $50 and stay there. That will amortize a lot of the manufacturing cost and ensure that people don't just get them on a whim.
@tradergeorge Well said. Besides, people won't value them if they are free - objects are valuable even if you only had to work a little while to get them.
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Your extrapolation is a bit off
mheartwood 28th Oct
If one looks properly, you should have used a curve, not a straight line, to link up those blue bars. That would mean that the basic Kindle's price would level out at just above free. I expect it will always cost something, but I think we're looking at a unit that cost as much as a single paper back book.
they're going to pay you to get the Kindle. And, if I wait until 2020, Amazon will pay me a fortune to take it off their hands.

wink
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@adornoe@... When I first bought my Nook, I said, "if they gave these away, they would make a fortune", since I spent more on books in the first month than I did on the reader. However, since psychologically, people don't value free things, they will always have to charge something for the hardware, just so people will treat them with respect.
@tradergeorge You're absolutely right! I just read your comment after writing practically the same thing elsewhere.
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Here, there???s good news to tell you: The company recently
launched a number of new fashion items! ! Fashionable
and welcome everyone to come buy. If necessary, please
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$79 is pretty much free
jabailo1 29th Oct
Ar $79 the base Kindle I bought last Saturday is pretty much free. What I love about it is that its so tailored to the reading process...that super specificity makes it a true consumer device. Easy to use. Easy to buy.
"It???s almost undeniable."

Okay, you can make a pretty line graph.

Unfortunately, businesses don't always work as pretty line graphs.
I really think $99 is the break through price needed for someone to sew up a vast retail market with a quality product. I think Kindle Fire is poised to be that tablet. Look at how the HP's sold when they were fire-saled at that price. Kindle is in a position to make it work because of the content sale side and at $99 would be the perfect coffee table companion in every home.
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I wouldn't take even a free Kindle; until it begins supporting the ePub format, there's simply too much I want that it couldn't handle, and I don't want a drawer full of eReaders.
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It is a curve that gradually levels. The decrease in cost is itself decreasing each year.

If you graph using a curve, a curve would nicely intersect each price. At the end of 2011 the price is about $50 and at the end of 2012 the price is about $25 and about $12 in 2013.

It may be offered at no cost, to facilitate other sales, long before the graph actually shows the price line hitting $25 but the decrease in price is not linear.

Edit: It is an interesting observation though. In a year or two the Kindle may be cheap enough that it is offered free to facilitate other sales. Free Kindles would increase the speed of change in the publishing industry.
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qzmhaqc 55 qyi
bmakrekdw3301-24379004643097755216206771193689 22nd Nov
vfntny,uvcepzse86, rzpds.

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